CNNMoney over the weekend reviewed the first half of the year for the markets. Among its lists of winners and losers, one stock got my attention.
Believe it or not, Hasbro (NYSE: HAS), a competitor of Mattel (NYSE: MAT) and JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK), was up quite nicely through the end of June. How nice? The stock increased in value by almost 40%. That's impressive, but is it persuasive? What I mean is, should one believe that the company's first-half strength is an undeniable indication that the trend will continue for the rest of the year?
I have been bullish on Hasbro and I think it's a great company that should benefit from the upcoming holiday season, but should doesn't necessarily imply would. We are in what I would call an all-bets-are-off market. The bears, and their claws, are slashing their way through the hallowed halls of Wall Street, and if the negative-wealth effect really gets going, thus further damaging consumer confidence, then one would have to wonder how Hasbro will fare in the second half of the year.
Without a doubt, though, put Hasbro on your watch list and perform some due diligence on the company. It's got some great brands in its portfolio like Monopoly and Transformers, and keep in mind that its Star Wars line is due to receive a nice catalytic jolt from the upcoming Star Wars: The Clone Wars animated project. Hasbro's stock dropped almost 7% in the last month. This followed a lot of up months. If the stock experiences a further pullback, and the dividend yield rises, it may become attractive.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
No matter how you slice it, whether you look at GAAP or non-GAAP statistics, Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) kicked it during the quarter. And I mean really kicked it.
Net sales for Q4 set off at warp factor 11, rising 93% to $602.5 million. Earnings per diluted share on a reported basis came in at $0.14, reversing a year-ago loss of $0.05 per share. For the full fiscal year, Activision grew revenues by 92% -- again, sales growth in the 90's! -- to $2.9 billion. Earnings per diluted share were $1.10 in 2008 versus a measly $0.28 in 2007. Take that, Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) and THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI)! Activision is truly taking advantage of consoles from Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE), and Nintendo Co. Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY). Titles such as Call of Duty 4, Guitar Hero, and Transformers drove the results -- like I always say, it's always about the quality of the slate. On an adjusted basis, earnings beat expectations by a whopping $0.12, according to Briefing.com.
I bet EA is really wishing its deal went through for Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) right about now! I believe Activision will continue to do well the rest of the year, and I love its fundamentals, but what about the stock? As of this writing, it's up about 3%. If you are looking to trade Activision, I'd probably wait until all the earnings excitement is over and be patient for pullbacks as the market may perceive that everything is priced in at the moment now that the news is out.
Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.
Earlier in the week, CBS Corporation (NYSE: CBS) sent out its earnings broadcast. Now it's time for Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA) to tell investors how things are doing. CBS and Viacom, as I'm sure you know, used to be part of the same media conglomerate, but they went their separate ways to see if being apart would help shareholder value. So it's always fun to compare the two when they release their numbers (check out Brent Archer's coverage of CBS' quarter and his feelings in terms of stock strategy).
For the fourth quarter, Viacom, which competes with companies like The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), General Electric Company (NYSE: GE)'s media asset NBC Universal, and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), was expected to earn $0.83 per share. Earnings from continuing operations came in at $0.83 per diluted share. That was quite a nice rise compared to the $0.69 per diluted share from continuing operations booked one year ago. Plus, the revenue increase for the current quarter was a nifty 19%. For the full year, earnings from continuing operations rose a more subdued 10% to $2.41 per diluted stub; this performance was accomplished on a revenue gain of 18%.
Both media networks -- Viacom owns the MTV suite of cable channels -- and filmed entertainment -- Viacom owns Paramount -- posted strong double-digit revenue gains for the quarter and year. Drivers included films by DreamWorks Animation SKG, Inc. (NYSE: DWA), which the company distributes -- those films would be Shrek the Third and Bee Movie. Also, Transformers helped to power results. Another product that tuned up the quarter was Rock Band. It was developed by Harmonix, which Viacom purchased for its MTV unit, and it is distributed by Electronic Arts (Nasdaq: ERTS). It's a rocking competitor to Activision's (Nasdaq: ATVI) Guitar Hero concept.
Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) is becoming quite the Hollywood power. Sure, the company helped launch a new sci-fi/fantasy franchise last year with Transformers, but that doesn't mean it wants to sit back and relax by the pool just yet. Instead, Hasbro is taking meetings and getting deals done.
General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures has entered into a six-year deal with Hasbro to produce four feature films using some of the toy maker's various intellectual properties. Included in the mix are the major boardgames we all know and love -- Candy Land, Clue, Battleship, and, of course, perhaps most famous of them all, Monopoly. The first project should be out around 2010.
I'm not sure about Candy Land, but a movie based on Monopoly would be pretty cool. I have no idea what Universal Pictures has in mind for these properties -- I mean, will the boardgames come to life and intrude upon the real world, or will the stories be set literally inside the boardgames themselves? -- but I think this deal has real potential. A few more big hits like Transformers will do wonders for Hasbro and its brand equity. And I do believe these movies could be big hits, especially if the right stars are attached (imagine Jim Carrey and Donald Trump in a Monopoly movie, for example).
Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Paramount studios had a pretty kickin' year at the multiplex in 2007. According to Boxofficemojo.com, Paramount came out on top in terms of market share at 15.5%. It distributed some great hits -- Transformers, the DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) films Shrek the Third and Bee Movie, Will Ferrel's Blades of Glory comedy, and Eddie Murphy's Norbit. Viacom's movie business seems to be doing better. According to the latest 10Q for the reporting period ending September 30, 2007, operating income for the filmed-entertainment segment was $71.7 million versus a loss of nearly $8 million in the previous year's comparable quarter (the nine-month period still showed a loss). So, Paramount needs to keep the momentum going this year. How will it top the power of last summer's blockbuster Transformers? With a little swashbuckling help from Indiana Jones, of course!
To get things started, the media company sent out a press release alerting fans of fast-paced adventure that the first teaser trailer for Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skullwill be released on February 14 during ABC's Good Morning America program and in theaters across the globe. For those of us who've been waiting with a will of patience that was oftentimes as excruciating and as taxing as sitting through yet another news item about Britney Spears' latest mental breakdown, this is one heck of a Valentine, although I do hate teaser trailers (they are, after all, such a tease!).
Will the new Indy flick be a big hit this summer? I think it will be, although it isn't an absolute given, since a lot of the younger demos probably find the Raiders aesthetic a bit antiquated these days; plus, there will be stiff competition from Disney's (NYSE: DIS) new Pixar cartoon Wall-E, Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Dark Knight, and Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Incredible Hulk project. Still, we're talking about George Lucas and Steven Spielberg here, and they still retain a lot of cultural pull with all demographics. Viacom and Paramount will probably be happy with the results from Crystal Skull come the summer , although I think it's safe to assume that Lucas and Spielberg will be taking a large portion of the grosses. Nevertheless, Viacom is in on the action, and I'm sure it wouldn't want it any other way.
This summer was a very profitable one for box offices nationwide, with four movies grossing over $300M, and at least another nine grossing over $100M -- signaling in a big way the resurgence of the movie industry, which had been struggling for the last few years.
The four big $300M+ winners of the summer were Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) 'sSpider-Man 3, which grossed $336M in the U.S., Viacom, Inc (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount's Shrek the Third, which grossed $320M, Transformers, also from Paramount, which grossed $311M, and The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS)'s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, which grossed $308M.
Three of the four were third installments of well established big-budget franchises, so their success is hardly shocking, but the Transformers success clearly marks the start of a new blockbuster franchise (the release date of the sequel has been announced -- June 26, 2009). The robot-action extravaganza, which was directed by Michael Bay, was definitely a surprise, as I remarked in my summer movie preview that Transformers "has flop written all over it... there cannot possibly be enough substance in a story about alien robots that transform into vehicles to make this a hit with the general public." I was wrong -- very wrong. The movie killed at the box office, grossing over $330M on a $150M budget, and prompting a re-release on IMAX, which opened last week.
Last week I blogged about the premiere of the long-awaited Transformers movie and how Susan Linn, a psychologist who co-founded the Campaign for a Commercial-Free Childhood, said the movie was improperly marketed towards children.
While Ms. Lind's complaint fell on deaf ears, Transformers rocked the box-office this week with $67.6M in the box office in its first weekend and $152.5M worldwide since its opening one-week ago today – beating the original Spider-Man with the biggest first-week revenues for a non-sequel.
The Wall Street Journal believes the Transformers debut, which research firm Merriman Curhan Ford & Co said was nearly twice as strong as the studio's expectations; has a strong chance of hitting $300M in domestic ticket sales.
Could this summer hit become a franchise?
Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount has been without a new franchise in nearly a decade. With key cast members Shia LaBeouf and others already optioned for another movie, will Transformers be their first? The answer has to be yes: Transformers 2 is slated for 2009, according to IMDB.com. Producer Lorenzo di Bonaventura is already in talks with director Michael Bay, who kept the movie down to a $150M price-tag, half the cost of Pirates and Spider-Man sequels.
Paramount has gone without a franchise for ten years and now has the opportunity to have three by 2008. The other potentials: The Spiderwick Chronicles, directed by Mark Waters, and a new version of Star Trek directed by J.J. Abrams, although that's already an established brand name. Sadly, neither of these directors compares to Michael Bay and his re-creation of the Transformers, but the potential for a franchise is there.
While Transformers fans will wait in agony over the next two years for a sequel, Viacom's Paramount looks to be sitting pretty with dreams of being in franchise heaven. Keep an eye on the big screen to find out if Paramount's dreams come ever true.
Boosted by its licensing rights and marketing agreements for such characters as Spider-Man, Fantastic Four and Transformers, quantitative analyst Vahan Janjigian recommends toy maker Hasbro (NYSE: HAS).
The editor of The Forbes Growth Investor says, "Hasbro has done an outstanding job of selecting licensing opportunities," noting that licensing agreements with Lucas Licensing and Marvel Entertainment give Hasbro rights to develop toys based on Star Wars movies and Marvel comic books.
The Marvel deal, he notes, provides an excellent example. Janjigian says, "Its numerous comic book characters, some of which are more than 40 years old, offer plenty of potential for future sales, especially as more of them make it onto the big screen."
He states, "A renewed focus on core brands and licensed merchandise has led to strong results in the past year. First quarter net revenues surged 33.6% year-over-year to $625.3 million."
Spider-Man branded merchandise, he observes, which benefited from the release of the movie Spider-Man 3, was responsible for more than half of the growth in volume.
The recent opening of Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, he adds, could translate into brisk toy sales in the second quarter. Indeed, he forecasts, with seven films based on Marvel properties projected to be released over the next two years, Hasbro's prospects look "extremely promising."
Further, he says, "Hasbro should also benefit from the much hyped Transformers film." In fact, he notes, licensing revenues should receive a boost from the more than 230 Transformers-related agreements entered into by third-parties expecting to capitalize on the film.
He explains, "Transformers could signal more movie opportunities for HAS owned properties, which may further boost brand awareness and toy sales. Indeed, a G.I. Joe movie is already in the works."
The advisor concludes, "And let's not forget the company's more traditional products. The company has some of the most recognized brand names in the toy industry. Milton Bradley and Parker Brothers make classic board games such as Monopoly and Scrabble."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest investment ideas and market commentary from the financial newsletter community.
The long-awaited Transformers movie premieres tonight. If you're in your late-20s or early 30s, and watched the Transformers cartoons as a kid, you probably have a desire to see this "PG-13" action extravaganza.
But beware: According to Susan Linn, a psychologist who co-founded the Campaign for a Commercial-Free Childhood, Transformers is being marketed towards children. Brooks Barnes of the New York Timessaid in an article this morning that the live-action film is packed with cars and planes that turn into "blood-thirsty alien robots." In a PG-13 fight between good and evil, do you expect anything less?
The problem, according to Linn, is that Dreamworks and Hasbro, Inc (NYSE: HAS) are going after preschoolers with their "widespread and irresponsible" marketing of the movie. "Movie studios have been using toys to market movies in unfair ways for a long time," says Linn. "But this is a movie that was designed from the beginning to sell toys and that makes this case particularly egregious."
Yesterday we learned that Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) is taking another shot at the movie promotion business by pushing (for a cut of the action) the National Geographic movie "Arctic Tale." Starbuck's initial effort, last year's "Akeela and the Bee," had indifferent results.
While most of the big releases for 2007 already have commercial tie-ins, I thought about other companies that might make money by offering some targeted marketing. Perhaps
Last year I previewed the big-budget summer movies, giving you a look at ten interesting films that were on the docket for the summer of 2006. This year I'm back with an even longer list (bloated like these films' budgets) of 15 movies you may want to escape to -- or possibly run screaming from.
Of these fifteen movies, Spiderman 3 and ten others are sequels, which in itself indicates something about the state of the industry (And I didn't even include Rush Hour 3 in this list, because, honestly, who wants to see that?). Two of the remaining four movies, Transformers and The Simpsons, are based on animated television shows, leaving only two original ideas in the whole lot -- Knocked Up and Ratatouille. Please, don't shoot the messenger.
Anyway, here is the list, chronologically, of the movies that Hollywood's brain-trust believes you will shell out your cash to see in the air-conditioned darkness of your local movie-house, along with my opinion of how they'll fare. The first on the list, Spider-Man 3, is already out in Asia, but will not be released here until May. All release dates below are for the U.S.
5/04 - Spider-Man 3, Sony Corp's (NYSE: SNE) Sony Pictures Being the first blockbuster of the summer almost guarantees a successful open, and the popularity of the franchise seals that guarantee. One problem, however, is that "success" measured by any normal means won't be enough, as this movie had an estimated budget of $258M.
5/11 - 28 Weeks Later, News Corp's (NYSE: NWS) 20th Century Fox The highlight of the horror/zombie genre for the summer, this follows the surprise success of Danny Boyle's 28 Days Later, which reinvented the zombie film with faster zombies and smarter characters.
5/18 - Shrek the Third, Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Paramount Pictures One of the only cartoon franchises that has held its own against Pixar (Ice Age being the other), the draw of this fairytale romp is that while kids love the story, there are enough winks at the adult audience to make parents happy to take them.
5/25 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) Money in the bank for Disney, and since it was shot simultaneous with the second Pirates installment, it wasn't even as expensive to make as this summer's other budget hog, Spider-Man 3.
The line between the movie industry and the toy industry is faint, and this summer may disappear altogether as Hasbro Inc. (NYSE:HAS), Paramount and Dreamworks unleash the new Transformers movie. On the 4th of July, the live-action war-to-end-all-wars between the Autobots and Decepticons will likely dominate the screen, and the toy shelves, of America. Already the third most-recognized toy brand, with $3 billion in career sales, this film should drive it into first place.
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The line between the movie industry and the toy industry is faint, and this summer may disappear altogether as Hasbro Inc. (NYSE:
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