The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.
Early in the week, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that the big earnings gainers will include EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), and Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC), which are expected to post profits of $2.24 per share (up 64.7% from a year ago), $1.48 per share (up 52.7%) and $2.26 per share (up 61.1%) respectively. All three of them have offered positive surprises in recent quarters, and analysts on average recommend buying EOG and Anadarko. Other expected big earnings gainers early in the week include Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), Comstock Resources Inc. (NYSE: CRK), and MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA). The earnings of phosphates producer Innophos Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: IPHS) are expected to have risen 92.3% to $3.37 per share. Innophos beat estimates in the previous quarter by a whopping 210%, and analysts have been impressed with Innophos's lack of debt and pricing gains despite the slowing economy, so, on average, they recommend buying IPHS.
Also early in the week, analysts expect Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT), Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU), and Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK) to report that their profits fell 52.9% to $0.33 per share, 45.1% to $0.67 per share, and 41.2% to $0.67 per share, respectively. These companies have tended to beat estimates in recent quarters, and the consensus recommendations of analysts are to buy them. However, PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI), one of the largest private mortgage insurance providers in the U.S., is expected to take another hit as the housing slump drags on. The California-based company is expected to have widened its net loss from $1.04 per share a year ago to $2.43 per share in the most recent quarter. Its shares are down 84.5% from a year ago, and have been trading recently near their 52-week low.
The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts says, "While stocks in the equipment and services group tend to move with oil prices in the near term, their profits depend more on exploration spending than on commodity prices."
"Concerns about slowing demand for crude oil and re?ned products both in the U.S. and overseas have many investors worried. But investors in the equipment and services group should not panic.
"Most producers continue to spend aggressively. And U.S. crude-oil inventories remain well below the average for this time of year, with fewer than 20 days of supply in storage.
"Demand for offshore-drilling services remains strong, giving Transocean excellent growth potential. Consensus estimates project per-share profits will rise 69% in 2008 and 15% in 2009. Transocean, the world's largest offshore drilling contractor, operates in every major drilling region.
"A combination of tight global rig supplies and the ongoing discovery of new offshore reserves have driven rig lease rates higher and kept Transocean's fleet busy. The company's largest, most expensive rigs are 95% sold out for 2009, and the backlog is growing.
With a turn of the calendar page, we drift into the middle portion of the current quarter, but the earnings season rolls on. Among the many companies scheduled to report quarterly results this coming week are Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Whole Foods Market International (NASDAQ: WFMI). Let's take a look at which companies Wall Street analysts are expecting to be among the top earnings gainers and decliners this week.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.
Wednesday saw the stock market register another data point of ignominious distinction: the S & P 500 entered bear market territory -- a drop of more than 20% from its October 2007 peak.
One would like to make a case for a rebound for the S&P 500 and the DJIA, but current economic fundamentals (unfortunately) make a stronger case for the opposite: sky high gasoline and oil prices, declining disposable income in several income groups, rising inflation, the worst housing market in more than 15 years, the probability of additional, substantial mortgage-backed asset write-offs, more than 400,000 jobs lost in the first six months of 2008. The prognosis: tough times ahead for the Dow. Let's hope it holds psychological support at 11,000 or technical support at 10,750.
If the Dow doesn't hold the above support levels ... well, let's not go there. Instead, let's focus on the positive. Are there any decent plays in these difficult times for the market and economy?
There are, for investors who can tolerate moderate risk or high risk, and who are not interested in a short-term trade of six months or less. These are longer-term investments where the goal is a double-digit, average, annual, total return on equity over 3-5 years. Investors should also be capable of tolerating a 20-25% pull-back.
The need for oil drilling services will continue even if the price of oil declines, according to Richard Lehmann. Here, in his The ETF Investor, he looks at a favorite way for investors to play this trend.
"Oil prices have a triple or quadruple price boost associated with them. The first is supply/demand dynamics, the second is the weak dollar, the third is speculative fervor and the fourth inflation fears.
"A pundit said that last year it took 65 Euros to buy a barrel of oil and today it still takes 65 Euros to buy a barrel of oil. This illustrates the effect the weak dollar is having on U.S. prices and the international price of oil.
"Inflation protection used to be the province of gold, but now it seems oil is serving a similar function. We think the current oil bubble has not run its course.
"One of our past recommendations, the Oil Service Holders Trust (NYSE: OIH), was first suggested in February 2006 at a price of $101.50. We recommended it again in December 2007 at a price of $179.83.
Transocean (NYSE: RIG) is the world's largest offshore drilling contractor and a leading provider of drilling management services worldwide. The company owns, or operates, a contract drilling fleet of 138 mobile units, including 39 high-specification floaters, 29 midwater floaters, 10 high-specification jackups and 56 standard jackups. It operates in the world's major offshore oil-producing regions, including the Gulf of Mexico, the North Sea, Canada, the Middle East, Brazil, Africa and Asia. Chevron (NYSE: CVX), BP (NYSE: BP) and Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR) are major customers.
The stock has been a steady gainer, since the January market downdraft, advancing on word of solid quarterly results, new and renewed contracts and optimistic analyst remarks. Essentially, a global shortage of deep-water drilling units has established a long-term, favorable pricing environment for the company.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the oil powwow won't solve anything, but it will give you an opening in the stocks.
Today we learn that "dozens of world leaders and executives" are going to Saudi Arabia to find out how to lower oil prices this weekend.
Yep, there we go. Short the oil futures. They will no doubt come up with a plan that will produce much more oil and curtail its use, bringing oil down sharply -- perhaps to $100.
Yeah, right.
Weak dollar, speculators, funds indexed to commodities, intransigent Saudi Arabians, terrorist activities.
I believe that all of those factors combined have lifted oil by about $20. But that could be overstating things -- it's no more than that.
Because if there was a lot of oil, you would see those futures smacked down to levels where all sort of cockamamie ideas for oil alternatives would disappear. Right now, with oil at $130, we could produce an alternative from oil shale that would be bountiful and that has been the spare capacity that can be brought on in the next four years.
In a challenging market amid an uncertain U.S. economic landscape, identifying long-term, promising investment opportunities becomes a difficult task. Further, to make the investment equation even more challenging, there's election risk, as well, with the 2008 U.S. Presidential election five months away.
Still, risk-adjusted investment opportunities exist. Accordingly, here's a 'Fab Five' that should rank with the best the equity markets have to offer, 3-5 years out.
(Note: Don't buy these stocks if you're interested in a short-term trade of six months or less. These are longer-term investments where the goal is a double-digit, average, annual, total return on equity over 3-5 years.)
Potash (NYSE: POT). Current Price: $212, p/e 47. Revised Stop Loss: $170. Potash remains the best of a very good fertilizer bunch, due to its 20% global market share in the namesake fertilizer. Consider buying POT on a pull-back to $202-203, but keep in mind Potash may not retreat to that level.
Mosaic (NYSE: MOS). Current Price: $132, p/e 40. Revised Stop Loss: $97. Mosaic also is well-positioned in phosphate and crop nutrients. Further, the fact that 66% of its revenue is internationally based is especially appealing, given the U.S. economic slowdown.
Transocean (NYSE: RIG). Current Price: $144, p/e 10. Revised Stop Loss: $110. RIG offers deepwater oil drilling services in all regions of the world, and it's an oil-thirsty world.
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX). Current Price: $114, p/e 14. Revised Stop Loss: $69. Copper / gold / molybdenum miner Freeport is one of a handful of companies that have the economies of scale to compete in the global mining sector of the early 21st century, and it boasts impressive clients, to boot. Consider buying FCX on a pull-back to $111-113, but keep in mind Freeport may not retreat to that level.
CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX). Current Price: $66, p/e 23. Revised Stop Loss: $48. Ride the railroad resurgence with this superior trade / commodity / freight transport company. The rails are in the transportation sweet spot: truck transport costs are rising with fuel costs, and the U.S. highway system is inadequate, with increased congestion likely, pending future investment.
Top Pick: Potash.
Safest Pick: CSX Corp.
Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.
Oil driller Transocean, Inc. (NYSE: RIG), whose shares have probed, but have been unable to move and stay permanently above $160 -- may have received the catalyst it needs to reach loftier price levels.
Transocean's shares jumped $8.34, ending at $155.54 after Bloomberg News reported that Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR), Brasil's state-controlled oil company, leased about 80% percent of the world's deepest-drilling offshore rigs to explore prospects. That included the Western Hemisphere's biggest discovery in decades, the Tupi field. Further, the activity of Petroleo, also known as Petrobras, is forcing up day-rates for oil rigs. PBR also closed higher Thursday, up $2.00 to $68.27.
Further, Petrobras is in talks with Transocean to extend leases as much as three years ahead of expiration, Robert Long, chief executive officer for the Houston-based RIG, told Bloomberg News. Also, Petrobras plans to start pumping oil from Tupi in Q1 2009. Tupi is the largest oil find in North America since the 1976 Cantarelli field discovery in the Gulf of Mexico.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: MedicNova, Transocean and Lennox were today's noteworthy initiations:
Rodman & Renshaw is positive on MedicNova's (NASDAQ:MNOV) two primary products in development: MN-221, for the treatment of severe asthma and MN-166, an oral treatment for multiple sclerosis. The firm is also positive on MNOV's valuation; shares were initiated with an Outperform rating and $9 target.
Transocean (NYSE:RIG) is UBS's Top Pick as they believe it is the primary beneficiary of rising deepwater dayrates. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $201 target.
Suntrust initiated Lennox (NYSE:LII) with a Neutral rating and cites near-term visibility.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Dean Foods (NYSE:DF) was initiated with an Outperform rating and $29 target.
Goldman started Parker-Hannifin (NYSE:PH) with a Neutral rating and $92 target.
Transocean Inc. (NYSE: RIG), the world's largest offshore drilling contractor, reported its first quarter earnings this morning, and surprised Wall Street by posting a profit that more than doubled for the quarter.
The company said its quarterly profit jumped to $1.19 billion boosted by soaring crude oil prices. The offshore drilling contractor also benefited from strong sales from its acquired competitor GlobalSantaFe Corp. Going into today's earnings announcement, analysts had been expecting the company to post a profit of $3.33 a share, but Transocean surprised everyone by earning $3.80 a share during the quarter. This is a nice rebound from the same period last year when the the world's largest offshore oil driller reported earnings of $2.62 a share.
Looking at revenue, Transocean said its quarterly sales sales more than doubled to $3.11 billion, compared with $1.33 billion in the same period a year ago, helped by strong sales from GlobalSantaFe. Analysts, on average, were expecting the company show $3.05 billion in revenue, according to Thomson Reuters.
Global oil demand, despite oil being more than $100 per barrel, remains solid. Further, there are increasing signs that the aforementioned international demand is likely to keep oil's price at lofty levels, even with a U.S. recession. That's bad news if you buy gasoline or oil, but good news if you own shares of Transocean.
Transocean (NYSE: RIG) offers deepwater drilling services in the world's major offshore oil-producing regions, including Africa, Asia, Brazil, Canada, India, Middle East, Gulf of Mexico, and the North Sea.
In general, analysts see RIG generating an 18%-25% total return on equity for 2008-2009, with an upside possible, given the company's strong position in deepwater drilling, which offers a higher return potential than shallow water drilling. And currently, it looks like a 2008 revenue upside is in sight for Transocean,
Further, given a capacity shortage sector-wide for deepwater rigs, dayrates have increased substantially, and look for RIG's pricing power to continue into 2009 (RIG's dayrate for 2009 is now $600,000 for high-spec, ultra-deepwater rigs). Prospects for Transocean's jackup rig market are not as bright, with a possible oversupply in early 2009. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for are $14.15/$16.82.
Day one of the two-day FDA Anesthetic/Life Support Drugs & Drug Safety/Risk Management Advisory Committees meeting: Purdue Pharma's NDA for Oxycontin.
Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) to report Q1 earnings; conference call Tuesday at 10:00am.
Tuesday, May 6
Day two of the two-day FDA Anesthetic/Life Support Drugs & Drug Safety/Risk Mgmt Advisory Committees meeting: Cephalon's (NASDAQ:CEPH) sNDA for Fentora.
Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 12:00pm.
The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.
The U.S. stock market's summer doldrums continue. 
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Transocean
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