Fuel prices seem to be the number one concern on just about everyone's mind lately, and it seems like things are not going to be getting better any time soon. As prices have risen to record levels, many of us have decided to cut back on our driving, especially on long trips in order to save a little on our fuel prices. Well, the airlines are no different, and there's an interesting report today in The Wall Street Journal showing how airlines are cutting back on long flights in order to save a little on fuel consumption.
It is a pretty nasty cycle we are seeing with the airlines. The higher fuel costs have led to higher tickets prices and extra fees. These higher prices have led to less air traffic, and that has led to an even greater need to find more ways to cover rising costs. Definitely a tough situation.
The new way they are starting to combat the high costs of flying is by cutting back, or postponing long international flights, in particular flights that are in excess of 12 hours.
"Companies dependent on consumer spending have been under a cloud on Wall Street," cautions Chuck Carlson, the industry's leading expert on dividend reinvestment plans.
"However, Disney (NYSE: DIS) is one of those consumer-dependent stocks where conventional wisdom may not be correct," he adds in his The DRIP Investor.
"With $4-per-gallon gasoline, one would think that the high cost of travel would take some steam out of the firm's theme park attendance. However, recent results on this front were decent, and the firm's other businesses have held up, too.
"To be sure, a prolonged recession would impact business. Still, Disney has done a nice job of positioning its theme parks as an affordable vacation for families, and that should help it continue to weather economic weakness.
"Disney surprised Wall Street with the resiliency of its theme-park and resort business in the fiscal second quarter. Revenue for the unit jumped 11% in the quarter. Results were aided by a boost in international visitors taking advantage of the weak dollar.
Apparently rock musician Sammy Hagar is not one of U.S. Sen. John Warner's (R-Virginia) constituents.
Sen. Warner has suggested that the U.S. Congress might want to consider reimposing a national speed limit to save gasoline and possibly ease fuel prices, The Associated Press reported.
However, Warner has not specifically sponsored legislation calling for a roll-back to 55 miles per hour: he has only asked U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman to research which speed limit would provide optimum gasoline efficiency given current technology, and also wants to know if the Bush Administration would support a Congressional effort to mandate a lower speed limit, The AP reported.
Traders have pushed prices through the $142 mark this morning, with the precious crude trading as high as $142.45, but have cooled off a bit and are now sitting at $141.06, which is $0.09 higher on the day. As Douglas McIntyre discussed earlier, typically such high oil prices are expected to put a crimp in demand, but this time around that may not be the case at all. Already many analysts are stating that demand may not fall too much, even with the record high gasoline prices.
We should get a slightly clearer picture on just how true that is later today when the Department of Energy releases the weekly inventory numbers. Last week inventories increased, but that is expected to reverse this week, and analysts are predicting this week's oil inventory numbers to actually show a decline of around 1.2 million barrels (compared with a 800,000 barrel increase that was reported last week).
Boeing, which already has delayed its new 787 Dreamliner 14 months, announced Tuesday it will know "soon" whether a supplier's damaged part on the fourth of six test planes will affect the program, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.
The mid-body fuselage section built by Global Aeronautica LLC, a venture with Alenia North America, was damaged "by an Alenia employee not following proper work procedures" in Charleston, S.C., Boeing said, Bloomberg News reported. Boeing said it resolved the issue, but it is currently evaluating the error's impact on the plane's timetable.
Boeing's shares (NYSE: BA) fell 52 cents to $65.20 on the news in Tuesday morning trading.
Stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer said he's "not going to think the worst" regarding a possible timetable change, until Boeing knows definitively if it will affect production and roll-out.
No, the airlines haven't started charging by the pound. At least not yet...
Jokes aside, nobody told the airlines there'd be days like these, to paraphrase John Lennon.
Jet fuel costs -- up 84% in the past year alone -- have skyrocketed, along with the cost of just about every other product derived from the world's most vital commodity, and the airlines are looking for every conceivable way to reduce weight, reduce wind/resistance drag, and increase operational efficiency, The New York Times reported Wednesday.
The major carriers are replacing heavier seats with lighter ones, cleaning engines and planes more often, reducing the fresh water available on flights, and plugging into electric outlets instead of idling engines at the gate, among other changes, in order to cut fuel consumption.
More air travel changes ahead
Moreover, the changes -- and charges -- have only just begun, so says stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer. "Everyone knows about the added bag charges, a pain in the neck, for sure. But it could get worse," says Bauer, who also flies on a major carrier about 5-7 times per year. "In the winter you could see a per pound baggage charge, or something along those lines. So don't pack that extra winter coat when you fly this December."
Boeing said on Monday its 787 Dreamliner would make its first test flight in Q4 2008, reiterating that it would make its revised test flight date for the next-generation airliner, Reuters reported Tuesday.
First deliveries of the plane were also on schedule for Q3 2009, said Dmitry Krol, Boeing's director of communications in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States, Reuters reported.
Boeing's (NYSE: BA) shares rose 53 cents to $73.69 in Monday afternoon trading.
Independent stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Monday Boeing's reiteration of the company's first-flight time deadline was not gratuitous.
The oil surge, which gives new indications daily that it's evolving into the world's third oil shock, bodes tougher times for airlines, and travelers alike, many analysts agree.
Moreover, those tougher times may propel "creative and avant-garde" ideas and strategies to cope with the more-challenging flying environment, by both airlines and travelers, so says C. Leonard Bauer, independent stock analyst.
American Airlines (NYSE: AMR) took the first, bold - - and controversial - - step in the 'era of new flying rules' by announcing that it would charge passengers $15 each way to check their first bag, The Dallas Morning News reported. American also reduced its flying schedule by 11-12% at the same time.
Bauer said travelers should brace for more a-la-carte changes from the major carriers, and some truly creative ones, at that. "The airlines will be looking at every way to reduce fuel usage and cover those expenses from added weight," Bauer said, "When oil was at $20 a barrel, weight was a cost factor, but now at more than $125 a barrel, it's a going-concern factor. These high fuel costs can and will force some airlines out of business if they can't recover these costs. 'Light flight' is in." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares of any airline.
Shares of AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR) crashed today on Wall Street on a string a bad news out of its principal subsidiary, American Airlines, as current record-high oil prices continue to wreak havoc on the airline industry.
Oil prices have been continuing to soar, and earlier today crude traded through the $133 mark, and nearly busted $134, trading as high as $133.82.
What does this mean for airlines? You guessed it... major changes in order to combat the rising costs of keeping their planes in the air, and after announcing a few new changes today, AMR took the full brunt of Wall Street, as nervous traders pushed the already beaten-up stock down another 24.2%.
So what exactly got the market so spooked? Well, I am not really sure which of the following was the final nail in the coffin; you can almost just take your pick:
The company announced that it would be slashing the number of flights that it offers
The company announced that it would start charging for all checked luggage
And, last but not least, the company is being forced to reduce its workforce
We have all been there before, standing beside the luggage conveyor belt after a long flight, quietly praying for our luggage to magically pop out of that little window and slide our way. When our luggage finally shows up, it typically means the end of a long day that generally has the potential to stress out most travelers.
For me at least, as long as I get my luggage I am satisfied with my trip. But for a lot of us, there are several factors we use to grade the airlines, and a recent survey shows that customer dissatisfaction is running at near record level lows. These factors include anything from planes leaving and arriving on time, to the service inside the plane from fight attendants, to just how easily mishaps get handled by the agents at the ticketing desks.
Having lived in Europe the past few years, I have been no stranger to the long distance flight back and forth to the States. I suppose I have traveled roughly 100,000 miles on airlines over the past couple of years, and I have to say that for the most part I have had very pleasant experiences. My girlfriend was unfortunate enough to have lost some luggage for a week over this past Christmas, but other than that, I have been pretty lucky.
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Boeing is worth an evaluation.
In general, analysts expect 3-5% revenue growth in FY 2008, and 7-10% in FY 2009 as Boeing's increased aircraft production to meet high order backlogs offsets production delays in the 787 Dreamliner.
Moreover, although not to give short-shrift to Boeing's Integrated Defense Systems division, now the world's second-largest military contractor, behind Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), the major driver of BA's future value-added will continue to be its commercial aviation operation, led by the next-generation 787 Dreamliner.
Higher oil prices and the surging aviation fuel costs they imply may reduce the benefits of an airliner merger, such as the potential deal between United Airlines and U.S. Airways, but they don't eliminate a merger's long-term positives, an analyst argued Tuesday.
Further, C. Leonard Bauer, independent stock analyst, told BloggingStocks Tuesday the potential United-US Airways union would benefit the sector in that it would be the second merger this year among major airlines in the United States, also known as the legacy carriers.
Shares of UAL Corp. (NYSE: UAUA), parent of United Airlines, are down 88 cents to $14.10, while US Airways (NYSE: LCC) are down 55 cents to $7.79 in Tuesday trading.
Sector right-sizing
"The deal would take another legacy carrier off the table, after the Delta-Northwest merger, and that can only help the sector from an earnings standpoint," Bauer said. "The United States airline sector leads the league in airline route redundancy and duplicate hubs. This second deal would further tighten the sector."
United Airlines, the second largest U.S. carrier, increased almost all domestic airfares by 3-5%, due to surging fuel costs, The Associated Press reported Friday.
It was the third increase in the past two weeks, The AP reported, for United (NYSE: UAUA), which like the U.S.'s other major carriers, is struggling to maintain a viable business model amid the largest increase in aviation fuel costs since the world's second oil shock in 1979-80.
Shares of United fell 82 cents to $14.58 on the news in Friday afternoon trading.
United's latest fare hike takes place just two days after Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) CEO Richard Anderson said domestic carriers will need to raise tickets 15-20% just to break even at existing fuel prices, The AP reported. Surging fuel costs
Independent stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer, formerly of Prudential, said cost factors affecting aviation will create a stark travel choice for business and leisure travelers, at least for the immediate future, including this summer: if you're flying a few months from now, there's an 80-90% chance you'll pay considerably more, he said.
Meanwhile, oil Friday flirted with yet another all-time high. Oil rose 73 cents to $115.59 per barrel, while wholesale unleaded gasoline gained 1 cent to $2.95 per gallon. On Thursday billionaire investor and oil industry guru T. Boone Pickens told Bloomberg News oil is headed for $125 per barrel.
The EIA does not expect much of a price rise beyond the $3.60 level because it expects U.S. consumers to cutback consumption to contain their transportation fuel bills amid the record-high prices. And, in fact, there's considerable evidence to support the EIA's demand projection: for the first time in more than a decade, weekly U.S. gasoline sales have declined on a year-over-year basis for more than two months.
Gasoline prices have continued their charge up to $4 a gallon today, rising to a new record high of $3.418 after jumping 1.9 cents last night.
Gas prices have been rising sharply over the past few months in reaction to record high oil prices and a weak dollar, and some analysts are already predicting that we will be seeing $4 a gallon before it is all said and done. Diesel prices also rose to a new high, hitting $4.146 per gallon.
As we noted in earlier discussions, gas prices are only expected to move higher in the next few months as more drivers hit the road for their summer vacations. The heavy demand summer driving months always apply upward pressure to prices, and despite the current high prices, summer demand will definitely push prices even higher.