How can exports not rebound? Last year ended on a sour note after posting record results, and 2009 is by all accounts likely to be ugly. The tourism and travel industry is expected to shed more than 200,000 jobs this year. Fortunately, there's a light at the end of the tunnel. The U.S. Department of Commerce expects international visits to the United States to come back in 2010 - after its first forecasted year of decline (i.e., 2009) since 2003.

This year, international travel to the United States is expected to fall 8%. The following year, however, U.S. travel exports are expected to gain 5%, with 5% annual increases through the end of 2013. We'll come out ahead in all this, but it's going to take some time.

Will the influx of foreign visitors over the next four years be enough to turn the travel industry in the United States around? It's too soon to tell right now, and much will depend on the contributions made by domestic routes. Needless to say, even this glimmer of hope must be welcome to investors committed to the airline and hotel sectors.

U.S. travel exports to rebound in 2010 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 26 May 2009 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"If there's one sector that stands to benefit handsomely from a further slide in oil or, at least, a moderation in crude's rally: the airlines," explains energy sector expert Elliott Gue.

In The Energy Strategist, he says, "Airlines may make a terrible long-term investment but can be an outstanding short-term trade." Here he looks at Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) and, for the even more speculatively-inclined, US Airways (NYSE: LCC).

"Some investors will rightfully cringe from any mention of this sector; after all, the airlines have consistently lost money throughout their post-deregulation history.

"Most of the majors have declared bankruptcy on multiple occasions since that time. However, we've traded the airlines on a few occasions; we took some triple-digit percentage gains in the airlines back in 2005.

"The airlines' leverage to oil prices is well known. Expectations are so low, in fact, that several major air carriers actually managed to beat consensus expectations in the second quarter.

"And although sentiment is already at rock-bottom, there's a real basis for cautious optimism. First, if I'm right about oil, fuel costs won't rise appreciably in the third quarter. This huge headwind is dissipating.

Continue reading Speculative flyers: Delta (DAL) and US Airways (LCC)

Speculative flyers: Delta (DAL) and US Airways (LCC) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 Aug 2008 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"The Grand Old Opry's owner is sparkling after a billionaire buys a big stake," says Bill Martin in his top-notch advisory service, BullMarket.com.

He notes, "TRT Holdings, an investment vehicle for Robert Rowling. has quietly taken a 10%+ stake in Gaylord Entertainment (NYSE: GET), becoming its largest shareholder.

"The latest buys came as shares of the $1 billion market cap company hit a multi-year low. Rowling's firm bought more than 608,000 shares of Gaylord at $20.44, increasing its holdings to 4.693 million shares, or an 11.49% stake.

"Nashville-based Gaylord owns and operates hotel properties, including the Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center in Nashville, Tennessee and the Gaylord Palms Resort and Convention Center in Kissimmee, Florida.

"The company also owns and operates the Radisson Hotel at Opryland and the famous Grand Ole Opry in Nashville. Other business include a Nashville radio station, a paddle wheel showboat, performance venues, a golf course located near the Opryland complex, and a corporate events production company.

"With a projected net worth of $6.2 billion, Rowling was #158 on the latest Forbes list of the World's Billionaires. The press-shy Rowling rarely pops up as a major shareholder in a public company, and has only done so three times in recent years, including Gaylord.

Continue reading Gaylord Entertainment (GET): Grand gains from Grand Ole Opry?

Gaylord Entertainment (GET): Grand gains from Grand Ole Opry? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 Jul 2008 09:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"If you think filling up an SUV is painful, try footing the bill for a massive 1,000-foot ocean liner -- or in the case of Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL), an entire fleet of 84 floating cities," notes value investor Nathan Slaughter.

In his Half-Priced Stocks he explains, "Despite unprecedented fuel costs, the company continues to power forward." Here's his bullish review.

"Last quarter, Carnival shelled out $530 per metric ton for fuel, up sharply from $330 per ton a year ago. And after pumping about 800,000 metric tons, the company rang up a total fuel bill of $425 million.

"For the year, management is expecting fuel costs to come in about $750 million higher than in 2007, which will trim earnings by about $0.92 per share. Fortunately, the company is in a position to absorb those higher costs.

"Over the past three months, two million passengers have boarded a Carnival ship, for an occupancy rate of 104.8% (indicating some berths held more than two guests). And those visitors paid $2.6 billion for their tickets and plunked down another $743 million in the lounges, casinos and gift shops after they arrived on board.

Continue reading Carnival (CCL): Cruising for profits

Carnival (CCL): Cruising for profits originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 16 Jul 2008 12:04:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.