Analyst Upgrades

• Marriott (MAR) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Quest Diagnostics (DGX) and Owens-Illinois (OI) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• FirstMerit (FMER) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• Safeway (SWY) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Babcock & Wilcox (BWC) to buy from neutral, as well as Jacobs Engineering (JEC) and W. R. Berkley (WRB) to neutral from sell, at Goldman.
• Pioneer Natural (PXD) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Teekay Tankers (TNK) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.

The Travelers' (TRV) stock, which I first wrote about on April 24, 2009, at a price of $30.50, continued to progress this winter, and I obviously still like the business model at this juncture.

The Traveler should approach $70 by end of 2011, boosted by 2% to 4% premium revenue growth, as the insurance company takes advantage of new business opportunities. Prudent underwriting, a superior balance sheet, and a $1.44 annual dividend add to the positive mix. Hence, the view from here argues TRV is still undervalued.

The view in August argued that The Travelers (TRV), which I first wrote about on April 24, 2009, at a price of $30.50, was undervalued. That proved to be on the mark, as the stock rose out of a base near $50 to trade above $57 this fall.

However, the good news is that The Travelers pulled back a few bucks in November, creating still another opportunity risk-tolerant investors to establish a position in a quality insurer and earn an outsized gain.

The Travelers should approach $70 by mid-2011, boosted by 2% to 4% premium revenue growth, as the insurance company takes advantage of new business opportunities. Prudent underwriting, a superior balance sheet and a $1.44 annual dividend add to the positive mix.

Analyst Upgrades

• Verisk (VRSK) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Marriott (MAR) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Bernstein.
• Jefferies upgraded Teekay (TK) and Tsakos Energy (TNP) to Buy from Hold.
• Cadence Design (CDNS) was upgraded to sector perform from underperform at RBC Capital.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded NV Energy (NVE) to buy from underperform and Education Realty Trust (EDR) to neutral from underperform.
• Men's Wearhouse (MW) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel.
• William Blair upgraded Atheros (ATHR) to outperform from market perform.
• Freeport McMoran (FCX) was upgraded to buy from hold at Argus.

Analyst Upgrades

• Oppenheimer upgraded VeriSign (VRSN) to outperform from perform, citing better-than-expected domain names trends and the potential for a sizeable share buyback. The firm has a $33 price target for shares.
• Oppenheimer also upgraded EMC (EMC) to outperform from perform, citing valuation and expectations for strong Q2 results. The firm set a $22 price target for shares.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Juniper (JNPR) to overweight from neutral, citing valuation and its longer-term outlook. The firm keeps a $31 price target for shares.
• Kilroy Realty (KRC) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Veolia Environment (VE) was upgraded to buy from add at WestLB.
• QEP Resources (QEP) was upgraded to positive from neutral at Susquehanna.

All in all, there are many advantages to a home business. For example, you have more time to spend with your family, you do not have to deal with aggravating commutes, and there is even the home office tax deduction. If anything, the overall costs should be lower -- making it easier to get traction for your business.

Yet, there are definitely considerable risks, which are often overlooked. But the good news is that smart insurance planning can provide sufficient protection. And the prices are affordable, costing as little as $500 per year.

Allstate Corp. (ALL), which has been the subject of rumors concerning the termination of agents, is scheduled to release fourth-quarter financial results after the market closes Wednesday, and then to discuss those results in a conference call tomorrow, Thursday, Feb. 11, at 9:00 AM (ET). An audio webcast of the call will be available at the company's website.

During the three months that ended in December, Allstate named a new marketing chief, welcomed a new board member and declared a quarterly dividend. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for earnings for that period to come to $1.01 per share. That compares with 99 cents per share in the previous quarter and 97 cents per share a year ago. Revenue for the fourth quarter is expected to be 23.0% higher than a year ago to $8.1 billion.

In this market and economy it pays (literally) to have a few moderate-risk stocks in your portfolio that also have an chance for a decent upside.

The Travelers Companies (TRV), is one, and that's why I'm reiterating my by buy rating for the company, first recommended on April 24, 2009, at a price of $39.50. If you bought TRV in April, you're up about 34%.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that as long as we're trapped in a commoditized stock market, use the futures to go bargain-hunting.

What if individual stocks want to go up, but the market wants to go down? Don't laugh. In 1982, when The Kansas City Board of Trade started trading Value Line futures (before there were S&P futures), we used to kick around in securities classes what would happen if eventually stocks became so commoditized that individual companies couldn't be removed from the gravitational pull.

For example, we know today looks like a terrible day, with Europe down horribly and our futures real soggy. But then we look and see that J. Crew (NYSE: JCG) (Cramer's Take), one of the best retailers, is not just saying that the fall season is good; it is saying it is blowout beyond imagination. The big Dow stock 3M (NYSE: MMM) (Cramer's Take) is not just saying that things are getting better; it is showing that business is very strong. The monster insurer and fellow Dow stock Travelers (NYSE: TRV) (Cramer's Take) is boosting the dividend and showing you how a responsible financial can behave.

Last week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) reported stellar quarterly results. Lots more third quarter reports from the big banks are due this week.

However, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate year-over-year earnings declines from Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BB&T Corp. (NYSE: BBT), M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB), Northern Trust Corp. (NASDAQ: NTRS), PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (NYSE: PNC), State Street Corp. (NYSE: STT), US Bancorp (NYSE: USB), and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC).

I'm reiterating my Buy rating for The Travelers Companies (NYSE: TRV), first recommended on April 24, 2009 at a price of $39.50. If you purchased TRV at that time, you're up a decent 20%.

Simply, look for The Travelers to continue to improve underwriting results and to capitalize on the flight-to-quality in property-casualty insurance market. Further, TRV's P/E of 9 gives those who didn't purchase shares in April an opportunity to do so now at an attractive price.

After weeks of speculation - Apple! Amazon! Nike! Toyota! -- all became clear today when General Motors Corporation's (NYSE: GM) exodus from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) made room for... Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO). While perhaps not as sexy a name as, say, Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), it does add one more tech name to the venerable 30-stock average.

Wall Street Journal Managing Editor Robert Thomson released a statement noting that CSCO made the cut "because its communications and computer-networking products are vital to an economy and culture still adapting to the Information Age -- just as automobiles were essential to America in the 20th Century." So there's the connection!

Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) is recently up 67 cents to $19.88 in pre-open trading. CSCO will replace General Motors (GM) in the Dow Jones Industrial Averages -- DJIA. CSCO June option implied volatility of 36 is below its 26-week average of 47, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Travelers (NYSE: TRV) is recently trading at $41.87 in pre-open trading, above its close of $40.66. TRV will replace Citigroup (NYSE: C) in the DJIA. TRV June and July option implied volatility of 37 is below its 26-week average of 54, according to Track Data, indicating decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Wall Street's optimism in last week's preview about the earnings of tech stocks wasn't misplaced, as there were many more positive surprises than negative ones among the stocks we looked at. This week will bring plenty more data for investors in and watchers of the sector to mull over. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), for example, are expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to post modest earnings gains from a year ago, to $1.11 per share (on $8.1 billion in sales), $0.72 per share (on $31.3 billion in sales), and $0.47 per share (on $14.8 billion in sales) respectively. All three of these companies ended the week closer to their 52-week lows than highs, and analysts on average consider them each a buy.

Here's a look at some of the week's biggest expected earnings gainers and decliners in the sector:

• Baidu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU): $1.25 per share (+44.0%) on revenues of $134.7 million (+103.2%)
• Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM): $0.44 per share (+38.6%) on revenues of $1.3 billion (+33.8%)
• QLogic Corp. (NASDAQ: QLGC): $0.31 per share (+29.0%) on revenues of $170.0 million (+21.2%)
• FLIR Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: FLIR): $0.32 per share (+28.1%) on revenues of $275.2 million (+44.0%)
• Juniper Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR): $0.30 per share (+26.7%) on revenues of $927.4 million (+26.2%)
• Waters Corp. (NYSE: WAT): $0.75 per share (+17.3%) on revenues of $391.6 million (+11.1%)
• Flextronics International Ltd. (NASDAQ: FLEX): $0.29 per share (+17.2%) on revenues of $8.7 billion (+57.3%)
• EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC): $0.19 per share (+10.5%) on revenues of $3.7 billion (+12.9%)

Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG) closed at $62.06 Thursday. HIG October option implied volatility of 52 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Travelers (NYSE: TRV), a leading property casualty insurer, closed at $44.61 Thursday. TRV October option implied volatility of 37 is above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, indicating larger price movement.

Genworth Financial (NYSE: GNW) closed at $15.02 Thursday. GNW October option implied volatility of 71 is above its 26-week average of 52 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

XL Capital (NYSE: XL), provider of global reinsurance coverage, closed at $18.63 Thursday. XL October option implied volatility of 78 is above its 26-week average of 73 according to Track Data, suggesting larger movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com