Treasuries posts
FeedPosted Sep 18th 2009 4:30PM by John Jagerson (RSS feed)
Filed under: Other issues, Market matters

High yield is a nice way of saying "junk" when talking about bonds. These bonds are issued by firms who must pay a higher interest rate when raising capital than those companies that issue bonds that qualify as investment grade. Those higher interest rates are attractive to investors and lately demand for high yield bonds has led to a very nice rally in junk bond funds like the
iShares High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (
HYG).
Today, HYG is finally pausing in its uptrend as investors take some profits off the table across the bond market. Investors are concerned about the fact that the Treasury plans to flood the $112 billion worth of new debt into the market next week. That will be a record auction amount and could put temporary downward pressure on bond prices.
Continue reading High yield bond funds take a break
Posted Sep 4th 2009 5:00PM by John Jagerson (RSS feed)
Filed under: Federal Reserve

The most recent data released from the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meetings show that the Fed remains relatively positive, albeit cautious, about an economic recovery in the U.S. This means that the Fed can start planning to wind down some of its debt buying programs including the its current program to purchase $300 billion in Treasury debt.
While the data was just released on Wednesday, the meetings actually took place on August 11th and 12th. But the results still merit scrutiny, especially for investors who may wonder what this could mean for their portfolios. Let's take a look.
Continue reading Portfolio Alert: Watch out for a Fed ease-up on Treasury buying
Posted Feb 12th 2009 12:58PM by Tom Taulli (RSS feed)
Filed under: China, Blackstone Group L.P (BX)
Since President Nixon opened the doors to China back in the 1970s, the relationship has certainly been interesting – and complicated. Of course, now China is a critical piece of the global economy and a huge funder of U.S. debt, which is even more important in light of our massive deficit spending.
So, will China continue buying up our Treasuries? Perhaps so. This is according to a piece in the FT. The director general of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, Luo Ping, said there is really no other place to put lots of cash (at least in a safe way). In fact, he wasn't too thrilled with the U.S.'s financial moves over the years. And, he even thinks the U.S. dollar will continue to sink (yes, not really a ringing endorsement from our financial sugar daddy).
Continue reading Chinese regulator hates the US ... but still likes our bonds
Posted Oct 22nd 2008 10:10AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major movement, Newsletters, Mutual funds, Stocks to Buy, Recession
"Like other US Treasuries, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPs) have virtually no credit risk," explains fund expert Mark Salzinger.
The editor of The No-Load Fund Investor adds, "Unlike other US Treasuries beyond short-term bills, however, TIPs also have no inflation risk." Here, he looks at an EYF based on TIPs.
"Twice a year, TIPs' principal valuis are adjusted upward by the amount of the increase in the Consumer Price Index Urban (CPI-U), thus protecting their holders against increases in inflation.
"The total return of the bond equals its yield plus the change in principal value based on inflation, changes in real interest rates (published interest rates minus inflation) and supply-demand in the market for TIPs.
"TIPs' yields are lower than those of regular Treasury sercurities of similar maturities. That's one of the disadvantages of TIPs.
"The other is that any increase in principal value due to the biannual inflation adjustment gets taxed every year as if it were received income.
Continue reading Fund expert offers tip on TIPs
Posted Aug 4th 2008 5:39PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad news, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC)
At first glance, word that the number of so-called primary government securities dealers decreased to 19 from 20 last month, may seem like a fairly esoteric concern that's removed from the typical investor and taxpayer.
But, in practice, it isn't that removed because fewer dealers means fewer firms bidding for U.S. bonds - - a circumstance likely to increase government (read: taxpayer) borrowing costs, Mark MacQueen, money manager of Sage Advisory Services
told Bloomberg News Monday.The number of authorized bond traders who make markets in U.S. Government debt decreased to 19 when the
Bank of America (NYSE:
BAC) acquired Countrywide Financial Corp.,
Bloomberg News reported. It will drop again, to 18, after
J. P. Morgan Chase (NYSE:
JPM) completes its takeover of Bear Stearns.
Economist David H. Wang agreed Monday that the bidder math is not running in the U.S. Government's favor at this juncture. "We know from basic economics that, historically, if the number of market makers declines, auctions will not be as efficient, and this will lead to higher financing costs for the U.S. Government," Wang said.
Another factor likely to drive up U.S. Government borrowing costs: the size of the U.S. Government's budget deficit, Wang said. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the Fiscal 2009 deficit will total $500 billion, up from $470 billion in Fiscal 2008, the current fiscal year, which ends September 30, 2008. (
pdf)
Continue reading Fewer U.S. Treasury dealers means likely higher U.S. Government borrowing costs
Posted Mar 10th 2008 12:36PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Federal Reserve, Recession
"Derivatives - the 'global Vesuvius of debts and bets' that we have been warning about since 2006 is beginning to erupt," says Martin Weiss.
The editor of The Safe Money Report explains, "The time is now to build cash and the best place to put it is in United States Treasury bills or equivalent." Here, he looks at the benefits of Treasuries and the various ways that investors can add them to their portfolios.
"We now have overwhelming evidence of a severe recession. And we have a solid confirmation in the stock market itself. But we also forecast that the Fed would fight back, and do so aggressively, fomenting an
inflationary recession.
"They're pumping in massive amounts of money, trying to calm markets and seeking to avert a recession. But it's too little, too late for the economy. And it's too much, too soon for the already-shaky dollar. *Result: Gold has surged along with other commodities.
"And consumer price inflation, long a side-show on the American scene, is now surging back. Our urgent appeal: If youhaven't done so already based on our earlier issues, the time is now to shift from complacency to protective action ... from bull-market plays to income opportunities ... from risk to safety.
Continue reading Safe Money seeks safety in Treasuries
Posted Jun 18th 2007 10:56AM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst reports, Economic data
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Scott Black of Delphi Management mentioned in this weekend's
Barron's that the spread between investment grade debt and Treasuries is just 83 basis points, the tightest in nine years.
Black went on to say that the private equity boom is not too different from the leverage buyout boom from 1980.
However, there are some differences between today and the 1980's. The debt level used in the corporate-raider-buyout boom of Perlman, Peltz, May et al was substantially higher than today. Ten percent was often the maximum equity put down. Today, equity contributions average 20% to 25% and in some cases have been in the 30% area.
The other difference is that as multiples have expanded, the equity contribution has also gone up. This is due to both more experienced PE fund managers, many of whom began their careers in the 1980s, and also operating managers of these companies are requiring a larger equity component. The guys left operating these businesses do not want to be stuck with unmanageable balance sheets.
But Black's comments are worth noting. While private-equity deal structures are more conservative, banks are opening the lending spigot. The excess in this market appears more on the lending side then the deal structure side. Both the private equity funds and operating managers have remained disciplined so far.
Posted Mar 2nd 2007 5:53PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Newspapers, Internet, Blogs, Columns, AT and T (T), Citigroup Inc. (C), Bank of America (BAC), Books, Wells Fargo (WFC), Bargain stocks
This past Tuesday I wrote an article on dividend-paying stocks offer investors more protection in tough times. It has only been three trading days since the Tuesday hit and looking back now, the stocks discussed with high, sustainable dividends are holding up just fine.
Whether it's AT&T, Inc. (NYSE:T), Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC), CitiGroup, Inc. (NYSE:C) or Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC), the stock movements have been negligible. These stocks have been attracting investors seeking safety of principal and a high yield. But remember, most excellent dividend paying companies have a history of raising those dividend payments, and with that fact comes a higher stock price as well.
If the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates in the spring and summer, and I believe they will, the yields on these stocks becomes even more valuable. As riskless treasuries are in the 4%+ neighborhood now, if the Fed lowers rates and those yields fall into the 3% neighborhood, the stocks of underlying high-dividend payers will go up.Current yields tend to go together especially if underlying quality is present. For example, for Bank of America to yield 3%, the stock would have to go up to the mid $60's. If you own the stock here at $50-51, you have locked in a 4.40% yield, and if we see declining interest rates, for the stock to remain competitive with US Treasuries, the share price would soar. Not to mention, BAC will probably raise their dividend in 2007, 2008, and beyond.
This is where high dividend paying stocks can be powerful investments...
Georges Yared is the author of recently released books Stop Losing Money Today and Baby Boomer Investing...Where do we go from here?
Posted Jun 11th 2006 11:01AM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Management, Insiders, Rants and raves, Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Apple Inc (AAPL), eBay (EBAY), General Electric (GE), Time Warner (TWX), Wal-Mart (WMT)
The most valuable thing on earth after life itself is TRUST.
Why is President Bush watching his approval rating collapse month after month -- Do you trust him? What has he done to build trust? Why are we so comfortable living with England having nuclear weapons and are panic-stricken by Iran's having them -- do you trust them? What have they done to build trust?
What was the cause of Adam & Eve's being banished from the garden of Eden? A breach of trust. Right from the start, up until this very moment it is trust that creates brotherhood between peoples and also builds strong brands. Trust that allows a temporary leap of faith until the facts are known and it is trust that positions the market place for "just-in-time" manufacturing and without which the process would come to a swift and grinding halt.
Johnson & Johnson did all the right things way back when they had the now-historic Tylenol tampering scare to contend with and they wisely focused their attention on maintaining trust at all costs. Enron did all the wrong things. Arthur Anderson drowned in a sea of mistrust flowing from their own questionable ethics and we witnessed a very valuable enterprise rapidly collapse. In my architecture practice I have lectured on this subject constantly to everyone who would listen; staff, clients, consultants, public officials etc. Anything that builds trust is a good thing, anything that reduces trust is a bad thing!
Continue reading More valuable than gold, oil, land, stocks, & Treasury notes