Treasury Bonds posts
FeedPosted Nov 15th 2010 5:00PM by Jason Raznick (RSS feed)
Filed under: Federal Reserve

In the wake of the Fed's quantitative easing announcement, the Treasury market has broken down, suggesting that the run up in bond prices in the expectation of Fed buying was overdone.
Now may be the time to go short U.S. Treasury bonds, which remain at exceptionally high levels on a historical basis. Even after the sell-off, the 10-Year is still only yielding 2.93%.
Continue reading The Treasury Market Is Breaking Down
Posted Oct 3rd 2010 11:40AM by Connie Madon (RSS feed)
Filed under: Market Matters, Economic Data, Federal Reserve
The world of international finance is a complex web. The U.S. is still the powerhouse when it comes to gross domestic product. Yet, while perched on top of the heap, the U.S. faces major problems with high-level debt and unemployment.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is faced with having to issue massive amounts of debt just to keep pace with the growing deficits. Now the Fed is planning another round of stimulus by buying more treasuries, dubbed QE2.
Continue reading Why Would Any Country Buy U.S. Treasuries?
Posted Jun 5th 2010 11:40AM by Connie Madon (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Market Matters, Economic Data, Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis
For the first time in history, U.S. government debt -- now $13 trillion -- will surpass GDP in 2012, based on forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. Bill Gross of PIMCO calls this a "debt super cycle."
The key problem with such a huge debt is that investors will demand a higher return, which translates into higher interest rates. The interest cost alone on $13 trillion will put an added burden on the government and the people.
Bill Gross further commented that "If real interest rates were ever to go up instead of down," our economic growth will not be enough to support borrowings.
Continue reading U.S. Debt to Surpass GDP
Posted Sep 23rd 2009 6:00PM by Mitch Tuchman (RSS feed)
Filed under: ETF Investing, Personal Finance
With ever growing uncertainty whether our economy will face inflation or deflation in the months to come given recent government spending, what is certain is that no one wants to see their fixed income lose purchasing power. Unlike most bonds that pay out a fixed dollar amount in interest, treasury inflation protected bonds (TIPs) pay out a fixed amount over the consumer-price index (CPI), making them a popular choice for investor anticipating the economy to experience inflation. If inflation is higher than projected, the government adds to your principal on a TIP and makes up the difference!
Not only does owning TIPs allow one to keep up with monthly bills that are increasing in step with inflation, they are an important asset class to consider when determining an asset allocation strategy. TIPs enable one to further diversify a portfolio. Bonds are ideal for those not able to stomach much risk and TIPs in particular protect one's fixed income from eroding.
Continue reading Inflation worries got you down? Buy TIP, a Treasury Inflation Protected ETF
Posted Sep 21st 2009 4:40PM by Connie Madon (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major Movement, International Markets, Good news, Market Matters, Money and Finance Today, Economic Data, Federal Reserve
Why is China loading up on US Treasuries? At first glance that seems strange because the dollar keeps falling. Doesn't a falling dollar mean that inflation is on the way? Not necessarily. The Labor Department reported that prices of imported goods fell 15% in August from a year ago, this after a 19.2% drop in July. These numbers are telling us that there is no inflation coming in the near future. The Fed has plenty of wiggle room. It can afford to keep interest rates at historic lows.
So then why is the dollar weak? We know what the answer is. The Fed has pledged $12 trillion dollars to bail out the bankers, housing and the mortgage market, just to name a few areas where the money is going. Then too, we have sky high deficits. The current account deficit will rise to 3.2% of GDP in 2010 and 3.5% in 2011.
Continue reading Why is China loading up on US Treasuries?
Posted Jun 1st 2009 2:40PM by Mark Fightmaster (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Economic Data

Everything is fine, right? I mean May was a great month, following a solid April - so we are out of the woods, right? Not so fast my friend, there are some hints that we could hit a second credit crisis. According to
this article, some early warning signs of another global financial crisis include surging government bond yields, a slumping dollar, and the end of the bear market rally in the U.S.
The most worrisome possible signal is the heavy selling of U.S. dollar-denominated assets, which could "trigger a full-blown currency crisis and usher in surging inflation." This assertion means that we should be a bit concerned that the Treasury note yields' surged to six-month highs near 3.75% this week. This move indicates that investors may be concerned about the U.S. government borrowing requirements this year.
Continue reading Do bond yields hint at another credit crisis?
Posted Mar 2nd 2009 1:20PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major Movement, Newsletters, Mutual Funds, ETF Investing, Recession
This post is part of a 12-article feature that can be read here: Today's best income ideas.
"The markets are littered with compelling buying opportunities that may be the best we see in a generation," says Keith Fitz-Gerald.
In The Money Map Report, he looks at a trio of income ETFs -- one focused on Treasury inflation protected securities, one invested in muni bonds, and one that buys high yield corporates.
"We are holding three positions in our portfolio which we believe can be bought with new money. First, we suggest iShares Lehman TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE: TIP). The 10 year TIPS' yield is 2.23% versus 2.40% for 10 year Treasuries.
Continue reading TIPs, munis & corporates: ETFs for income
Posted Dec 31st 2008 12:00PM by Bryan Perry (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters
This strategy went from being a modestly successful trade through October to a hero-sized trade in the past 45 days.
The Fed funds rate, the most widely followed interest rate the banks charge each other for overnight lending, topped out in August 2006, at 5.25%.
When the Fed started easing rates thereafter, no one at the economic think tanks forecasted anything close to what we are seeing today (namely a Fed funds rate of zero to 0.25% -- a decline of a full 5% in 17 months).
The decline in rates started out so orderly and coordinated that it seemed almost too good to be true, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all-time high, topping 14,000 for the first time in July 2007.
However, the quarter-point cuts gave way to a three-quarter-point cut, or 75 basis points, on Jan. 22, 2008, signaling that the Fed was seeing a material breakdown in the credit and housing markets. Following that seemingly radical rate cut, just eight days later on Jan. 30, the Fed again slashed the Fed funds rate by another half point, or 50 basis points, to 3%.
From there Bernanke & Co. held steady for a couple months to see if any good would come of their efforts.
When evidence of further erosion in the credit markets surfaced with the impending collapse of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), Indy Mac, Bear Streans and Lehman Brothers (OTC: LEHMQ), the Fed lopped another three-quarters of a point off the Fed funds rate, taking it down to 2.25% on March 18.
That was considered the absolute floor at the time, a level that would stick. But that wasn't the case.
Continue reading Best Trades of 2008: #2 Getting long and staying long the 30-year Treasury bond
Posted Dec 31st 2008 9:00AM by Bryan Perry (RSS feed)
Filed under: India, China
For most investors and traders, 2008 was a tough year. But while many people saw their portfolio take a merciless beating and watched their retirement vanish into thin air, there were a select few who made a killing.
In fact, if you had been on the right side of any of these bets, you could have banked enough dough to make up for your losses and then some.
Here are five trades everyone wishes they had made in 2008:
#1 Shorting 'Chindia' the day after New Year's: The Chindia experience peaked in Beijing with Michael Phelps, and the market knew it would a year and a day before the Closing Ceremonies.
#2 Getting long and staying long the 30-year Treasury bond: This strategy went from being a modestly successful trade through October to a hero-sized trade in the past 45 days.
#3 Shorting oil on the Fourth of July: The drop in oil prices has been nothing short of unbelievable. Those that had the fortitude to short crude in early July (and had the stones to stay with that trade) made a killing.
#4 Buying DryShips (DRYS) at the November low: Following its meteoric rise to $116, the stock careened all the way down to $3. But if you went long then, you saw the share price quadruple in less than a month.
#5 Shorting 'too big to fail' Fannie and Freddie: This shorting strategy defied all odds and pretty much defined the year for the stock market.
Posted Sep 3rd 2008 2:55PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Recession
"The latest annual rate of inflation measured from last July to this July was 5.6%, the largest annual gain since way back in January 1991," observes Alexander Green.
Here, the investment director for the industry-leading The Oxford Club suggests that investors consider the iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund (ASE: TIP), noting, "This is a great way to buy a diversified portfolio of inflation-adjusted Treasuries and track them quite easily."
"The latest consumer price index figures were a bit of a shock; the annual rate of inflation measured from last July to this July was 5.6%, the largest annual gain since way back in January 1991.
"Despite these horrendous inflation figures, gold, mining shares and other inflation-sensitive indicators did nothing – or even fell. What gives?
"Remember that the market is always looking forward, not back. Investors are always more concerned with what lies ahead than what happened in the recent past. Next month or next year may be a different story entirely.
"That's why every investor should have a hedge in his portfolio, like inflation-adjusted Treasuries. These bonds are unique in the investment world. They are the only investment guaranteed to beat inflation. And they are great portfolio diversifiers. They don't march in step with either stocks or bonds.
Continue reading Inflation-adjusted gains: A good "TIP"