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Democrats win, and owners of defense stocks begin to tremble

Joseph Lazzaro — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 13:30:00 EST

Filed under: Boeing Co (BA), Lockheed Martin (LMT), General Dynamics Corp (GD), Northrop Grumman (NOC)

That rumbling you heard this morning was the mad, frantic shuffling of papers and budget proposals inside the offices of defense contractors around the Washington Beltway, as they prepare to justify their appropriations amid a political shift in the nation's capital.

The Democrats, led by U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, are taking over the town. And while the security needs of the post-September 11 era and two wars mean major U.S. defense spending cuts are unlikely, changes in priorities and the demands of the financial crisis could create "a dramatically different defense spending landscape" for defense contractors like Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC)," says economist Peter Dawson.

More support for troops on ground?

"What we may see from President-elect Obama is a shift toward increased U.S. Army troop strength and the basic armor and weapon systems that support them, to take stress off our forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and to improve results in the wars, and less emphasis on costly, high-tech weapon systems," Dawson said. "If that's the case, an Obama Administration could seek to delay production of the Navy's DDG-1000 Zumwalt class destroyer, additional purchases of the new F-22 fighter jets, and other programs."

The DDG-1000 destroyer is jointly built by Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics (NYSE: GD). The F-22 is built by Lockheed Martin. Northrop's shares rose 44 cents to $48.50, Lockheed's gained 62 cents to $86.53, and General Dynamics fell $1.30 to $62.47 in mid-day Wednesday trading.

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Democrats win, and owners of defense stocks begin to tremble originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 Nov 2008 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Time may be on Boeing's side after Pentagon delays tanker contest

Joseph Lazzaro — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 18:00:00 EST

Filed under: Competitive Strategy, Boeing Co (BA), Northrop Grumman (NOC)

In business, as in international relations, there are battles you fight and battles you don't fight.

It looks like Boeing's decision earlier this year to protest the U.S. Department of Defense's award of an aerial refueling tanker contract constituted a savvy corporate tactic. Government auditors first ordered a rerun of the competition, and then today U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates delayed the $35 billion award contest, saying there isn't enough time to complete the contest fairly, by the end of the Bush Administration, the Pentagon announced.

"Over the past seven years the process has become enormously complex and emotional -- in no small part because of mistakes and missteps along the way by the Department of Defense," Secretary Gates said in a statement. "It is my judgment that in the time remaining to us, we can no longer complete a competition that would be viewed as fair and objective in this highly charged environment."

Gates added that the 'cooling off' period will allow the next administration to objectively review the military requirements and craft a new acquisition strategy for the refueling tanker.

Continue reading Time may be on Boeing's side after Pentagon delays tanker contest

Time may be on Boeing's side after Pentagon delays tanker contest originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 10 Sep 2008 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Boeing says tanker program at risk if it loses appeal of USAF decision

Joseph Lazzaro — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 14:30:00 EST

Filed under: Boeing Co (BA), Politics, Northrop Grumman (NOC)

Boeing may abandon plans to sell its aerial refueling tanker internationally if it loses its protest of a U.S. Air Force decision to buy $40 billion worth of tankers from a competitor, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday [subscription].

Boeing's Mark McGraw, the executive in charge of the program, told The Journal that Boeing had counted on the Pentagon to provide enough volume to make an international tanker business viable.

In February, Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) and partner European Aeronautic, Defence & Space (EADS), parent of Airbus, beat out Boeing, the Air Force's only supplier of the aircraft for half a century; the Air Force recently announced that it continues to support that decision. Boeing protested the award to the Government Accountability Office, which must make its recommendation to the Pentagon by Thursday.

Boeing's (NYSE: BA) shares were virtually unchanged on the news in Wednesday mid-day trading, gaining eight cents to $74.43. Northrop Grumman rose $1.03 to $72.09 and EADS fell 46 euro cents to 13.57 euros on the Paris Exchange.

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Boeing, Textron secure $10.4 billion V-22 Osprey U.S. DOD contract

Joseph Lazzaro — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 10:32:00 EST

Filed under: Boeing Co (BA)

Bell Boeing has received a $10.4 billion U.S. Department of Defense contract for the V-22 Osprey that guarantees production of at least 167 more of the aircraft through 2012, Bell Boeing announced Monday.

Bell Boeing is a strategic alliance between Bell Helicopter, a unit of Textron (NYSE: TXT) company, and Boeing (NYSE: BA).

The five-year contract includes 26 CV-22 aircraft for the U.S. Air Force Special Operations Command and 141 MV-22 aircraft for the U.S. Marine Corps. The contract includes an option for additional aircraft.

Both Boeing and Textron moved higher on the news. Boeing shares gained 83 cents to $74.30 and Textron rose 47 cents to $55.07 in early Monday trading.

The V-22 is a tiltrotor aircraft with proprotors and engines installed in nacelles at the tips of both wings.

Analysis: The contract is good news on a number of fronts, the most obvious of which is additional work for Boeing and Textron. In the last six months Boeing shares have declined roughly $30 to about $74 on rollout delays for its next-generation 787 Dreamliner commercial aircraft, and the U.S. economic slowdown. The news is also a mild shot in the arm for the U.S. economy, which given the large number of industrial jobs lost to cheaper overseas manufacturing zones, can use all of the domestic industrial jobs it can get.

Boeing, Textron secure $10.4 billion V-22 Osprey U.S. DOD contract originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 31 Mar 2008 10:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Look for Alliant Techsystems to lift-off like its engines

Joseph Lazzaro — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 15:17:00 EST

Filed under: Stocks to Buy

With the U.S. economic landscape remaining uncertain, it's prudent to add a defensive stock or two to your portfolio, and with the aforementioned in mind Alliant Techsystems is worth an evaluation.

Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK) is an ammunition supplier and rocket engine / motor manufacturer with substantial United States Government contracts.

Analysts like Alliant's strong fundamentals, solid U.S. Department of Defense orders for ammunition, equally impressive launch systems work from NASA, and sporting ammunition business.

Analysts also believe ATK is well-positioned to capture a portion of the U.S. DOD's work for next-generation weapon systems.

Meanwhile, margins should improve slightly in F2008 to 11%, and costs, while not low, are reasonable. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for ATK are $6.39/$7.38.

The risks? An early withdrawal of U.S troops from Iraq would lower ATK's revenue for F2009-F2010. Analysts are also keeping an eye on the company's productivity per man hour.

The First Call mean rating for ATK is: Buy. [12 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $128. [high: $136, low: $120.]

Stock Analysis: Alliant Techsystems is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from ATK's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $68.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

Look for Alliant Techsystems to lift-off like its engines originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 28 Mar 2008 15:17:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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With General Dynamics, the goal is run silent, run deep

Joseph Lazzaro — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 16:15:00 EST

Filed under: Stocks to Buy, General Dynamics Corp (GD)

It' s not everyday that investors are presented with a growth opportunity, supplemented by more-than-modest downside protection, but that's the case with General Dynamics.

General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) is a diversified manufacturer of corporate jets and heavy vehicles, and is the second largest military shipbuilder -- specializing in nuclear-class submarines.

Along with consistent earnings and dividend growth, analysts like GD's platform diversity, with civilian work (Gulfstream corporate jets) complementing defense contract work (Trident submarines, armored vehicles). Analysts expect GD's revenue to increase about 10-13% in 2007, and 9-11% in 2008.

Moreover, GD's shares offer a measure of safety in that the submarine portion of the U.S. defense system is the force projection most likely to continue to be funded by Congress. Along with stealth fighters/bombers, submarines are the least-detectable form of military operations.

Long term, analysts generally see growth in GD's sales of business jets, land vehicles and munitions. Cost containment has been adequate. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for GD are $5.07/$5.71.

The qualifiers? A reduction in U.S. Department of Defense appropriations would hurt GD's results, as would a failure to deliver existing work on time.

The First Call mean rating for GD is: Buy. [19 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $99.00. [high: $106, low: $94.]

Stock Analysis: General Dynamics is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from GD's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $62.

With General Dynamics, the goal is run silent, run deep originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 18 Dec 2007 16:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Northrop Grumman is oceans ahead of the competition

Joseph Lazzaro — Sat, 15 Dec 2007 13:10:00 EST

Filed under: Stocks to Buy, Northrop Grumman (NOC)

Readers of this space know that the preference is for long-term plays with companies with demonstrated business models (10 years), in an established market, with an average total annual return on equity of 20% during that span. It also helps if the company has a secular tailwind and/or is one of only a few players in a sector.

On the last point, Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC) ranks very high, and it fares reasonably well in the other categories, too.

Northrop is the U.S.'s No. 3 defense contractor and the No. 1 shipbuilder in the world. Analysts like NOC's operational diversity, cash flow, and solid balance, but the company's standout dimensions, from an investment standpoint, are its electronics systems business (21% of revenue) and its ship building business (17% of revenue).

The electronics business is likely to remain a key player in radar/navigation/communications systems, moving forward, and the ships business is also in a preferred position: it's one of only two nuclear-power submarine makers in the U.S. and the only builder of U.S. aircraft carriers. Of course, no one can predict with any certainty the role aircraft carriers will play in defense operations -- the aircraft carrier's demise has been predicted for (seemingly) the past three decades -- but the sense here is that these ships will retain a role in the decades ahead. The company also builds the B-2 stealth bomber and has a 25% stake in the F-35 next-generation, joint-strike fighter.

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Despite U.S. economic slowdown, L-3 keeps rolling along

Joseph Lazzaro — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 18:08:00 EST

Filed under: Other Issues, Stocks to Buy

For L-3 Communications, the defense never rests. L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: LLL) makes secure and specialized systems for satellite, avionics, and marine communications, with a healthy percentage of its business coming from the U.S. Government.

Analysts like LLL's diversified revenue stream: specialized products (34%), intelligence/communications (22%), government services (25%), and aircraft modernization and maintenance (19%).

Analysts expect 8%-9% organic revenue growth in 2007 and 7%-8% in 2008, including solid growth in government service and specialized products. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for LLL are $5.95 to $6.51.

The risks? Analysts are keeping their eye on LLL's profit margins, high financial leverage, and ability to increase its low dividend. A substantial decline in U.S. government/defense spending would also hurt L-3's results.

The First Call mean rating for LLL is: Hold [15 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $116.20 [high: $129, low: $108].

Stock Analysis: L-3 Communications is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from LLL's shares. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $78.

Despite U.S. economic slowdown, L-3 keeps rolling along originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 06 Dec 2007 18:08:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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