Modest ADP job report suggests weak employment conditions continued in July

Joseph Lazzaro — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 14:17:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Employees, Economic Data, Recession

It's a job report that's not likely to encourage stock market bulls.

That's how one economist and market watcher characterized Wednesday's release of the July ADP National Employment report, which showed an increase of just 9,000 jobs. (Revised ADP payroll data for June indicated a loss of 77,000 jobs.)

Further, although the ADP report is a sample of private sector companies and not a comprehensive survey, economists scrutinize it to detect clues about the labor market. And right now, those clues suggest continued weak employment conditions amid the slowest economy in five years, says economist Glen Langan.

"Although we saw a slight lessening of job layoffs in the hard-hit construction sector, we're still seeing job losses in that category," Langan said. "The rest of the report can be characterized as tepid. Tepid may sound like an improvement or a positive, but it's not, because the U.S. economy has to create about 100,000-125,000 jobs each month just to keep pace with population growth, with new adults entering the workforce. We're no where near that pace in 2008, which is a big negative for the [U.S.] economy."

In fact, Langan said the U.S. economy has shed an average of 94,000 jobs per month for the first six months of 2008. Further, July's ADP report does not bode well for the July non-farm payroll data report, scheduled to be released by the U.S. Department of Labor Friday, August 1 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expected that report to show a loss of 72,000 jobs in July.

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Modest ADP job report suggests weak employment conditions continued in July originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 Jul 2008 14:17:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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U.S. initial jobless claims drop 21,000 -- below estimate

Joseph Lazzaro — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 09:50:00 EST

Filed under: Employees, Economic Data

Initial jobless claims fell by 21,000 to 336,000 for the week ended Dec. 29, below the 349,000 consensus estimate, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. Initial claims totaled 326,000 for the same period a year ago.

Meanwhile, the previous week's jobless claims were revised upward to 357,000, the highest weekly level since October 2005, from the 349,000 statistic announced last week.

Also, the four-week moving average dropped to 343,750 from 344,500. Economists view the four-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

The number of continuing claims increased by 46,000 to 2.76 million for the week ended Dec. 22, the latest period for which figures were available.

Economic Analysis: This is a mixed bag of news; the current weekly jobless statistic dropped, but last week's statistic was revised higher. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average -- the average economists and analysts concentrate on -- remains at elevated levels and is a 'data point of concern' for the U.S. economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve will keep an eye on that four-week average: if it drifts above 350,000 and remains there, that would suggest a substantial softening of labor market conditions, and most likely, a slowing U.S. economy.

U.S. initial jobless claims drop 21,000 -- below estimate originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 03 Jan 2008 09:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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