U.S. Economy posts
FeedPosted Nov 2nd 2009 5:30PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Politics, Recession, Financial Crisis
New York Times (NYSE:
NYT) columnist
Paul Krugman argues quite persuasively that the major problem with the fiscal stimulus package was that it was too small, given the financial crisis and the large economic crater the accompanying, pronounced recession created.
Further, the fiscal stimulus' many benefits -- including substantial job retention in essential public services such as education -- are harder to see and not likely to translate into too much political gain for President Obama and Congressional Democrats, he said. That's consistent with a political science axiom -- often repeated by U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Massachusetts -- that
"Congress gets little credit or benefit for averting something." Indeed, retained jobs are hard to see, and the fact that a local public school system is is still operating with as many teachers is an accomplishment, but one that most American voters will take for granted, and not give Democrats credit for.
Continue reading Fiscal stimulus package's primary flaw: It was too small
Posted Mar 18th 2009 4:40PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Ford Motor (F), Citigroup Inc. (C), Bank of America (BAC), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Amer Intl Group (AIG), Politics, Recession, Financial Crisis
Investor Jim Rogers, noted for his expertise in commodities, is someone Wall Street professionals, business executives, and economists alike pay close attention to, as he's frequently been ahead-of-the-curve regarding market and investment trends.
Still, that's not to say that Rogers sometimes can't overdo it a bit and/or does not get it wrong.
A recent chat Rogers had
with Bloomberg News is an example of the latter, as the talk yielded more rhetoric, half-truths, and flat out absurd statements and not a whole not of illumination.
Continue reading Inaction and a financial crisis don't mix
Posted Mar 11th 2009 12:15PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Politics, Recession
In his column last week,
New York Times (NYSE:
NYT) columnist and Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman laid waste to those who argue that he's not critically assessing Obama administration programs. He offered a cogent critique of the U.S. Treasury's tardiness regarding
the banking system fix. Either temporarily nationalize those banks that are clogging the system, buy the toxic assets at unsubsidized prices, or announce some other market-valued removal plan to unclog the system, but let's put this train in motion, Krugman said, in so many words, to get to the root of the matter: We need to get credit flowing freely to facilitate commerce.
Continue reading If the U.S. economy strengthens, Fiscal Stimulus II may be shelved
Posted Mar 9th 2009 1:10PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Politics, Recession
Readers of this space know that the emphasis is placed on the economic, on commerce, and business trends, with a general avoidance of goings-on inside the beltway.
However, the financial crisis (which spawned federal bank bail-out legislation) and the nation's pronounced recession (which requires fiscal stimulus to end), has meant that things occurring in Washington once again have great relevance for investors.
And one current D.C. development must be evaluated: the House Republican leadership's decision to seek a federal spending freeze for the fiscal 2010 federal budget,
The AP reported.Continue reading House Republicans take page out of Hoover's 1930s play book with spending freeze plan
Posted Mar 2nd 2009 2:35PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Politics, Financial Crisis
Most investors know about the United States' anti-state political culture: in America it's private sector solution first, public sector solution second.
And, most also know that what state that does exist is anti-central government: it dates back to our federalist origination. We're even reluctant to call something 'central' for this reason: we have a central bank, but it's called the
Federal Reserve, not the Central Reserve. And it's the
Internal Revenue Service, not the Central Revenue Service.
Continue reading Socialism by any other name is probably a U.S. government program
Posted Feb 26th 2009 2:55PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Politics, Recession, Financial Crisis
In the landmark, blockbuster film
"Jaws" (1975), reluctant sailor, Police Chief Martin Brody (Roy Scheider), while chumming bait, gets his first look at the great white shark that's been terrorizing Amity's shoreline community. Captain Quint (Robert Shaw) and Marine Biologist Matt Hooper (Richard Dreyfuss) are immediately struck by the shark's size.
But Chief Brody is struck by another reality. "You're gonna need a bigger boat," Brody said.
In today's environment, with the U.S. economy in a pronounced recession and credit markets still constrained, the Keyensians - - which include most Congressional Democrats - - are playing the role of Chief Brody. They know what's needed to go after that shark (the recession).
'You're gonna need a bigger stimulus.' (In this case the 'bigger stimulus' means
a second stimulus package.)
Continue reading Will the U.S. economy need a second fiscal stimulus package?
Posted Feb 25th 2009 3:20PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Industry, Recession, Financial Crisis
Each economic era has incidents that characterize the age, and the one just passed, the U.S.'s
decade of descent, is no different.
Investors would no doubt cite the financial crisis, bad subprime loans, perverse incentives for bank executives, large leverage, speculative housing investments,
Bernard Madoff's alleged investment fraud, Enron, and WorldCom, among others, as topping the decade's major errors and scandals, and there would be no argument here.
On to the above list, yours truly will add two data points, two observations -- certainly not as well known -- but perhaps just as indicative.
Continue reading Out with tax shelters, in with investment in productive capacity
Posted Feb 23rd 2009 3:00PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Forecasts, Politics, Recession, Financial Crisis
You might say that a key investor, one of the exemplars, is no longer bullish on the pure bulls. Or on the unregulated bulls. Or on the totally free market bulls.
Billionaire investor George Soros
told Bloomberg News that the current global financial crisis originated during the deregulation of the 1980s, and signals the end of the free market model that has dominated capitalist countries, and indeed much of the developed world, since the the end of the Cold War with the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Continue reading Soros says world is witnessing end of pure, unregulated capitalism model
Posted Feb 12th 2009 2:20PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Politics, Recession, Financial Crisis
The U.S.'s first fiscal stimulus package 'of size' since the recession's start has passed - - albeit in a modified form that decreased spending by about $140 billion over the original outline.
Further, the young
President Barack Obama, like the young President John F. Kennedy, has learned that presidential honeymoons can be short inside the beltway, particularly if you have to trade policy to obtain votes both inside your party and among the loyal opposition.
Meanwhile, investors and the financial community more broader await the specifics pertaining to Obama administration's revised plan to
stabilize the banking system, with
the declining Dow discounting that even a successful plan will require months of systemic adjustment, and, of course, more public funds.
Continue reading Where does the U.S. economy go from here?
Posted Feb 12th 2009 11:50AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Forecasts, India, China, Brazil, Russia, Middle East, Mexico, Japan, Recession, Financial Crisis
The manager of the world's largest bond fund, PIMCO, has laid-out in unambiguous terms the problem facing the global economy in the quarters ahead: The U.S. and global recession will worsen -- with a "second wave" of turmoil -- unless governments increase fiscal stimulus and spending plans.
"The economic setback is still in its early stages," Koyo Ozeki, head of Asia-Pacific credit research at Pimco's Tokyo office, wrote in a report
published on PIMCO's web site. "Any further decline in housing prices could accelerate the downturn, intensifying the pernicious feedback loop and possibly leading to a second wave in the financial crisis in the next six to 12 months."
Continue reading PIMCO says recession will deepen without more fiscal stimulus by nations
Posted Feb 11th 2009 10:50AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Forecasts, Economic data, Recession
Many economists agree the U.S.'s pronounced recession, and the global recession, to some degree, were triggered by a series of imbalances. One of those imbalances is correcting now.
The U.S. trade deficit declined again in December 2008, by 4%, to $39.9 billion -- the lowest level since February 2003 -- on a substantial decline in imports, the U.S. Commerce Department
announced Wednesday. Further, for all of 2008, the trade deficit narrowed to $677.1 billion from $700.2 billion in 2007. In 2008, exports increased 12% to $1.84 trillion, while imports climbed 7.4% to $2.52 trillion.
Continue reading U.S. trade deficit falls to six-year low in December on declining imports
Posted Feb 9th 2009 5:20PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Forecasts, Recession, Financial Crisis
Financial Times columnist
Martin Wolf reminds investors that, contrary to some views expressed in the United States, depressions are neither good for us, nor unavoidable.
Further, despite the recent year's many reverberations, the United States remains, Wolf argues (and the
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency agrees), the world's preeminent economy in the global economic system it has created and promoted. Moreover, U.S. policy errors had much to do with the current crisis, even if aided by policy errors abroad. By extension, the healing and recovery starts in the U.S. -- with America as the leader of determined, globally-coordinated action.
Continue reading Martin Wolf: If the U.S. dares to succeed, it will
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Congressional Republican rhetoric aside, President Obama does not come close to being a socialist, so says one of the highest ranking socialists in the U.S.
The number "5 million" doesn't seem like much in a world of billions and trillions. 
When you work in public policy or economics, you come across policies and programs in various countries in Europe and elsewhere that are innovative and/or that have otherwise have stood the test of time. 
Will Rich Ross really have a positive impact on Disney's movie operations?
Consumers sick of recession, may spend extra on holidays
Corrections, seasonality and Santa Claus
