Oil fell $2.24 to $107.11 per barrel Thursday at mid-day despite the fact the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced that weekly crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 1.9 million barrels.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected crude oil inventories to increase by 450,000 barrels last week.

Gasoline supplies fell by 400,000 barrels to 194.4 million barrels. Meanwhile, refinery capacity rose to 88.7%, compared to 87.3% a week earlier, and 85.7% two weeks ago.

'It's all about slowing global growth'

Energy Trader Jim Dietz said the fact that oil fell despite the unexpected decline in weekly oil inventories underscores "a really troubling oil demand picture."

"Right now, it's all about slowing global growth. The oil market is definitely in sell mode now. The market senses global oil consumption growth will slow in Asia and when you add that to lower oil consumption in the U.S., we could see building inventories, which means oil is headed lower," Dietz said. "We still have to watch [Hurricane] Ike in the Atlantic because it may track toward the Gulf of Mexico but right now lower demand dominates [the market]."

Dietz added that he was currently short unleaded gasoline and oil, with monthly contracts.

Just a short quarter ago -- three months -- the lingua franca in economics and financial circles was "decoupling" -- the argument that the global economy could grow, despite an economic slowdown in the United States.

Then the U.S. slowdown persisted, lower growth rates and projections in Europe Asia followed, and the commodity price correction ensued, led by the most vital of all commodities, crude oil.

Oil, which for the better part of four years knew only one direction -- up -- pulled back about $30, or more than 20%. (Oil closed Friday down $6.49 to $114.59 per barrel). And unlike previous mild dips, emerging market demand -- the "rest of the world" in the oil market -- was not enough to protect the oil bulls. U.S. oil demand did matter -- it had declined on a year-over-year basis for more than three months -- and is projected to drop 3.1% in 2008, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data.

What's more, the EIA expects U.S. oil consumption to drop another 2.3% in 2009, to 20.08 million barrels per day.

In the oil market, as in the U.S stock market, there are fundamental analysts and technical analysts.

Fans of fundamentals follow things like inventory levels, global oil demand, and refinery capacity. Fans of technicals follow things like the 50-day and 200-day moving average and chart formations (double tops, double bottoms, etc.).

Moreover, rarely do these two analytical schools merge in one trader: you're usually either a fan of fundamentals or technicals.

A 'hybrid' trader

Energy trader Jim Dietz breaks the mold. He's a hybrid trader, of sorts. He primarily follows fundamentals, but gives technical analysis its proper respect, and currently on the chart are two, technical oil price levels that are worth paying attention to, as they are likely to provide clues regarding oil's direction, he said. Dietz added that he is presently flat, or had no open energy trading positions.

Oil, Dietz said, "has closed below support in the $115-116 range for two days in a row." Tuesday would be the third, if it closes below $115, and if it does, that would be bearish for oil, he said. Oil was down 29 cents to $112.58 in mid-day Tuesday trading.

Just call it another good start to the day for the oil bears.

The oil-bears -- those who believe oil prices will trend lower -- have been an isolated, much-maligned lot for a considerable portion of the decade, but lately price screens have been moving in their favor.

Oil fell for a third day on signs the U.S. economic slowdown will continue into 2009, resulting in a further reduction in oil use in the world's largest economy, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

Oil fell $1.16 to $113.29 per barrel Tuesday. Oil's move lower was also aided by word that Russia had halted its military offensive against Georgia, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

U.S. demand: a factor in oil's price

While not underestimating the geopolitical risks -- and energy risks -- implied by a renewal of Russian expansionism in the twenty-first century, economist Peter Dawson said the important data point for investors / traders to watch is oil consumption in the United States.

"I'm in the camp that argues oil's bull run has been demand-based. Up through 2007, demand in the U.S. rose but this year we've seen a decrease in demand, particularly in gasoline consumption, as the price went over $4 per gallon," Dawson said. "Some tried to argue that oil was 'decoupled' from gasoline demand and from U.S. demand in general, but that thesis is being discredited almost on a weekly basis."

The oil bears' case has strengthened.

Oil failed to rally Wednesday despite a government report indicating a draw in U.S. gasoline stocks, on concerns a slowing global economy will reduce global oil demand growth.

Oil closed down 59 cents to $118.58 per barrel. Further, oil also at one point in Wednesday's session fell to $117.25 per barrel, or to a level more than 20% below the July 11 record of $147.27. Technical analysis enthusiasts view a more than 20% price decline as a bearish signal -- a sign that the price of a stock / commodity / market is likely to trend lower.

In addition, oil bears could point to new oil community analysis to support their argument that oil prices are headed lower. Dennis Gartman, publisher of the Gartman Letter, an investor newsletter, told CNBC Wednesday he has closed his oil-long positions and is out of the oil trade entirely. Gartman believes oil could fall below $80 per barrel.

Is the oil 'bubble' bursting?

A drop substantially below $100 would suggest oil's move to near $150 was a bubble. Energy Trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Wednesday he doesn't get caught up in those who try to structure the debate: he just watches oil demand statistics.

U.S. gasoline consumption has declined for more than two months on a year-over-year basis, U.S. Energy Information Administration data indicates,

From a consumer standpoint, that's not only a good thing, it may be the only thing keeping already sky-high, $4 per gallon gasoline prices from moving even higher, says energy trader Jim Dietz.

"Lower demand is preventing gasoline sellers from raising prices even more. That's bad news for them, but it is helping consumers a little by keeping prices lower than what they would be, given the jump in oil prices," Dietz said.

Oil, which traded at $142.80 per barrel, up $1.83 on Wednesday at mid-day, is up about 100% in the past year. Meanwhile, the average price for a gallon of unleaded gasoline in the U.S. is about $4.09 per gallon, up about 45% during the same period, according to the EIA.

"Historically, a gallon of gasoline cost two times to three times as much as a gallon of crude oil. Now that price ratio is about 1.3-to-1," Dietz said. "If the old ratio applied, gasoline would easily be 40-60 cents higher, probably more." Dietz added that he is presently flat, or has no energy trading positions open ahead of the 4th of July weekend.

Oil fell $3.92 to $133.08 per barrel Wednesday at mid-day after the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced that weekly crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 803,000 barrels.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected crude oil inventories to decrease by 1.1 million barrels last week. It was the first rise in weekly oil inventories in six weeks. Also, gasoline supplies fell by 153,000 barrels.

A rarity: A bearish oil report

Traders took a bearish view of the weekly oil report, and sold the major energy commodities. In mid-day Wednesday trading unleaded gasoline fell about 3 cent to $3.43 per gallon. Heating oil fell about 3 cents to $3.78 per gallon. Natural gas declined 19 cents to $12.82 per million BTUs.

Crude oil surged past $135 Wednesday after a weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration report indicated weekly oil inventories plunged 4.6 million barrels.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected weekly oil inventories to decline by 1.5 million barrels. It was the fourth straight weekly decline for oil inventories.

The oil market, at least initially, interpreted this week's report as another bullish data point for oil, and looked past weekly increases in both gasoline and distillate supplies, which rose 1 million and 2.3 million barrels, respectively. Oil futures, up about $3.50 before the report rallied further -- rising $4.63 to $135.96 on the news in Wednesday morning trading.

Oil fell to $122 in early trading Wednesday, as traders locked in profits earned during oil's record up in the first half of the year.

Oil fell $2.21 to $122.10 per barrel -- its lowest level in about two months -- despite the fact the U.S. Energy Information Administration Wednesday reported a 4.8 million decline in weekly crude oil inventories.

Jim Dietz, independent energy trader, told BloggingStocks Wednesday that the bottom line is compelling traders and institutional investors to unwind intermediate oil-long positions.

"In some cases you've got players [traders, institutions] with four-month and six-month positions where they're up 30% or 35%. It's kind of hard to sit on that profit when it looks like oil demand growth is going to slow," Dietz said. "A good strategy would be to sell half or most of your position and that's helping to push the market lower now." Dietz added that he was presently short oil with a monthly contract.

Crude oil surged past $132 Thursday after a weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration report indicated oil inventories plunged 8.8 million barrels, primarily due to an idiosyncratic event.

The EIA cautioned that the large drop in oil inventories was due to temporary delays in crude oil tanker off-loadings on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Nevertheless, the oil market, at least initially, interpreted it as yet another bullish data point for oil, and oil futures quickly rose $1.87 to $132.90 per barrel in Thursday morning trading.

The other major energy commodities also surged after the weekly inventory report. Heating oil jumped 4 cents to $3.86 per gallon, unleaded gasoline added 7 cents to $3.51 per gallon, and natural gas increased 5 cents to $12.04 per million BTUs.

Billionaire investor George Soros said speculators are playing a major role in oil's record price rise. He also argued that the sky-high $130 per barrel price looks like a bubble, The Daily Telegraph reported Tuesday.

Soros said "speculation . . . is increasingly affecting the price" and that oil now has "this parabolic shape which is characteristic of bubbles." However, he qualified his remarks by stating that the bubble would not burst "until both the U.S. and Britain were in recession, after which prices could fall dramatically."

Oil fell about $2 to $130.12 per barrel in mid-day Tuesday trading after data showed Americans are cutting back their gasoline consumption amid record-high gasoline prices approaching $4 per gallon in several regions of the country, Bloomberg News reported. U.S. gasoline consumption has fallen for about fourth straight months, on a year-over-year basis, according to U.S. Department of Energy data. Oil is up 100% in the past 12 months, and about 480% since 2002.

Oil is treading water at a near-record $125 per barrel after a U.S. Energy Information Administration report indicated that weekly crude oil inventories rose a considerably smaller-than-expected 200,000 barrels. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected crude oil inventories to increase by 2.25 million barrels last week.

Gasoline supplies fell 1.7 million barrels.

The modest increase in oil inventories had little affect on oil prices, for the moment. Oil was down 87 cents to $124.93 per barrel in Wednesday morning trading. The other major energy commodities were also virtually unchanged. Unleaded gasoline fell 1 cent to $3.18 per gallon. Heating fell about 2 cents to $3.66 per gallon. Natural gas gained 10 cents to $11.52 per million BTUs.

Meanwhile, refineries operated at 86.6% of capacity for the week ended May 9, 2008, the EIA report indicated, up from 85.0% in the week ended May 2, 2008.

A bright spot: Refinery utilization

Independent energy trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Wednesday the increase in refinery utilization was the report's lone bright spot.

Oil is treading water -- for now -- at a near-record $122 per barrel Wednesday, after a U.S. Energy Information Administration report indicated that weekly crude oil inventories rose a larger than expected 5.7 million barrels.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected crude oil inventories to increase by 1.63 million barrels last week. Also, gasoline supplies rose by 800,000 barrels.

Oil idles near $122

The larger than expected increase in oil inventories put a brake on oil prices, for the moment. Oil rose just 30 cents to $122.14 per barrel in Wednesday morning trading. The other major energy commodities were also virtually unchanged. Unleaded gasoline gained 1 cent to $3.11 per gallon. Heating oil rose about 2 cents to $3.37 per gallon. Natural gas gain 2 cents to $11.15 per million BTUs.

Crude oil fell below $114 Wednesday after a U.S. Energy Information Administration report (pdf) indicated weekly oil inventories rose more than double forecast.

U.S. oil inventories increased 3.8 million barrels for the week ending April, 25, 2008. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected a 1.9 million barrel increase.

Oil fell $1.78 to $113.85 per barrel Wednesday at mid-day, after trading above $116 earlier in the session. The other major energy commodities also fell at mid-day. Heating oil declined about 3 cents to $3.21 per gallon, unleaded gasoline fell 2 cents to $2.92 per gallon, and natural gas declined dropped about 9 cents to $10.76 per million BTUs.

Oil jumped above $114 and wholesale unleaded gasoline soared to $2.91, after a U.S. Energy Information Administration report indicated that weekly crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 2.36 million barrels.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected crude oil inventories to increase by 1.18 million barrels in the past week. Oil inventories declined 2.36 million barrels to 313.7 million last week, the EIA announced.

Oil pops above $114

The unexpected inventory decline sent oil up $1.16 cents to $114.95 per barrel in Wednesday morning trading. The inventory draw also pushed wholesale unleaded gasoline up 5 cents to $2.91 per gallon. Heating oil also surged 3 cents to $3.29 per gallon. Natural gas rose 2 cents to $10.22 per million BTUs.