There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. Most people attribute this phrase to 19th century British politician and writer Benjamin Disraeli (it was later popularized by our own Mark Twain). But more recently, financial blogger Barry Ritholtz has embraced the motto as his raison d'etre.
Ritholtz writes the popular financial/cultural blog The Big Picture, where, among other things, he loves to take the headline numbers and debunk them. He understands the numbers. By day he's a market strategist and fund manager.
Today he rolls his eyes and examines the latest U.S. Census and Dept. of Housing and Urban Development numbers that show a 4.8% rise in new home sales.
What the mainstream press either overlooks or fails to mention is that pesky little margin of error. For September's numbers, for example, the margin of error renders the data statistically insignificant.
So statistically speaking, there was no rise. Nothing getting better on the housing front.
Damned lies and statistics. Mark Twain would surely be a fan of the Big Picture.
Ritholtz writes the popular financial/cultural blog The Big Picture, where, among other things, he loves to take the headline numbers and debunk them. He understands the numbers. By day he's a market strategist and fund manager.
Today he rolls his eyes and examines the latest U.S. Census and Dept. of Housing and Urban Development numbers that show a 4.8% rise in new home sales.
What the mainstream press either overlooks or fails to mention is that pesky little margin of error. For September's numbers, for example, the margin of error renders the data statistically insignificant.
So statistically speaking, there was no rise. Nothing getting better on the housing front.
Damned lies and statistics. Mark Twain would surely be a fan of the Big Picture.
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