Dollar is steady despite U.S. Government's $5 trillion debt 'increase'

Joseph Lazzaro — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 09:40:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Other Issues, Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Housing

The U.S. Government 'adds' $5 trillion in debt, but the dollar doesn't fall. How is this possible?

"Because the currency markets months ago had already factored-in or priced into the dollar some form of U.S. Government takeover of both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," Andrew Resnick, currency trader, told BloggingStocks Monday.

The U.S. Treasury will buy as much as $200 billion in new, senior, preferred stock in Fannie (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie (NYSE: FRE) as part of its takeover of the government service giants, whose business models ran into trouble as the housing boom ended and mortgage defaults soared. The large, potential increase in government spending/borrowing would appear to be unquestionably dollar-bearish. Not so, says Resnick.

"The bailout is going to cost the U.S. Government and taxpayers more money, there's no doubt about that. But if it represents the first step toward reaching a bottom in the housing mess and at the same time stabilizes credit markets, that would be dollar bullish," Resnick said. "And that's the currency market's view at the present time."

Indeed, the dollar showed little signs of a collapse Monday. After dipping early Monday morning in Asia, the dollar firmed and was up about one-half cent to $1.4430 versus the euro, and added three-tenths of a cent versus the British pound. The dollar was rose about 1 yen to 108.52 versus Japan's yen and rose 1 cent to $1.1290 versus the Swiss Franc.

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Despite U.S. economic slowdown, L-3 keeps rolling along

Joseph Lazzaro — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 18:08:00 EST

Filed under: Other Issues, Stocks to Buy

For L-3 Communications, the defense never rests. L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: LLL) makes secure and specialized systems for satellite, avionics, and marine communications, with a healthy percentage of its business coming from the U.S. Government.

Analysts like LLL's diversified revenue stream: specialized products (34%), intelligence/communications (22%), government services (25%), and aircraft modernization and maintenance (19%).

Analysts expect 8%-9% organic revenue growth in 2007 and 7%-8% in 2008, including solid growth in government service and specialized products. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for LLL are $5.95 to $6.51.

The risks? Analysts are keeping their eye on LLL's profit margins, high financial leverage, and ability to increase its low dividend. A substantial decline in U.S. government/defense spending would also hurt L-3's results.

The First Call mean rating for LLL is: Hold [15 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $116.20 [high: $129, low: $108].

Stock Analysis: L-3 Communications is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from LLL's shares. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $78.

Despite U.S. economic slowdown, L-3 keeps rolling along originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 06 Dec 2007 18:08:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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