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April U.S. CPI rises 0.2%, lower than expected

Consumer prices rose 0.2% in April 2008, the U.S. Labor Department announced Wednesday, a statistic below the consensus estimate as oil prices moderated during month, offsetting rising food prices.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected April 2008 consumer prices to increase 0.3%. Consumer prices increased 0.3% in March 2008.

Also, the core rate, which excludes the frequently-volatile food and energy component, rose just 0.2% in April 2008, inline with the Bloomberg News survey 0.2% consensus estimate.

On a year-over-year basis, consumer prices have risen 3.9% and the core rate has risen 2.3%. The core rate remains slightly above U.S. Federal Reserve's 'comfort zone' for inflation. The Fed uses the core CPI rate as one of its primary gauges of consumer-based inflation.

April 2008 CPI: 'Surprisingly tame'

Economist David H. Wang said the April 2008 CPI report was a bit of a surprise -- one that may help the U.S. economy. "The report was surprisingly tame. We do see rising food costs, but the energy component was not as bad as expected," Wang said. "Also, core year-over-year inflation is not too bad, and the Fed [U.S. Federal Reserve] will look favorably upon this, if it remains moderate."

Continue reading April U.S. CPI rises 0.2%, lower than expected

U.S. initial jobless claims fall to 322K, below estimate

U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 15,000 to 322,000 for the week ended Jan. 5, substantially below the 340,000 consensus estimate, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. Last week's claims were also revised upward slightly, to 337,000 from 336,000.

Analysts caution that the weekly statistic is inherently volatile, particular in December, when employers are adjusting staff for the holiday sales period.

Also, the 4-week moving average dropped to 341,000 from a revised 344,000. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

The number of continuing claims decreased by 52,000 to 2.70 million for the week ended Dec. 29, the latest period for which figures were available.

Economic Analysis:
An improvement in the weekly jobless statistic, which was a surprise, but it's important to keep in mind the volatile nature of both the one-week and December statistics. The more-telling four-week moving average is the key, and the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep an eye on it. If the 4-week average drifts above 350,000 and remains there, that would suggest a substantial softening of labor market conditions.

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Last updated: September 08, 2008: 06:45 AM

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