What's one over-the-horizon trend that passengers (and investors) would be wise to monitor closely? Micro airlines.

Micro airlines will be small carriers that target the leisure travel market, stock analyst and frequent flier C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Tuesday.

Bauer is quick to point out that these carriers don't exist today -- the commercial aviation sector's financials can't currently support them -- but when design advances (including composites), increased engine efficiency, and a drop in oil and aviation fuel prices turn in the airline sector's favor, look for micro carriers to sprout, he predicted.

A streamlined air itinerary

Further, Bauer doesn't count current 'regional airlines' or 'express airlines' such as United Express as micro airlines because micro airlines will differ from the former in one significant way: "They'll have vastly reduced check-in times compared to regional airlines," Bauer said. "For a portion of the leisure travel public, this will be the deal-clincher." Bauer added that he doesn't own shares in nor have a rating on any airline.

These are tough economic times for the nation, most would agree, and one hard-hit sector has been the airline sector, specifically the major carriers.

Surging fuel costs, the increased precautions and reviews required for the post-September 11 era, and intensifying competition for international routes has led to large losses among many major carriers - - a condition that has forced them to raise fares and implement other cost-cutting changes.

Most have also instituted a baggage fee for a passenger's second bag, with some carriers charging for all bags. Still, for the most part travelers have taken the baggage fees in stride. Although viewed as a nuisance by many travelers, the reality is a second bag, in particular, is optional weight that increases flying costs per mile. And with aviation fuel zooming past latte-price levels, that's no significant expense.

Still, US Airways Inc. may have gone one too far with the fee system. Effective today, US Airways will start charging for water on flights by coach passengers, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday (subscription required). Bottled water will be $2. Passengers flying first class are exempt from the extra fee.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• In a move to help cut expenses and save on fuel prices, UAL Corporation (NASDAQ: UAUA), parent of United Airlines, will reduce its 460 airplane fleet by 70 jets. Not yet known is how may jobs will be affected, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• In an all stock deal, J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE: SJM) is expected to buy Folgers coffee from The Proctor & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) for an estimated $2B, according to the Wall Street Journal. Folgers, the best selling ground coffee in the U.S., has annual sales of about $1.6B.
• The Financial Times reported that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) lost $500M-$700M on some of its hedging positions in Q2, which have contributed to a larger than expected loss that could result in the bank raising more capital by selling a stake to an outside investor. Lehman has begun negotiations with potential investors, including asset managers and Asian banks, sources said.

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to sources, the Rocky Mountain News reported that troubled home builder Beazer Homes USA Inc (NYSE: BZH) is pulling out of Colorado. Beazer, which is being investigated for mortgage fraud by several government agencies, has built homes in the suburbs of Denver and in Colorado Springs.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Merger talks between UAL Corporation's (NASDAQ: UAUA) United Airlines and US Airways Group Inc (NYSE: LCC) have been put off for now, the Wall Street Journal reported. United is reportedly close to an alliance with Continental Airlines Inc (NYSE: CAL).
• Harris Corporation (NYSE: HRS) is for sale and the company has begun to hear from interested parties, the Wall Street Journal also reported. Harris is looking for $75 to $80 per share. Speculation about the bidders includes General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC).

OTHER PAPERS:

• The Charleston Gazette reported that Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK) has decided not to build its Eastern Division headquarters in Charleston, West Virginia in the wake of a West Virginia Supreme Court ruling on May 22.

WEB SITES:

• AppleInsider reported that Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) is expected to announce a back-to-school deal soon that will encourage students to buy new Macs by offering some of the largest incentives in the history of the company.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) is today expected to increase its sales and profit projections for the next two years, as it reports results of its fiscal year ended April 30. The Wall Street Journal reported that sales are to grow 6% or higher from 4%, while earnings per share growth for the next two years is projected to grow between 8% and 11% from the earlier projection of 7% to 9%.
• It appears that Vistaprint Limited (NASDAQ: VPRT), a graphic design services and printed products company, counts on referral fees from pop up rewards programs on it website for a certain amount of its revenue and profit and also relies on the referral of its customers to outside firms offering rewards programs, which turns out to be a monthly fee for services such as discounts on movies and amusement parks, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street". Some believe the stock, whose shares have plummeted over concerns of slowing revenue and slimmer gross margins, may be trading too high for its own good.
• According to people familiar with their plans, the Financial Times reported that the CEOs of UAL Corporation's (NASDAQ: UAUA) United Airlines and US Airways Group (NYSE: LCC) will today meet to discuss the carriers' potential merger agreement.

OTHER PAPERS:

• The Independent reported that for the second time this month, Barclays Plc (NYSE: BCS) revised lower its calculation of analysts' consensus for its full-year profit, cutting its 2008 figure by nearly 8% to GBP5.876B pre-tax; Barclays cut the calculation 15% two weeks ago.

The oil surge, which gives new indications daily that it's evolving into the world's third oil shock, bodes tougher times for airlines, and travelers alike, many analysts agree.

Moreover, those tougher times may propel "creative and avant-garde" ideas and strategies to cope with the more-challenging flying environment, by both airlines and travelers, so says C. Leonard Bauer, independent stock analyst.

American Airlines (NYSE: AMR) took the first, bold - - and controversial - - step in the 'era of new flying rules' by announcing that it would charge passengers $15 each way to check their first bag, The Dallas Morning News reported. American also reduced its flying schedule by 11-12% at the same time.

Bauer said travelers should brace for more a-la-carte changes from the major carriers, and some truly creative ones, at that. "The airlines will be looking at every way to reduce fuel usage and cover those expenses from added weight," Bauer said, "When oil was at $20 a barrel, weight was a cost factor, but now at more than $125 a barrel, it's a going-concern factor. These high fuel costs can and will force some airlines out of business if they can't recover these costs. 'Light flight' is in." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares of any airline.

Higher oil prices and the surging aviation fuel costs they imply may reduce the benefits of an airliner merger, such as the potential deal between United Airlines and U.S. Airways, but they don't eliminate a merger's long-term positives, an analyst argued Tuesday.

Further, C. Leonard Bauer, independent stock analyst, told BloggingStocks Tuesday the potential United-US Airways union would benefit the sector in that it would be the second merger this year among major airlines in the United States, also known as the legacy carriers.

Shares of UAL Corp. (NYSE: UAUA), parent of United Airlines, are down 88 cents to $14.10, while US Airways (NYSE: LCC) are down 55 cents to $7.79 in Tuesday trading.

Sector right-sizing

"The deal would take another legacy carrier off the table, after the Delta-Northwest merger, and that can only help the sector from an earnings standpoint," Bauer said. "The United States airline sector leads the league in airline route redundancy and duplicate hubs. This second deal would further tighten the sector."

Look for the stalled Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) / Northwest Airline (NYSE: NWA) deal talks to regain momentum and the merger to be announced in the week ahead, an analyst confidently told BloggingStocks Thursday.

Independent stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer, formerly of Prudential, said the Delta / Northwest talks may be stalled by the inability of the companies' pilots unions to reach an agreement on seniority lists, but that traditional, formidable hurdle will not stop this deal from coming to fruition due to its "strong marriage fundamentals."

Attractive fundamentals

Bauer said three fundamentals will drive the deal: absence of overlapping city pairs, economies of scale and passenger demand.

"First, there's the overall flight route fit. Delta and Northwest have only 10 or 12 cities pairs that overlap, so from a destination coverage standpoint, the deal is very attractive," Bauer said. "Second, the new company will have massive economies of scale and will be a force in the new global market. This will be a profitable airline."

Is the U.S. airline sector on the eve of another transformation? One analyst thinks it may be, if recent merger rumblings are any indication.

The Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) / Northwest Airline (NYSE: NWA) merger discussions and chatter that Germany's Lufthansa is considering an investment in a potential merger between United (NASDAQ: UAUA) and Continental (NYSE: CAL) suggest to independent equities analyst C. Leonard Bauer that a new commercial aviation paradigm may be up ahead.

"When you look back at the last 30 years, you can say that the 1980s, clearly, was the decade when mergers were needed to meet the demands of the new market, basically the mass consumer market in the U.S.," Bauer told BloggingStocks Wednesday. "Those larger carriers' lowered seat prices led to a huge increase in domestic travel, which helped bring flight travel to the typical citizen."

Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines may reach a merger agreement within weeks after sharing details of the plan with pilot unions, people close to the talks said, Bloomberg News reported Monday.

An announcement of the merger may come within weeks, Bloomberg News reported.

The merger would create the world's biggest airline in terms of traffic, Delta served about 74 million passengers in 2007; Northwest, about 56 million. The combined entity would vault past no. 1 carrier American Airlines (NYSE: AMR), which served 129.5 million passengers.

Delta's (NYSE: DAL) shares were down 23 cents to $19.95, while Northwest (NYSE: NWS) declined 23 cents to $20.62 in Monday afternoon trading.

Analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Monday a Delta / Northwest represents a good operational fit, for several reasons.