The greatest hurdle to the recovery of the auto industry may not be the credit crisis or high gas prices. It may be the UAW. If it decides not to play ball as part of a federal government bailout, the $25 billion being proposed in an aid package may not be enough, and Congress may decide to abandon the plan completely,

According to the FT, "The US United Auto Workers (UAW) union has ruled out concessions – at least for the time being – to help rescue the ailing Detroit-based car industry." Of course, the argument is deeply flawed and is the kind of logic that has helped bring the industry to its knees. Management blames labor. Labor blames management. Both blame the credit crisis. It is a neat circle which leads nowhere and does not do any of the parties any good.

Imagine being a member of Congress handing out billion of dollars that many taxpayers think should not go to an industry that has wounded itself and many economists say will not ultimately save the US car companies. If the parties who will get the benefit are fighting among themselves, the chance that a rescue can be successful is almost certain to be destroyed.

Detroit has shot itself in the foot. Now, it can move the gun to its head.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

The UAW says that troubles in the car industry are not its fault. According to the union, it was not a series of bad decisions by management either.

"This industry is in a crisis situation not of its own making," Ron Gettelfinger said in an interview Saturday afternoon with The Wall Street Journal (subscription required).

The statement is worth a bit of examination.

Gas prices have been historically low, well under $2 a gallon. The real spike is only a year old and the price per gallon is now back to $2 in many regions of the country. So, did a price pop which lasted three quarters of a year bring down The Big Three?

The other culprit Gettelfinger points to is the problems in the credit markets. Most consumers did not have trouble getting car loans as recent as this summer. Auto companies were offering zero percent financing and thousands of dollars in cash back Buying a car on credit was as easy as getting a subprime loan was three years ago.

The UAW did not ask for exorbitant wages and benefits over the last four decades. Management at the car companies did not rely on SUVs and pick-ups for profits even though they had seen the tremendous damage that the Arab Oil Embargo did to their finances in the 1970s.

In other words, no one involved in the car industry is to blame.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

Detroit's Big Three automakers are finding out assistance is a two-sided process.

President-elect Barack Obama is backing a plan in which U.S. automakers would receive $50 billion in federal aid in exchange for structural changes and oversight by an auto czar or board. An auto czar or board would be patterned after the bailout of Chrysler in 1979 or the City of New York in 1975.

During those two assistance / loan guarantee efforts, the U.S. Government ended up making money on the deals. The revamped Chrysler returned to profitability and actually led both General Motors and Ford in several vehicle categories in the ensuing decades. The streamlined, pro-business City of New York experienced an economic, civic, and cultural renaissance in the 1990s that was surpassed only by the 'Roaring 20s.'

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Thursday a bankruptcy by General Motors or Ford "is economically and psychologically unacceptable." If both filed for bankruptcy and operations were disrupted, "U.S. unemployment would soar over 10%" and the U.S. economy would incur into its deepest recession since the 1981-82 Reagan Administration recession, he said.

Not entirely forgotten, but sitting in the shadows of the potential General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM) merger with Chrysler, is the UAW. The union has decided not to to flex its muscles on its own. It has begun to bring in help from experts. Among those the union has enlisted is a former aid to GM's management -- a nice way to get a little enemy intelligence.

According to Reuters, "Stephen Girsky, a veteran auto-industry analyst and private equity executive, is working with the United Auto Workers union with regards to any potential General Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC deal."

The UAW may be troubled by the fact that some estimates put the job loss of the merger at 60,000. Since the union seems to have fewer members every year, that is a lot of people to have leave. At some point, the UAW's bargaining power is going to move toward zero.

The UAW does not only have to help its current workers, it has to protect funds that are to be supplied by the car companies for benefits and retirement payments. It is not clear whether that capital could be threatened in a marriage of two car companies or not.

GM may not be able to get $10 billion to close the Chrysler deal, and a lot of that money would go to severance. But if a deal goes down, workers might rather keep their jobs than get a buyout which will only carry them for a few months in a recession.

GM cannot handle a strike with its U.S. sales falling 30% and its operations burning $1 billion a month. The UAW knows that. The union holds an ace.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

From an industrial standpoint, few companies symbolize the United States' decade of descent more aptly than Ford.

Ford. The mere name conjures up images of deeply-flawed auto market assumptions, an inability to cope with intense foreign auto manufacturer competition, inertia, and an inability to identify what's considered 'cool' among young adults.

As an example: how many young professionals do you know who want to 'run out and buy a Ford today?' These are the main reasons Ford's (NYSE: F) shares have plunged to about $2 per share. Its market cap is down to about $4.55 billion. In 2000, Ford's shares traded above $30.

Ford: it can't get any worse

Well, to paraphrase a song by The Beatles, Ford's stakeholders, including parties who are sitting on large blocs of stock, 'have to believe it's getting better, because it can't get any worse.'

Ford said it will re-hire 1,000 laid-off workers to assemble the company's most important product, the F-150 pickup, The New York Times reported Friday, with the company adding that it expects consumer demand to increase for the product. As a result, Ford says it doesn't need to merge with anyone to survive.

This is part of a weekly series about the car business. The auto industry plays an important role in the global economy, and record-high oil prices and a global slowdown have contributed to a crisis in the sector. This column will highlight some of the interesting stories that emerge as that crisis plays out.

Last week, I suggested that the auto industry was ripe for consolidation (Car Biz: Look out below!). The very next day the potential merger between General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Chrysler hit the news.

I can't claim that I'm clairvoyant. I just read the news like everybody else. And overcapacity is old news in the car business. Even in good times, there are too many factories producing too many cars and trucks for too few consumers who can afford them. Some estimates put overcapacity in the industry in the tens of millions of vehicles per year. The burgeoning recession just makes this basic fact impossible to ignore any longer.

Now Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli is joining the chorus. He recently said that the rapid and dramatic decline of sales in the American auto market "certainly creates an environment for consolidation." He also spoke about "synergies of productivity" but of course he has to say that. CEOs involved in merger talks always talk about 'synergies' even though they are rarely generated in practice.

Not much has been said about the number of UAW or white collar workers who would lose jobs if GM (NYSE:GM) merged with Chrysler. It would probably be a ton.

Chrysler has close to 200,000 jobs and GM as over 263,000. According to Reuters, "I would personally not want to see anything that would result in a consolidation that would mean the elimination of additional jobs," UAW President Ron Gettelfinger told Detroit local radio station WWJ."

Dream on. The entire purpose of a merger would be to cut costs. While some of that would be done by cutting jobs in administration, finance, and product development, the big saving are in closing plants and killing brands. For two companies which together would have nearly 500,000 employees, that would mean the elimination of tens of thousands of jobs in an industry which has already been downsized to death.

What is certain is that the UAW will not take a merger sitting down. It already gave significant concessions in its last round of negotiations with the Big Three. At some point the union loses even more bargaining power if the car companies can beat it up and takes it lunch money whenever they want to.

If the merger does happen, and that is far from certain, look for labor unrest which has not been seen for several decades. The only way to save jobs will be to strike.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Ford (NYSE: F) delayed the new version of its flagship F-150 pick-up yesterday. It is giving up the ghost on light trucks and SUVs. No one will buy them. Sales are running off as much as 30% compared to last year. The company also cut all of its forecasts. This year Ford will lose money. Next year does not look much better.

All of this news and concerns that Ford may have to raise cash caused Moody's to say it was cutting its outlook on the company's debt, according to MarketWatch.

The news is telling, but not as telling as one of the details buried in the Ford comments on its forecasts. The company said total US vehicles sales for all car companies in the U.S. market would be between 14.7 million and 15.2 million this year. That is down about 300,000 from Ford's last estimates.

But, some analysts think the market may only produce sales of 14 million cars and trucks. Bloomberg reports that Citigroup believes "June auto sales in the U.S. may drop to 12.5 million, their lowest annualized rate in 15 years."

Ford is not set up for a marketplace which only produces 13 million to 14 million units a year. Its share of that market is about 15%. Ford's cost base is set to make money when U.S. consumers buy 15 million vehicles or more.

Can Ford take enough out of costs to make money at much lower levels of sales? Perhaps not. The UAW will have to take a hard stand at some point. Product design costs and factory operations can only be cut so much. The same holds true with marketing budgets.

Ford may have hit a point where it simply cannot structure the company to be profitable in its home market.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) CEO Alan Mulally isn't done cost-cutting. According to people close to the situation, Mulally is considering more job cuts, selling its Volvo brand and closing the troubled Mercury brand.
• BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE: BHP) CEO Marius Kloppers strongly criticized Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE: RTP) and its CEO yesterday, the Financial Times reported. BHP Billiton has outperformed Rio Tinto in several areas, including share price appreciation and EPS growth, said Kloppers, adding, "On every metric I can envisage they [Rio] have been beaten."

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to the Economic Times, AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) is reportedly in preliminary talks with Malaysia's Maxis Communications about buying its 74% stake in Indian cellular phone company Aircel, sources said.
• The United Auto Workers union has rejected several "generous" benefit and wage proposals, according to American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (NYSE: AXL). In a statement yesterday, the Detroit News reported that American Axle said while tentative agreements had been reached on several issues, the UAW "repeatedly rejected" other proposals that were "considerably higher than the market rate."

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that Siemens AG (NYSE: SI) estimated that its earnings this quarter would be dragged down by about $1.4B on weaker-than-expected performance in major business prospects.
• According to the Financial Times, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY) has reportedly made informal approaches to several potential bidders for its baby formula business, Mead Johnson, which is believed to be worth between $7B and $9B.

OTHER PAPERS:

• The Telegraph reported that The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) is expected to announce a $3B writedown this week, part of which is attributable to their stake in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China. Goldman will also have writedowns of about $1.6B in its leveraged loan business.
• Several union leaders are accusing General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) of trying to lower the wages of more positions than the company and union had agreed to under their labor contract, the Detroit News reported.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• What Countrywide Financial Corporation (NYSE: CFC) knew about its mortgage borrowers, and how it handled that information, is under review by Federal investigators, according to the Wall Street Journal. Some of their findings reveal that Countrywide had questionable information, which it then put together many of those mortgages into securities, and sold them to investors.
• The Air Force's award of a $40B contract for aerial refueling tankers to Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) and European Aeronautical Defense & Space, will be protested by The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA), reported the Wall Street Journal.
• The Financial Times reported that News Corporation (NYSE: NWS) CEO Rupert Murdoch dashed the hopes of Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) executives seeking an alternative to Microsoft Corporation's (NASDAQ: MSFT) $40B offer after Murdoch endorsed the view of analysts and investors that it could not match the value offered by Microsoft.

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) president and COO Frederick A. Henderson, the New York Times reported that the auto maker will not intervene in the dispute between parts supplier American Axle and Manufacturing Holdings Inc (NYSE: AXL) and the United Auto Workers union. Given that the strike has not yet hurt the company's ability to sell vehicles, Henderson said company officials "just have to keep to our own knitting."

The head of the United Auto Workers union expects 15,000-20,000 workers to accept General Motors' latest buyout offer, The New York Times reported Friday.

UAW President Ron Gettelfinger said the latest buyout group would be smaller than General Motors' (NYSE: GM) 2006 buyout, when about 34,400 workers -- or one-third of GM's unionized workforce -- accepted deals, The Times reported.

GM's shares were virtually unchanged Friday on the news, rising about 10 cents to $25.92.

Too few taking buyout?

GM's plan is part of an ongoing effort to substantially reduce operating costs. GM lost $38.7 billion last year, and analysts say another successful buyout program is critical to the auto giant returning to profitability in 2008. Independent stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer, formerly of Prudential, told BloggingStocks Friday a potential 20,000-worker buyout is "a decent number" but he wants more.

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM), which today reported an auto industry record loss of $38.7 billion in 2007, is offering its unionized workforce of 74,000 a buyout package. The automaker, along with rivals Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and Chrysler LLC which have offered similar deals, better hope that too many workers don't take it up on its offer.

There is going to be a steep learning curve for even the brightest of newly hired GM employees who under a new UAW contract receive half of the old wage of $28 per hour. Moreover, the last thing that Chief Executive Rick Wagoner wants is for GM's assembly lines to be staffed by inexperienced or overworked employees. The results of that could be disastrous.

Many workers, though, are going to take GM's offer and who can blame them. Workers with 10 or more years service can opt for a one-time payment of $140,000 to leave the company and those with less service could take a $70,000 pay out. These employees may be able to squeeze even more money out of the automaker in the coming months by being hired back as consultants at wages that are much higher than they are getting now.

But I doubt that GM and the rest of the U.S. auto industry can grow its business through cutting costs alone. At a time when global competition is becoming brutal, The Big 3 can't afford to lose too many workers who know how to build cars that people want at prices they can afford.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) may cut additional 9,000 U.S. factory jobs via its latest buyout offer, sources told Bloomberg News Monday.

The cuts, on top of 33,600 union workers who left through buyouts / early retirement in 2006 and 2007, would speed Ford's return to profitability as it would replace them with new workers who would be paid half as much.

Ford's shares gained 5 cents to $6.13 in Monday morning trading on the news.

Necessary cuts

Independent stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer, formerly of Prudential, told BloggingStocks Monday the cuts are part of painful, but necessary changes Ford must make to survive.

"Ford has done a good job in the initial stages of it restructuring, closing useless plants, increasing efficiencies at existing assembly lines, and lowering legacy costs. But the really big savings will come from getting a lower-wage workforce in place," Bauer said. "Because of global competition, auto makers must reduce labor costs by about 30-50%, just to survive. This is another step in that process." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on the company, nor own Ford's shares.

Further, Bauer said he expects the cuts to speed Ford's return to profitability, arguing that if the U.S. recession is mild, or lasting two quarters or less, Ford will earn a profit in 2009. Bauer expects Ford to lose about 15 cents in 2008 and earn about 60 cents in 2009.

If employees of General Motors (NYSE: GM) are sitting back waiting for buyout packages to arrive in the mail, they better keep that champagne on ice. UAW officials warned last week that there won't be a quick announcement on employee buyout packages or early retirement offers coming any time soon.

UAW Vice President Carl Rapson said, "We've not come to any kind of agreement, and it sure as heck isn't going to happen in a week." This was in response to GM's Troy Clarke saying that information on a round of employee buyouts would be happening "within a week." Yes, when GM and the UAW get together to mince words, a turbo-powered margarita blender couldn't produce better fodder than these two organizations.

When and if new GM employee buyout offers come, they will cover employees in the assembly, powertrain and engineering facilities where GM has UAW-covered workers. Rapson did indicate that "meaningful discussions" are continuing between the automaker and the union, but it's "just not accurate" to believe an agreement will be reached so soon. As of this morning, there is no agreement in place. GM workers waiting on a nice, fat check: you'll have to wait a little longer.