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Hot commodity stocks to watch

Despite the U.S. stock market's recent run up, the decline in the U.S. dollar and inflation fears have investors searching for safety in these uncertain times. A popular strategy that has emerged is to hedge market and currency risk with commodities, namely gold, oil, and uranium. What specific stocks and investments in these sectors are likely to outperform?

ETFs like the US Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) and the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) will obviously track any rise or fall in these commodities to a T, but perhaps individual companies in these sectors are a better fit for you. Below are some industry giants, as well as speculative plays that are also drawing attention from investors.

Continue reading Hot commodity stocks to watch

Crude oil: A good play in today's market?

The "Heard on the Street" column in The Wall Street Journal recommends oil as a good play in today's market [subscription]. As crude oil supplies should stay tight, the theory goes that oil prices won't be hit along with the stock and bond market, assuming a continued downturn. Oil, like other commodities, should rise if the dollar continues to weaken because it is a dollar-denominated asset. It's highly unlikely that OPEC will raise production for the commodity, even under pressure from the United States and other nations.

These factors are the primary reasons that many traders remain bullish on crude oil despite its recent drop. The quick take: crude oil could potentially serve as a hedge against overall market weakness because it's not nearly as correlated to the stock and bond market as other assets.

How can we play increasing crude oil prices? I came across two commodity price-related ETFs: iPath Crude Oil ETF (NYSE: OIL) and the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (AMEX: USO). As you can see from the chart, these two funds move nearly in lockstep, but I'd argue that the U.S. Oil Fund makes more sense due to its lower expense ratio -- 0.5% vs. 0.75%.

Oil expert dances the 'contango'

You won't see the contango on Dancing with the Stars; rather its a term used in the futures market to describe the difference in value when the price of a commodity for future deliver is higher than its spot price.

It's also the reason why resource expert Ivan Martchev thinks the US Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) is an excellent short-term trading vehicle but a "terrible" long term investment.

The editor of The Vital Resource Investor explains, "Geopolitical events going on in the Middle East are bullish for oil prices but not necessarily bullish for oil stocks. How come? An attack-driven spike in oil to new highs (proportionately more so the longer the conflict) would likely slow a slowing economy even more."

As a result, he notes, investors should not ncessarily expect to see quick gains in oil stocks if the oil price spikes. He notes, "In conflict-driven spikes that are presumed to be temporary, oil stocks in the past have tended to divorce themselves from the price of oil."

Rather, to play a short-term spike in oil price, the advisor prefers the US Oil exchange-traded fund. As noted at the start of this post, he explains, "USO is a terrible buy-and-hold idea because of the contango in oil futures."

Continue reading Oil expert dances the 'contango'

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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 12:31 PM

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