With the 4th of July approaching, it's always a good time to get a bit of perspective and take a look at what may happen in the second half of the year. As with predictions they generally tend to never come true, but here are 3 market predictions for the 2nd half of the year.

1- Crude oil will trade down under $100/barrel. As global growth continues to slow, especially in overheated emerging markets, some of the the speculative froth will leave the market and the price will start heading down to a point more in line with fundamentals.

2- The US Dollar will rally against the Euro, and reach a level of 1.42 by the end of December, down from the 1.58 current levels. With European growth expected to potentially contract by more than 1% in the coming quarters, and the US staying out of recession, the market will re-focus on growth differentials in the for-ex markets, providing some much needed strength for the greenback.

With the Japanese yen continuing to fall against the US dollar as well as higher yielding currencies such as the South African rand and the British pound, the question is whether the "carry-trade" is back on? If so, stocks may continue to rise.

What's the "carry trade"? It's an investment strategy with currencies, where investors borrow money in a currency with low borrowing costs (such as the yen) and then invest in higher yielding currencies (such as the rand or Australian dollar), earning the spread. If this trade is "back-on," then it shows that investors are more willing to take on some risk, boding well for a continued stock rally as well.

In a report on Bloomberg: "The currency weakened the most against the South African rand and the British pound, two favorites of so-called carry trades, as the cost of protecting bonds from default declined."

The report then spoke with a currency manager: "With stocks rising this much, it doesn't augur well for the yen," said Mitsuru Sahara, senior currency sales manager at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan's second- biggest lender. "Calm is returning to financial markets, and that allows currency traders to focus on rate differentials. The Fed may not have to cut rates much further.''

Keep your eyes on the carry trade to see where the markets may be heading.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 5/2/08

The Fed's job is to control inflation. But is was established originally to keep financial panics from getting out of control. Since last August, it has reverted to its original role and failed miserably. Since it began cutting its Fed Funds rate 57% from 5.25% to 2.25% the price of a barrel of oil has risen 62% from $71 to $115. Simply put, the weaker the dollar, the higher the price of oil. Bloomberg News proves it -- noting that in the last year, there was a 0.96 correlation -- a correlation of 1.0 would be a completely safe bet -- between the Euro-dollar exchange rate and the price of oil.

If it bothers you to pay $3.66 for a gallon of gasoline you can thank the Fed along with cheerleader, Hank Paulson who brags that he's been talking about the U.S.'s strong dollar policy consistently. Of course saying and doing are two different things. Since January 2001, the dollar has lost 70% to the Euro. And since oil is traded in dollars, a drop in the dollar leads to a rise in price. And lower interest rates erode further the value of the dollar since it pays government bond holders a lower rate of return so they sell the U.S. currency and buy higher yielding ones.

But it's unfair to give the Fed all the blame. After all, we have been running the Federal budget at a deficit -- expected to hit $413 billion this year. Since the Fed has started cutting rates, other factors such as speculation by leveraged traders -- relying on the 0.96 correlation -- and political instability seem to have remained at the same level -- although the degree of speculation seems difficult to measure. And U.S. demand has declined due to the economic slowdown. So it looks like those dollar-weakening rate cuts are the one factor powerful enough to offset the demand slowdown to drive prices up.

With investors awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision, the focus of the decision will be felt in the currency markets. In an AP report: "The Federal Reserve is poised to deliver another interest rate cut to millions of people and businesses this week, although that could be the last break they get for a while."

This scenario may be just what the doctor ordered for the dollar. In anticipation of the announcement, the greenback has staged a minor technical rally, albeit on lackluster volume. If the currency market would get the news that future rate cuts are on hold, the dollar may very well start a recovery.

The reason for the recovery is twofold: Firstly, there is interest rate differential. This has been the major driver in the currency market over the last few years. If the Fed would signal an end to rate cuts, by definition this would mean that the differential would no longer widen. The second reason is economic growth. The US was the first major country in the world to enter this period of lackluster growth and with the steps taken( fiscal stimulus and rate cuts), the right measures were implemented to make sure that the US is the first country to get out of the mess. My hunch is that we will see currency markets move away from the 'interest rate differential trade' to that of one focused more on growth.

As I have mentioned many times, the situation in the Euro-zone is nothing to write home about. Surging inflation, slow growth, the banking sector in turmoil. Sounds familiar. The only difference is that the ECB has done nothing to try and right the ship, while the Fed has. Ultimately, when the US gets back to above-average growth late this year or early '09, the aggressive stance the Fed took will be viewed as the reason for the recovery.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 4/29/08

With all the bad news out their I am reminded of the old adage that the best time to invest is "when there is blood in the streets." With gold over $1000/oz. , Carlyle Capital collapsing, the price of crude oil surging, the U.S. dollar at levels not seen in more than a decade, there is no doubt the news today is pretty bad.

With things so gloomy, the real question for investors is whether it's now time to step up to the plate and start buying stocks? While it certainly takes courage to buy stocks in the face of the financial storm that we are in the midst of, just like any patch of bad weather, at some point the sunshine will come out.

No one can say for sure if the stock market will drop another 20% from current levels. What can be said is that the market is sure selling at a large discount to where we were four months ago. I think that in the last century we have only had a handful of instances where the market dropped for four consecutive months. It just doesn't happen too often. Markets always tend to overshoot in both directions, and I have a feeling that we may have overshot on the downside.

With all of today's bad news, maybe it's time to buy stocks.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 3/13/08.

With crude oil well over $100/barrel, gold surging to $1000 per ounce and commodity prices at an all-time high, the question is whether the Federal reserve should keep dropping interest rates. While the bond market is pricing in a cut, should the Fed do it? The Fed's main mandate is to keep prices stable, i.e., to keep inflation under control.

Market watchers attribute the rise in commodity prices to surging inflation and are looking at these hard assets to provide a hedge.

"Every other day, we've got a new record," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore, told The Associated Press. "It's due to the phenomenon of investors getting into commodities, the hard assets, to find a safer haven and a hedge against inflation."

Over the past 12 months, wholesale prices rose by 7.4%, the largest yearly gain since late 1981. Clearly, the Fed is failing at its own core mandate. The Fed needs to return to what it is supposed to do and fight inflation. Inflation will be deadlier for the economy than a few quarters of slowing growth.

The fed should resist Wall Street calls for lower rates (to help bail them out of their own self-created problems), and focus on the greater issue of the economy. Fighting inflation is paramount to this goal.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com.

With all the bad news coming out about the slowing state of the US economy, coupled with the Fed dropping interest substantially over the last few weeks, the one asset that has weathered the storm is none other than the US Dollar. It looks like the Forex markets have changed from a valuation story revolving around interest rate differentials to that of expected growth.

Over the last few years, currencies have moved based on the differences in interest rates between each currency. Had this trend continued, we would be seeing the Greenback get slaughtered over the last few weeks, with the Fed cuts. But what has happened is that the USD has strengthened a bit, confounding the pundits. Why? I think that currency markets are getting back to valuations based on expected growth. With the Fed cuts and the Bush economic stimulus plan, traders believe that the US economy should be back to strong growth in the next quarter or two. Conversely, especially in the Eurozone, the central banks have resisted calls to drop rates, and what will happen is that we will start seeing the US softness spread across the world.

As is often the case, the US, which was the first to experience soft growth, will be the first to exit the trend and return to above trend growth. Keep an eye on the USD, and watch it start to make a recovery.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer has no positions in any stock mentioned as of 2/5/08.

"In the wake of the worst sell-off since 9/11 for most major European and Asian markets, our Fed finally stopped telling us that the building is on fire and entered the building to rescue what it can with an emergency 75 basis point rate cut," notes Jim Lowell.

The editor of Fidelity Investor explains, "The uppshot is that while the rate cut comes too late to cure what's ailing the markets, it does come as a welcome bowl of chicken soup which will help re-nourish the markets over time; look for more bowls of soup (in the form of more rate cuts) to come."

Lowell continues, "For long-term investors like us, time is on our side. After today's sell off, the standard value indicator for whether the markets are over- or under-valued continues to make the case for stocks being the best long-term buy.

"The P/E on the S&P 500 is hovering around 13 – it was north of 16 just a month back; but even a P/E of 16 is a value call. Bonds of every type and duration, on the other hand, are selling at historically high prices and yielding a
paltry sum. Meantime,

"the US dollar, dinged in knee-jerk reaction to today's Fed rate cut, is likely to gain strength as we wend our way through the next several months since the reality of recession is no longer a US but now a global phenomenon and that bell will toll for foreign currencies.

"Against this backdrop, the dollar will be a solid buy for near-term volatility, bonds will trade on the psychology of fear and uncertainty and US stocks will be the best value for long-term money."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Add famed investor Jim Rogers to the list of people who think the economy is heading down the tubes.

In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Rogers predicted that "it's going to be one of the worst recessions we've had in a while because we had so many excesses going into it. It's going to be bad for all of us as currencies come under more and more stress and we have more inflation in the world.''

Moreover, Rogers, who already was bearish on the U.S. dollar, said he hopes to have all of his assets in other currencies by the end of the year. He also predicted that the greenback will be "under duress for many years to come."

Rogers, the head of Rogers Holdings, is hardly the only nervous Nelly about the economy. In a separate interview, with Bloomberg News, Harvard University's Martin Feldstein pegged the odds of a recession at more than 50%, adding that consumers "are going to be a little more reluctant to spend, and that is going to put a further drag on growth in 2008.''

Of course, all of this is great news for the Democrats and bad news for the Republicans, particularly former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, heading into tomorrow's New Hampshire primary. Romney has been touting his experience in corporate America to voters. But voters aren't keen on corporations these days, which is why he's losing ground to Mike Huckabee.

The markets moved significantly lower today as the dollar continued its free fall on news that China diversified its foreign currency holdings.

Over the last five years, the U.S. dollar has lost about 32% of its value compared to the euro (see chart below). What does this mean for you? Well, it means that 32% of the rise in the price of oil is due to the weak U.S. dollar. It means if you want to travel internationally, it is going to cost you about 1/3 more than it would have five years ago.

Some companies benefit from a weak U.S. dollar long term. Domestic agriculture like corn has been strong recently, and companies like Deere (NYSE: DE) that support agriculture benefit. Also, foreign tourists will find it more attractive to visit the United States as their euros will convert into more dollars. So Disney (NYSE: DIS) or Harrah's (NYSE: HAS) Las Vegas casinos could benefit. A weak U.S. dollar helps jobs domestically, as any company that is exporting will find its goods cheaper for foreigners to buy. But all foreign goods are going to be more expensive for Americans to buy.

Believe it or not, but "cheers erupted on the foreign exchange desk at Scotia Capital" yesterday when the loonie (that's what us Canadians call our dollar) first traded at parity with the U.S. dollar -- for the first time in 31 years. I'm sure the scene was similar in other banks across Canada. As is almost usual, though, the Americans beat us to it as they are the ones who actually did the trade, specifically Citigroup's New York currency desk. Oh, well.

The Canadian dollar hit its historic low of 61.79 cents (U.S.) on Jan. 21, 2002, but has gained more than 16% this year and almost 8% since mid-August alone. The True North is indeed strong. But is this good for Canada? For the U.S.? Canadian exporters are no doubt suffering, American ones will be doing better following the fall of the U.S. dollar. Tourism will likely improve in the U.S., but suffer in Canada. And consumers? Canadian consumers aren't happy, but I'm sure U.S. outlet malls along the Canadian border are quite happy. It used to be the other way around.

Analysis provided by Theflyonthewall.com:

The media is starting to report again that the weakening of the U.S. dollar means bad things for the US economy. On Monday, the dollar continued its decline against other major currencies, at $1.31 Euro and $1.93 British pounds. It must be the inherently bad U.S. trade deficit that is causing the decline in the dollar, journalists and network commentators suggest. Last week, the entire CNBC Squawk Box team was squawking off about the trade deficit with China having a deleterious impact on the United States.

CNBC's bantering comes as U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke are about to travel to China to persuade officials to let the yuan currency further appreciate versus the US dollar.

While the Bush Administration is now a lame-duck presidency, Paulson and Bernanke might still have success as China officials will most likely want to avoid a battle with the new Democrat-led U.S. Congress with Sen. Charles Schumer (D-New York), Congressman Barney Frank (D-Massachusetts), and Congressman Charles Rangel (D-New York) taking charge of policy.

Look for China to agree to a continued slow and steady appreciation of the yuan versus the U.S. dollar to avoid any nasty retaliation from the new U.S. Congress.