This post was written by Minyanville contributor James Kostohryz.

As per the trade I laid out yesterday, with today's durable goods orders number that was significantly better than expected, we might be looking at S&P 930 today rather than sub 900 if the market had not gotten blindsided by yesterday's sudden plunge in long bonds. That's what stops are for.

But let's put this in perspective: A 12-point drop between yesterday's high of around 913 and the current level of 901 is small potatoes relative to what is at stake here.

Just call it 'two steps forward, one step back' for the global trade talks.

The collapse of the World Trade Organization's trade talks this week without an agreement is a setback, economists contacted by BloggingStocks agreed, but it is not likely likely to prevent international trade from growing in 2009.

The nine-day talks in Geneva -- aimed at completing the Doha Round -- collapsed Tuesday after the United States and the European Union could not reach an agreement with China and India on what constituted acceptable tariffs for food imports, The New York Times reported Wednesday. The U.S. and E.U. say China and India wanted to impose prohibitively high tariffs. China and India counter that they were insisting on safeguard rules to protect their food supplies.

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks the elimination of food import tariffs would have resulted in more-efficient deployment of resources, and, ultimately, lower food prices for consumer around the world, along with increased the increased commerce that trade brings. "The failure of the talks is a real loss for consumers in China, India and in the U.S. and Europe," Langan said. "It will also really hurt low cost food producers in Brazil, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. Ultimately, China and India will have to relent, or the west may begin to complain about free trade conditions for manufacturing and services. That manufacturing free trade policy has been the source of a considerable amount of China's and India's economic growth."

Data from the U.S. and Japan suggest economic activity is slowing for the more mature economies around the globe. U.S. retailers are coming in light on revenue -- and remember that close to 70% of U.S. GDP is consumer driven. However, emerging-market economies appear to be growing nicely, with China being of particular note, growing GDP 11.1% in the most recent quarter, above its 9% target rate.

China officials have been attempting to get growth back to its 9% GDP target for quite some time, so far without much success. And the economies of other commodity-focused counties continue to do well.

Is the Fed responsible for the world's economy or just that of the U.S.? This is a very difficult question to answer. However, the last time world leaders let broad-based inflation pick up, in the late sixties and early seventies, it culminated in the breakdown of the Bretton Woods agreement and the global economy went through decades of hell. Emerging markets were the most severely punished.

This is a serious issue the central bankers of the larger and more mature economies need to address. Is it worthwhile for the mature economies to approach a recession while emerging markets attempt to slowdown their economies? We will see. They must be discussing that issue right now.

General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM) CEO Rick Wagoner should get some lessons in motivational speaking if he wants to fire up the carmaker's workforce to beat back Toyota Motor Corp.'s (NYSE:TM) challenge to its number one position in the market.

When the AP asked what he would do if Toyota becomes number one, he replied: "It won't be a happy day for me, but I've lost basketball games before in my life. You get ready and you learn and you go back the next day, and that's what we'll do. We're going to fight to keep the position, and if one day we lose it, we'll fight to get it back."

Wow, those are certainly not very inspiring words. Can you imagine if coach told his team that he wouldn't be "happy" if they lost? I hope Wagoner is more persuasive in private. A Toyota spokesman is equally disingenous when he told the wire service that, " a perceived sales challenge for global leadership is not something we're even thinking about." Toyota has already overtaken DaimlerChrylser (NYSE:DCX) and is now the third-largest automaker.

It annoys me when business executives deny the obvious. There are winners and losers in the real world, where people scratch and claw their way to the top. Toyota's challenge to General Motors is serious. The Japanese automaker is vowing to produce 9.42 million vehicles in 2008, exceeding the 9.2 million GM is estimated to have made in 2006, the AP said. Wagoner wouldn't reveal GM's product targets but said the company has the capacity to make more than 9.42 million cars, the wire service said.

Wagoner expects the market in North America to be healthier this year. He also says the company is hoping consumers will be attracted by the quality of its products rather than be steep discounts.