California has a huge deficit and will not be going to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for financial assistance. This is true of a dozen other states as well.

The European Union, which was established to compete with the economic clout of the United States, is looking like the European Dis-Union (EDU) -- currently "dissing" on the state of Greece. This EDU is a far cry from the good 'ol USA, which has plenty of economic and social strife of its own, but even under the most stressful times has demonstrated it takes care of its own.

Banks around the world have been raising capital in the last few months. If the market is efficient, then the cost of capital for these banks should tell us something about how risky they are. Based on the relative cost of capital of banks in the U.S. compared to those in France, Germany and Switzerland, the world's riskiest banks are right here in the good old USA. The safest banks? French ones.

How so? Here is the rough (due to different capital structures) after-tax cost of capital for the banks in different countries:

• U.S.: Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is paying a 17% interest rate and Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) pays almost 17%
• UK: Barclays pays 16%; HBOS, Lloyds TSB; and Royal Bank of Scotland pay about 12%
• Germany: Commerzbank pays 10%
• Switzerland: UBS's interest rate is relative bargain of 9.9%
• France: BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, and four others pay the lowest rate -- 5% -- for their capital

Maybe there's some sort of trading opportunity to short U.S banks and go long French ones. C'est la vie!

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College. His eighth book, You Can't Order Change: Lessons From Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing, will be published by Portfolio on December 26, 2008. He has no financial interest in Goldman or Morgan Stanley securities.

Oil got off to a strong start today, with prices at one point moving up as high as $130.69 a barrel as fears of supply disruptions in Iran have kept the market bullish for the time being.

Prices cool off a bit and are now sitting at $129.40, but you can be sure that as long as the tension between the West and Iran persists, you are going to continue to see prices that just refuse to come back down towards any sort of comfortable level.

Last week, we saw a pretty sizable drop in oil prices (see chart at the end of this post), which could be the main reason why this morning's rally was not able to hold above the $130 mark. Investors are probably still a bit weary of betting that we have hit support yet. What really got the market moving early on was fresh threats from the U.S. that more sanctions would be imposed on oil-rich Iran should it not cease its current nuclear program.

BusinessWeek reports that some companies are now making it possible for people to buy products that are NOT made in China. For example, Swiss ingredient maker DSM Nutritional Products launched a "premium" Vitamin C that's made in Scotland rather than China, which provides 80% of the world's supply. Now DSM's Quali-C Vitamin C brand is benefiting from consumer's reluctance to buy Chinese products in the wake of the contamination incidents.

Here are three other companies likely to benefit from this anywhere-but- China sentiment:

• Fairway, an upscale New York grocery, reassures consumers that none of its seafood is Chinese;
• International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is pushing systems to trace the food supply from source to market so that people will know where their products come from;
  
• Freshpet, a Secaucus, NJ all-natural producer of premium dog food blended from meat and vegetables has seen its distribution increase from 200 stores to 1,000 stores, with another 1,000 coming by the end of 2007, tripling its sales to $50 million.

I sense an opportunity for a publicly-traded purveyor of anywhere-but-China consumer products -- maybe Freshpet can do an IPO. It looks to me like IBM's offering will not grow to be big enough to make a significant boost to its corporate profits.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in IBM.