Analyst Upgrades

• Credit Suisse upgraded AT&T (T) to outperform from neutral and has a $35 target on the stock. Credit Suisse believes the impact from AT&T's loss of iPhone exclusivity will be less than expected and that the stock should benefit from its earnings growth and dividend yield.
• Goldman upgraded Freeport McMoRan (FCX) to buy from neutral and raised its price target to $94 from $79 based on improving copper fundamentals.
• Benchmark Co. upgraded Valueclick (VCLK) to vuy from hold on expectations Google Instant (GOOG) could drive marketing traffic. The firm raised its target price for Valueclick shares to $15 from $11.
• Best Buy (BBY) was upgraded to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• Research In Motion (RIMM) was upgraded to buy from sell at Societe Generale.
• CarMax (KMX) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.

Whether you want to believe it or not, more indicators pop up each week that point to improvements in the housing market. Either we're at the bottom now, or we will be soon.

Of course, I just bought my first ever home in September of 2009 (a short-sale in Montgomery County, Md.) so perhaps I'm biased. But even in the worst markets there are signs of life in housing that should encourage investors and homebuyers alike.

Here are three top signs that the housing market has bottomed out.

The major indices continued to rally into the close Monday, after spending most of the day down substantially. The Dow ended the day up fractionally and the S&P 500 was down less than one point. Institutional money continues to enter the markets, says Jim Cramer, and that has limited the size and duration of pullbacks.

Even as the uncertainty comes out of the markets, the clarity that replaces it is tepid at best. But with the S&P 500 resting at seven-month highs, one troublesome sector has badly lagged: housing and home-building stocks.

Today's late rally tied to breaking news of President-elect Obama's naming Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary for the next administration, but there was also an end of week bargain-buying hunt. Today was also options expiration. Whatever the real determination was, at least it was not yet another miserable day of relentless selling.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

DJIA: 8,046 (+6.5%)
Nasdaq: 1,384 (+5.2%)
S&P 500: 800 (+6.3%)

Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) posted earnings at $0.35 EPS on revenue of $246 million. While other retailers are stinking up a storm, this compares to earnings of $0.30 EPS and revenue of $238 million last year. While sales did drop over 7% to $3.56 billion, analysts' estimates from Thomson Reuters (First Call) were only $0.34 EPS and $3.57 billion. Shares were up 21% at $11.62 right before the close.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) hired Sean Suchter, the former head of search operations at Yahoo! This could give them the brains and engine behind the search business without ever having to pay Yahoo! a dime. Shares were up 8% at $19.01 shortly before the close.

Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) managed a show of force when times are tough. The sporting apparel giant raised its quarterly dividend payout by 9% to $0.25. Shares were up over 6% at $46.41 right before the close.

USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) shares surged after disclosing that Warren Buffett and Faifax invested a combined $400 million into the home building products maker. This was on top of their investments in the company in the past. Shares were up 24% at $7.04 shortly before the close.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) rallied after the board of directors elected Mike Duke to replace Lee Scott as President and CEO of Wal-Mart, effective February 1, 2008. Shares were up almost 2% at $51.55 right before the close.

Moody's (NYSE: MCO), a provider of credit ratings, closed at $21.61 Wednesday. MCO is scheduled to announce Q3 EPS on October 29. Warren Buffett's Berkshire owned a 19% stake in MCO as of December 31, 2007. MCO November call option implied volatility is at 117, puts are at 131; above its 26-week average of 58 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

USG (NYSE: USG), a building materials company, closed at $19.68 Wednesday. USG is scheduled to report Q3 EPS on October 28. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway owns 17% of USG. USG November call option implied volatility is at 71, puts are at 81; above its 26-week average of 44 according to Track Data suggesting larger price movement.

American Express (NYSE: AXP) closed at $25.02 Wednesday. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway owns a 13% stake in AXP. AXP November option implied volatility of 80 is above its 26-week average of 51 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Last year I wrote a very positive Chasing Value article suggesting that USG Corp (NYSE: USG) looked like a value proposition when it was trading around $52 a share. We bought it and to say we were way too early would be very very kind because it dropped with the market in the summer and has only recovered slightly.

Even worse, Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke are finally talking about a recession and USG is still laying off more workers, attempting to balance labor and product demand in a weak housing market and soft economy.

Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) is still the largest shareholder, owning over 17% of the outstanding shares. Most of what I liked last year holds true but the depth of the economic downturn shows little signs of improvement. Housing and most related construction service industries are just trying to survive. They have all cut back production.

There is little consensus when the economy might start to show significant signs of improvement, but there are few people who think it will be soon, and I have spoken with many in the business community who think it will be 18 months at least. However, timing the market is always difficult so I believe that the best you can do is try and buy solid companies on the cheap. The difficulties that USG is weathering now will turn into strengths in the future as it streamlines the enterprise, reduces debt, and plans for the future.

Furniture Brands-(NYSE:FBN) markets residential furniture through Broyhill Furniture, Lane Furniture, Thomasville Furniture and HDM Furniture. FBN is recently up $3.30 to $13.44 after Samson Holding reported a 14.9% stake in FBN. Samson has indicated it may seek to acquire control of the company. FBN reported June 2007 quarterly total revenue of $535 million. FBN will host an investor day on 10/23 in New York City. FBN October option implied volatility of 54 is above its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

USG-(NYSE: USG), a manufacturer and distributor of building materials, is recently up $.57 to $38.14 on renewed & unconfirmed takeover chatter. Unconfirmed chatter is circulating today that a consortium of four of the largest Chinese construction companies wants to acquire a 24% stake in USG. China Overseas Land is one of the names mentioned in the consortium. Warren Buffet is an owner of approximately 19% of USG. USG October 40 calls have traded 72 times on transaction volume of 2,103 contracts above its open interest of 2,013 contracts. USG October option implied volatility of 42 is above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data suggesting larger price risk.
Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: McGraw-Hill (MHP), Stein Mart (SMRT), USG Corp (USG) and Seacoast Banking (SBCF) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• JP Morgan downgraded shares of McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP) to Neutral from Overweight based on expectations for a decline in credit market issuance activity.

• Stein Mart (NASDAQ: SMRT) was cut to Sell from Neutral at Merrill, citing macroeconomic concerns and the impact on margins and comps.

• Matrix cut USG (NYSE: USG) to Sell from Buy and removed them from the Focus List, Matrix cited the 55% cut in excess cash per share over the past year, which makes shares expensive on a performance-adjusted basis.

• Stifel views Seacoast Banking (NASDAQ: SBCF) as overvalued, downgrading shares to Sell from Hold, given earnings growth headwinds from credit quality and net interest margin compression...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Tenneco Automotive (NYSE: TEN) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman.

• Brookdale Senior Living (NYSE: BKD) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel.

• Keefe Bruyette cut Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) to Underperform from Market Perform.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

More Countrywide Financial news

MOST NOTEWORTHY: DaimlerChrysler (DCX), Omniture (OMTR), Convergys (CVG), Expedia (EXPE) and Baidu.com (BIDU) were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• WestLB upgraded shares of DaimlerChrysler (NYSE: DCX) to Buy from Add after the company raised the profit margin forecast for its Mercedes unit.

• Omniture (NASDAQ: OMTR) was upgraded by Piper Jaffray to Market Perform from Underperform to reflect the company's strong revenue momentum and expanding margins.

• Wedbush upgraded Convergys (NYSE: CVG) to Hold from Sell on valuation.

• Citigroup raised shares of Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) and Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU) to Buy from Hold on valuation...

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Bear Stearns upgraded shares of Ryder System (NYSE: R) to Outperform from Underperform.

• Lehman raised EnCana Corp (NYSE: ECA) to Equal Weight from Underweight.

• USG Corp (NYSE: USG) was raised to Neutral from Underperform at Buckingham.

• Morgan Keegan upgraded shares of Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA) to Outperform from Market Perform.

• Citigroup raised Cullen/Frost Bankers (NYSE: CFR) to Hold from Sell.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

On today's STOP TRADING! segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer addressed the homebuilders all being up based on the very unconfirmed rumors that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) was taking a stake in homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV). Cramer said it would more likely be Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) because Hovnanian is more regional and he can go in bigger with Pulte. This shows that it is too hard to short in this market. Cramer said Buffett has always liked this group.Cramer also noted USG Corp. (NYSE:USG) as one of the core housing-related plays that Buffett owns.

What is interesting is that Buffett and Hovnanian would probably not make as much sense as him looking at either a component maker that sells to all homebuilders or as much as one of the larger housing stocks. It has too much exposure to Southern California and the entire hurricane band of Florida. If you don't believe it look at its mapping demo. Buffett is still wanting to make "The Whale of Deal" and Hovnanian has a mere $1.15 billion market cap. Back on May 7 we gave a list of potential US targets that could make sense in the "Whale" category for Buffett.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: HouseValues, Inc (SOLD), Fortune Brands (FO), D.R. Horton (DHI), Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS) and USG Corp (USG) were some of today's noteworthy initiations:

• Cantor believes HouseValues (NASDAQ: SOLD) may be a lagging indicator of the broader real estate market. As such, it may see its customer and revenue bases contract further in the face of still-sluggish housing data and started shares with a Hold rating.

• Pali Research initiated Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) with a Neutral rating based on valuation.

• The firm also believes D.R. Horton's (NYSE: DHI) risk to book value and profitability is higher than some of the competition since the company has taken significantly less land charges. Shares were initiated with a Hold rating.

• Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) was initiated with an Outperform at Baird and is positive on Dick's store expansion, market leadership, margin opportunities and fundamentals.

• USG (NYSE: USG) was initiated with a Sell rating at Banc of America, believing wallboard price and profit declines will be worse than expected due to lower housing starts and less spending on remodeling. Their analysis suggests another leg down for housing...

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Morgan Joseph started Jamba, Inc (NASDAQ: JMBA) with a Buy rating.

• Wachovia started Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) with a Market Perform rating.

• Baird started Golfsmith International Holdings (NASDAQ: GOLF) with a Neutral rating.

• Merrill Lynch initiated Bayer AG (NYSE: BAY) with a Buy rating and UBS initiated QLogic (NASDAQ: QLGC) with a Neutral rating.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) highlighted the struggles of casual dining chain Applebee's International (NADSAQ: APPB), where even the company's founder said "[Applebee's] doesn't have anything that would make me want to come back".

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to the U.K. Times, Vodafone Group (NYSE: VOD) is the favorite to win the European rights for Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone, despite stiff competition from rivals Orange and T-Mobile.
• From BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" column:
• There's talk that Warren Buffett may increase his 17% stake in USG Corporation (NYSE: USG) before the housing cycle turns.
• Demand is surging for Kaydon Corporation's (NYSE: KDN) anti-friction bearings, which are used in robotics, aerospace, and other industries, including wind power equipment.
• Analysts say United Retail Group Inc (NADSAQ: URGI) has perfected fashion for the large womens' market, size 14 and over.

DOW JONES & COMPANY (NYSE: DJ)

Could it happen? Could News Corporation (NYSE: NWS) pull its offer? They could, and the fear is absolutely there. That's why the stock has fallen. For one, the Bancroft family, which controls the majority of Dow Jones' shares, hasn't formally accepted Rupert Murdoch's $5B, $60 a share offer. And no one else has come forward with a competing bid. But it does seem that both sides are moving together in the same direction. Okay, but somebody should make up their mind -- either way -- and stop fiddling around.

EXPEDIA INC (NASDAQ: EXPE), IAC/INTERACTIVECORP (NASDAQ: IACI)

Barry Diller is back at it. The chairman and CEO of IAC/InteractiveCorp, who is also chairman of the board and a senior advisor to Expedia, is working to take online travel firm Expedia private at $30 a share. Part of any deal will involve Expedia's TripAdvisor being spun off with about 400 jobs being lost in that shuffle.

PENN NATIONAL GAMING INC (NASDAQ: PENN)

After many, many laps around the track, this race is over, as race track and casino operator Penn agreed to be acquired today by Fortress Investment Group LLC (NYSE: FIG) and private equity firm Centerbridge Partners. All cash, baby, in a deal worth $8.9B that includes $2.8B of assumed debt. Everyone to the Winner's Circle.

I have not written a Chasing Value post for quite a while because I could not find anything to brag about for a couple of weeks, but then I found something hiding in plain sight.

Few things are more plain and simple than drywall. The same can be said for the purity of this stock from a value perspective. I have been watching USG Corp (NYSE: USG) for a while and today I bought it for $52. I should have bought it last week but other priorities prevented it.

Looking at the stock fundamentals I did a double take because it all seems too good to be true. Starting with the following chart, I remind readers that I am not a technical analyst and don't believe in it, however I do look at charts for two features that are best represented graphically and allow you to see the story quickly.

When Warren Buffett announced he wanted to use between $40 and $60 billion to buy a company several days ago, picking a target for the billionairest of all billionaires became the favorite pastime of financial writers everywhere -- and our bloggers were as eager as anyone else to come up with just the thing for the guy who already has everything (and everything, in this case, includes bunches of shares of companies as diverse as dull sheetrock manufacturer USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) to hip shoe company Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE)).

Of course, Buffett's needs are unique. First of all, the company has to be both big and a good value -- no 80x P/E multiples for Warren. It has to be a relatively simple business (I'm thinking nanotech is out), have a good management team and no dark and dirty secrets (so sub-prime lenders are probably off the list). Finally, the company should have solid, long-term competitive advantages.

Sheldon Liber suggests a couple that might make the grade: Allstate Corp. (NYSE: ALL), the insurance company, which at about $38 billion in market capitalization and a 7.8x P/E ratio fits both the "big" and "cheap" qualifiers. Plus, we all know that Warren Buffett loves insurance companies, and given its retail approach, it's not much of a competitor with longterm portfolio company GEICO. Emerson Electric (NYSE: EMR) also seems a good candidate with its $37 billion market cap and 19x P/E ratio -- but is it simple enough? Its business is, according to Hoover's, making "a host of electrical, electromechanical, and electronic products, many of which are used to control gases, liquids, and electricity." Hmmm.

When Gary Sattler suggests Warren might buy General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE)'s plastics division, it's a good concept (simple, well-managed) but the price is way too low at around $10-12 billion. A commenter, however, brings up a good replacement in Lowe's Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW); it has a $47 billion market cap and a reasonable P/E ratio of 15.5x. What's more, it has none of the bad-management baggage of competitor Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD). Does it have a "moat," though? I suppose that's a question for Warren. He does own some of each company, meaning that he's already emotionally invested in the sector (a plus) although it's obvious from our near-tie in the Battle of the Brands that neither holds a substantial consumer-facing edge competitively.