Analyst Upgrades

• Akamai (AKAM) to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Aetna (AET) to Outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• Hot Topic (HOTT) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Colonial Properties (CLP) upgraded to Outperform from market perform at FBR Capital and to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Altera (ALTR) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• American Reprographics (ARC), CarMax (KMX) and American Campus (ACC) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Zebra Tech (ZBRA) to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• IMAX (IMAX) to buy from hold at Canaccord.
• Basic Energy (BAS) to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• Mednax (MD) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• UTi Worldwide (UTIW) to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

As the calendar quarter winds down, let's take look at some of this coming week's biggest expected earnings gainers.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Memphis-based Fred's Inc. (NASDAQ: FRED) to report fourth-quarter earnings of $0.22 per share, 36.4% higher than a year ago, and revenue of $472.5 million, down 4.4%. For the full year, the forecast is for a profit of $0.66 per share on revenue of $1.8 billion, compared to $0.52 per share and $1.8 billion in the previous year. The discount retailer beat or met earnings estimates in the past three quarters. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 14.0%, which is better than the industry average and that of larger rival Walmart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and the forward PE ratio estimate is 15.0. In the third quarter, the company had more cash than debt. The consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy FRED. The share price has risen 2.7% since the beginning of the year to $11.05.

Analyst upgrades:

• Merriman upgraded shares of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to Neutral from Sell as they believe consensus estimates for Q4 and FY09 are no longer too high. In addition, the firm believes Google's slowing capex spend will improve margins and their recent channel checks indicate the company's ad coverage has increased significantly during Q4.
  
• Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Outperform from Perform following yesterday's disclosures regarding Steve Jobs' health. The firm has a $135 price target on Apple shares.
  
• UBS upgraded BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $31 from $28 citing easier booking comps in the March quarter.
• YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Wachovia.
  
• Goldman removed Hewitt (NYSE: HEW) from its Conviction Sell List.

Analyst downgrades:

• Stephens downgraded Emergency Medical Services (NYSE: EMS) to Equal Weight from Overweight on valuation, as they believe the stock is fairly valued at current levels. The firm maintains a $39 price target.
  
• Merriman downgraded Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) to Neutral from Buy after Super Micro pre-announced a Q2 miss to reflect the company's "challenging" outlook.
  
• Baird downgraded Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG) to Neutral from Outperform citing Revlimid growth concerns following their most recent survey and potential pressures on the European business and on Thalomid.
• Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) was lowered to Market Perform from Outperform at Leerink.
  
• Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) was cut at Goldman to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays.

Analyst initiations:

• Merriman believes Itron (NASDAQ: ITRI) is well-positioned to benefit from the upgrade to Advanced Metering Infrastructure by tier one utilities and finds the stock attractively valued. Shares were initiated with a Neutral rating.
  
• Oppenheimer assumed Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE: JLL) with a Perform rating and expects the company's growth to slow in 2009 given global credit concerns and the economic slowdown.
  
• Citigroup started Telmex (NYSE: TMX) with a Sell rating and $15 target. The firm believes the company's inability to offer 3-play services could lead to accelerated market share loss in 2009.
• Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) was initiated at Janney Montgomery with a Neutral rating and $31 fair value estimate.
  
• Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE: AJG) was initiated with a Neutral rating at Piper Jaffray.
  
• Jesup & Lamont assumed UTi Worldwide (NASDAQ: UTIW) with a Buy rating and $18 target.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH), RF Micro Devices Inc (RFMD), UTi Worldwide Inc (UTIW) and Viacom B (VIA, VIA.B) were some of today's more notable downgrades:

• UBS cut UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE: UNH) to Neutral from Buy citing moderating fundamentals in commercial performance and large government exposure that will make it difficult for the company to outperform its peer group.

• Jefferies downgraded RF Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ: RFMD) to Hold from Buy with a $7 target as the firm believes the company's June guidance signals a slow down of second-half fundamentals.

• Stephens cut UTi Worldwide Inc (NASDAQ: UTIW) to Equal Weight from Overweight based on ongoing cost issues.

• Viacom (NYSE: VIA, VIA.B) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Sanders Morris to reflect weak ad growth at MTV, digital revenues that the firm believes are a displacement rather than accretive to the revenue base and the lawsuit against Google's (GOOG) YouTube, which the firm feels is the wrong call.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Matrix USA cut Total Systems Services (NYSE: TSS) to Sell from Hold and NIC Inc (NASDAQ: EGOV) to Hold from Buy on valuation.

• Sealed Air Corp (NYSE: SEE) was taken down to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia citing valuation.

• HSBC downgraded shares of British Sky Broadcasting Group plc (NYSE: BSY) to Underweight from Neutral.

• Friedman Billings downgraded shares of Maguire Properties, Inc (NYSE: MPG) to Market Perform from Outperform citing the fallout from subprime-exposed office space.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).