Independent oil/natural gas company Ultra Petroleum (UPL) first discussed here on June 4, 2009 at a price of $46, continues to disappoint investors this autumn, with the stock failing to break above $50, after the shares formed a bear hug this summer -- a bearish pattern, falling from $54 to about $37 in the process.

Moreover, the plunge was surprising because Ultra's growth prospects are strong, with 3-year reserve replacement rates that are among the best in its class; below-competitor operating expenses represent another UPL advantage.
One factor in the stock's slide? Lower-than-expected natural gas prices.

Analyst Upgrades

• Procter & Gamble (PG) upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Capital One (COF) upgraded to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Airgas (ARG) upgraded to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Broadcom (BRCM) upgraded to positive from neutral at Susquehanna.
• Lululemon (LULU) upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies.
• DryShips (DRYS) upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.

Analyst Upgrades

• Sprint (S) was upgraded to neutral from underweight at Piper Jaffray.
• Cree (CREE) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.
• Brocade (BRCD) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• JPMorgan upgraded WuXi PharmaTech (WX) to overweight from neutral.
• Barclays upgraded ITC Holdings (ITC) to overweight from equal weight.
• Centene (CNC) was upgraded to outperform from underperform at Oppenheimer.
• Senior Housing (SNH) was upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• UBS upgraded Hovnanian (HOV) to neutral from sell.
• GeoResources (GEOI) was upgraded to accumulate from neutral at Madison Williams.
• Compellent (CML) was upgraded to hold from sell at Canaccord.

I first discussed Ultra Petroleum (UPL) here on June 4, 2009, at a price of $46. The independent oil/natural gas company has disappointed investors this summer, as the shares formed a bear hug -- a bearish pattern -- plummeting from $54 to about $37 in the process.

Moreover, the plunge was surprising because Ultra's growth prospects are strong, with three-year reserve replacement rates that are among the best in its class; below-competitor operating expenses represent another UPL advantage.
One factor in the stock's slide? Lower-than-expected natural gas prices.

Analyst Upgrades

• Canaccord believes growth in DigitalGlobe's (DGI) commercial business will be a catalyst for shares. The firm upgraded shares to buy from hold and has a $38 price target on the stock.
• Standpoint upgraded Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) to accumulate from hold based on valuation. The firm has a $47 target on the stock.
• Morgan Keegan upgraded Open Text (OTEX) to outperform from market perform based on the company's strong FY2011 EPS outlook.
• Devon Energy (DVN) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Magna (MGA) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• EnCana (ECA) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie.

It appears that financial institutions, drug makers and oil companies have caught the attention of traders today -- at least, that's what they're searching for.

If you want to know what stocks traders are interested in right now at this very second, you need look no further than what's hot in Google.

Here's what's hot today.

Readers of this space know that one of the preferred sectors is oil / oil services, and with the aforementioned in mind, Ultra Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: UPL) is worth a review.

In general, analysts expect good things in FY2009 from independent oil and natural gas producer Ultra Petroleum. Production should rise 20% in FY2009, following an equally-impressive 20% rise in FY2008.

Among all the negative economic data that came out last week was a positive surprise: retail sales were higher in January. A fluke or a glimmer at the end of the tunnel? That may depend on whether we see any positive surprises arising from items on this week's economic calendar:

• Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference: Monday through Friday
• NY Empire Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 8:30 AM
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Fed's Bullard speaks before National Association of Business Economists: Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Housing starts (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 8:30 AM
• Fed's Pianalto speaks before Commercial Developers Power Breakfast: Wednesday, 9:00 AM
• Industrial production (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 9:15 AM
• Fed's Bernanke speaks before National Press Club Luncheon: Wednesday, 12:30 PM

During July, the prices of oil exploration and coal stocks mentioned in my newsletter tumbled precipitously. For example, Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) and Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) lost roughly a quarter of their value by the end of July and Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL) and Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN) which had been up over 40% through June ended July up a relatively paltry 4% and 11% respectively.

I find this interesting because it violates one of the basic theories I have about what moves stock prices. This beat-and-raise theory says that if a company beats earnings estimates and raises its guidance, then the stock will rise. Otherwise it will fall. In the case of these four companies, each of them with the exception of Ultra which did not report, reported doubling or tripling of earnings and raised their guidance.

So why did their stocks fall? In the case of the oil and gas companies, it could be because of declining oil prices. Those peaked at $146 a barrel and recently traded at $127. But I am not aware of any diminution in the price of coal for which demand is strong due to Chinese and Indian infrastructure investment among other factors. Coal is used to make steel and to fire up power plants.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Smart Balance, Cascal NV and Ashland were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Citigroup initiated Smart Balance (NASDAQ: SMBL) with a Hold rating and $9 target, as they believe success of the company's new products is not a foregone conclusion and prefers to wait for increased visibility before becoming more positive on the name.
  
• JP Morgan believes Cascal NV (NYSE: HOO) will leverage its global scale and expertise in water infrastructure markets to drive 25% annual EPS growth through 2010. The firm has an Overweight rating on the stock.
  
• Ashland (NYSE: ASH) was started with a Positive rating as Susquehanna, as they are positive on ASH's earnings power. The firm views shares as a compelling risk/reward opportunity.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Broadpoint assumed SuccessFactors (NASDAQ: SFSF) with a Strong Buy rating and $12 target.
  
• Morgan Stanley initiated Fastenal (NASDAQ: FAST) with an Equal Weight rating and $40 target.
  
• RBC Capital started Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL) with a Sector Perform rating and $80 target.

Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR), a global oil and gas exploration and production company with refining and marketing operations, will report Q4 EPS on January 31. MUR overall option implied volatility of 40 is above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL) is an independent, exploration and production company with gas operations focused in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming. Natural Gas Futures are down 2.35% to 7.805 according to Bloomberg. UPL overall option implied volatility of 39 is above its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Readers of this space know that one argument forwarded here is that in the era of elevated energy prices, oil and natural gas companies are likely to remain promising plays for the foreseeable future, barring the discovery of a cheap, widely available, alternative energy. And among oil/natural gas companies, Ultra Petroleum is worth an evaluation.

Ultra Petroleum (AMEX: UPL) is in independent oil/natural gas company with core properties in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming

Analysts like UPL's proven reserves of 2.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent, modest cost structure, adequate-to-good pricing power and likely production increases. The latter stems from the start of operations at the Rocky Express Pipeline in 2008, among other efforts. Further, look for UPL to attract increased attention from investors as the value and benefits of natural gas rise amid continued high oil prices. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for UPL are $1.29/$2.37.