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Options Update: Yamana Gold calls active into analyst meeting and $1046 gold

Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) closed at $11.35. Gold is recently up .62% to $1046.10 according to Bloomberg. AUY is hosting an analyst meeting today. AUY October option implied volatility is at 59; January is at 61; verses its 26-week average of 61, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (NYSE: DUG) closed at $14.25. DUG corresponds to twice the inverse of the performance of the Dow Jones Oil & Gas Index. WTI Crude Futures are recently up .38% to $71.15 according to Bloomberg. DUG October option implied volatility is at 51; November is at 59; below its 26-week average of 65, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Playing oil with the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Adam Warner:

Smarter minds than yours truly have noted that the oil ETF United States Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) is not the best bullish play on crude here. My understanding of the product is that USO owns futures, and must roll each cycle. And right now oil is in deep contango, which always sounds pornographic but actually just refers to the fact that there's a particularly steep and upward sloped curve in the futures as you go out in time.

I'll take their word for the contango part, but I'm not entirely sure why that necessarily will knock down USO. They'll roll when they roll, and even if the spread is wide, won't it then just depend on what happens in the next month AFTER the roll? I'm thinking out loud here, so if anyone has something enlightening to add on this topic, I am all ears.

I sold and am selling more Nov. puts anyway, so it should not matter a great deal from my standpoint. And I'm not sure I really have a great alternative if I want to do something bullish in oil options.

I don't trade futures or futures options, and as far as pure oil there's Super Double Ultra Octane Special (AMEX: DBO), which does not have liquid options.

There's also Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX: DIG) and UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX: DUG), but those track energy stocks.

SmartMoney suggestions to avoid the pitfalls of falling oil prices

With the soaring oil prices, oil bulls have been benefiting from nice gains lately but there are some pessimistic signs that this may be about to change. The Fed's comments related to inflation stirred some worries among investors that interest rates could be lifted soon. A boost in interest rates will immediately lead to a stronger dollar, and could (and should) result in a sell off in crude.

Talking about this circumstance, SmartMoney is thinking about the best way to protect ourselves against losing money. As a first step,
SmartMoney suggests that we reduce commodities and increase our allocation in stocks. To back up this idea, the article cites Simeon Hyman, equity strategist of the portfolio advisory group at Lehman Brothers' private investment management unit, who said the company is currently lighter on commodities and "fully invested" in stocks.

David Reilly, director of portfolio strategies at Rydex Investments, is taking into account the possibility of investing in Japan, which "is the most oil-dependent of all major economies. Reilly cites companies such as Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM) and Canon (NYSE: CAJ) which could benefit from investors' attention due to declines in crude oil prices.

Continue reading SmartMoney suggestions to avoid the pitfalls of falling oil prices

Symbol Lookup
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DJIA+29.2510,276.22
NASDAQ+11.462,162.54
S&P 500+3.631,096.64

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 12:17 PM

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