There's always good news, if you're willing to look hard for it. So, even though consumer sentiment dropped as unemployment rose, you can find the seeds of economic recovery in some of the U.S. import and export data reported recently.

Consumer sentiment fell early this month, largely because of the grim outlook for the job market. Consumers don't see a recovery coming anytime soon, with economists saying that unemployment has yet to peak despite having hit 10.2% already. Hopes edged higher in September when imports were seen to be on the rise, but sentiment starts and ends with jobs.

A small ray of light was visible on the unemployment front. Government data showed that initial claims for unemployment fell to 502,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis. The prior weeek's reading was 514,000. Analysts had expected this week's number to be about 512,000.

The four-week moving average decreased to 519,000, the lowest since a matching level on November 29, 2008

The number of persons collecting long term unemployment benefits also fell to 5.631 million, but this number is meaningless because it doesn't count those who have exhausted their benefits.

Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new 2009 high, trading above 10,225. GDP growth came in at 3.5% for the third quarter.

However, what we are experiencing is a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. Last Friday, the Labor Department reported that unemployment is now above 10%. Consumer spending for September fell .5%, the biggest drop since December 2008.

Retail hiring for the holiday shopping season was expected to be slow, and now we have the data to confirm it. According to data from Bureau of Labor Statistics (supplied to BloggingStocks by Challenger, Gray & Christmas), the retail sector added only 63,500 jobs in October -- in data that appropriately was not seasonally adjusted.

This is only slightly better than the 59,100 retail jobs added in October 2008. In the fourth quarter of last year, retail employment increased by a mere 384,300 jobs, with the retail industry turning in its worst holiday shopping season employment stats since 1989 (when it added 380,500 workers).

Is a Fed rate tightening up ahead any time soon? Despite concern that low, real, short-term interest rates are hurting the dollar. Don't count on it.

First, the U.S. Federal Reserve wants to encourage banks to lend -- for auto purchases, and especially for business loans -- and nothing prompts banks to lend, even in tighter capital times, like low-interest-rate or zero-interest-rate money.

Work smarter not harder. Do more with less. Increase your output. Become more productive.

You've heard all this before, right? What it all means is that layoffs are coming, and the survivors are going to have to take on a hell of a lot more work, with no increase in support, resources or compensation. As cuts come, the survivors fight to survive, and succeeding means that a new benchmark is set. If you can survive without the help you used to have, it's easier to defer hiring for a while.

Is this bad news for the recovery? The Labor Department reported that the U.S. unemployment rate jumped to 10.2% in October, pushing the rate atop the 10% mark for the first time in 26 years. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 190,000 in October, bringing the total number of jobs sacrificed to the recession to 7.3 million. October was the 22nd straight month that saw payrolls decline. According to MarketWatch, expectations were for an unemployment rate of 10% and 150,000 jobs lost.

Yesterday, I took a look at the weekly jobless claims, suggesting that we could see a substantial drop today if this morning's jobs report came in worse than expected. The report was worse, now let's see if yesterday's "good news" and rally is going to give way to a slump like last Friday.

Ten months ago again, newly laid-off unemployment claims fell to their lowest level in close to a year, suggesting that the job market may be showing signs of life. It feels like today's situation is the same.

Of course, declining claims isn't the same as new hiring, but at least it suggests that the bleeding is slowing down. The new unemployment rate is due to be published in a few minutes, and economists expect the rate to rise to 9.9%, a hair over September's 9.8%.

The National Bankruptcy Research Center reported that there were 135,914 bankruptcies in October, up 9%. One third of the bankruptcies were filed under Chapter 13. Chapter 13 requires that the court set up a five year repayment plan for debts owed.

In addition business bankruptcies were up 7% for the same period.The forecast is for 1.4 million bankruptcies in 2009, the highest since 2005. In that year Congress revamped the bankruptcy laws to make it more difficult to wipe out all of a person's debts. There was a rush of filings in the months just before the new law was enacted.

Sorry to say that the jobs report for October is bleak. According to ADP National Employment, 203,000 jobs were lost.

Since the recession started, U.S. job losses have risen from 7.6 million to 15 million.

Here are the numbers by sectors:

We have a human disaster of enormous proportions. We have 15 million persons unemployed. Thousands are on the brink of losing their homes. As of this December, 1.7 million unemployed will exhaust their benefits. They may be homeless at this holiday time. Some 400,000 persons exhausted their benefits in the month of October.

Now, as reported in BusinessWeek, one lone economist, Katerina Alexandraki, is asking Wall Streeters to give their bonuses to the homeless and unemployed. She has set up a website, Bonus for Homes, and started a campaign to distribute the monies to low-income earners and the unemployed.

Now that the U.S. economy is growing -- GDP grew at a 3.5% annualized rate in Q3, according to U.S. Commerce Department data, one key question for investors large and small is: Is the U.S. economic expansion sustainable?

Investors can immerse themselves in data on consumer spending, retail sales, new home sales, auto sales, and factory output etc., and all of those provide clues, no question. But if you're time-pressed and you want one metric to gauge the U.S. economy's likely health 6-9 months from now, monitor: monthly non-farm payrolls, as tallied by the U.S. Labor Department. I.E., how many jobs the U.S. economy lost or created in the previous month.

When you spend $787 billion, there's a lot of pressure to show results. So, there's no surprise that success is being proclaimed across the country. States are saying that they've used the federal stimulus package money to create or save more than 388,000 jobs this year. Teachers, construction workers and other professions have realized the upside of stimulus cash according to reports from 33 states and Puerto Rico, with the remainder of the results being released on Friday.

Of course, the numbers "should be taken with a grain of salt," says Ethan Pollack of the Economic Policy Institute. The states were tasked to count the jobs created or protected, but the results have been of dubious accuracy. This doesn't mean the stats can't provide fodder to people on both sides of the aisle.

Columbia Business School's Frank Lichtenberg says the data shows a solid economic impact, and the Obama administration's Council of Economic Advisors believes the stimulus spending has taken care of between 600,000 and 1.1 million jobs.

And, there are those who disagree.

There is no question that the recession took its tool on Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT). The company saw its stock plummet from mid 2008 through March of this year. Along the way the company was forced to layoff employees to help lower costs, but it announced today that it would be rehiring 550 of its laid off workers.

Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens announced the news and stated that the company was pleased that "signs of recovery in the global economy" is allowing it to bring back some employees.

Jobs are ready to make a comeback!

As usual, it all comes back to the consumer. Consumer demand increased, and spending follows demand, of course, which provides the fuel necessary for economic growth. When enough of this fuel is expended, we'll finally see an increase in jobs -- and relief from what is soon to be double-digit unemployment.

For the first time since the start of the recession, more companies are planning to add positions rather than cut them in the next six months.