In the first half of 2008, the S&P 500 fell 12%. June's stock market was the worst since 1930. So are stocks now a screaming buy or are they poised to plunge further? Nobody knows. But my guess is that stocks will move based on how well they perform compared with expectations. And the risk of negative surprises in most industries exceeds the chance of positive ones. So stocks will probably keep falling.

Here's a quick review of six negatives:

• Oil prices. With oil at $142, up 492% since January 2001, consumers are paying about $4.10 a gallon for gas and companies that use oil are getting squeezed while trying to raise prices. An attack on Iran, a big oil supplier, looms on the horizon. This and other geopolitical uncertainties could put further pressure on oil.
• Housing. Three million people are expected to face foreclosure on their homes. And prices have dropped 15%. Since people were using home equity to finance their purchasing, their negative equity is sucking the wind out of the economy.

Continue reading Second half looks dark

Second half looks dark originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 02 Jul 2008 09:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

As Joe Lazzaro posted earlier, the unemployment rate rose to 5.5% last month. And for the fifth straight month, payrolls fell.

Specifically, in May employers shed 49,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose significantly from the April rate of 5% -- far higher than economists had expected. The Wall Street Journal reports that Wall Street economists had expected a 60,000 decline in payrolls last month and only a 5.1% unemployment rate

What's also of concern is that workers' income shrank in relation to booming inflation. Although workers' wages grew nominally at 0.3% in May to $604.58 a week, and for the 12-month period posted a 3.4% gain, inflation is running at 4% officially. So on an inflation-adjusted basis, workers' wages are dropping.

With gasoline prices up 100% in the last year, a worker who fills up a 20 gallon tank twice a week now pays $160 -- 26% of that paycheck -- compared to 13% last year. And if that worker gets fired, it will be awfully expensive to drive around looking for a job.

With 70% of GDP growth coming from those workers and gasoline prices topping $4 a gallon, those deficit enhancing rescue checks from the government don't seem to be doing their job all that well. What will the government cook up next?

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Unemployment rate spikes to 5.5% as income tumbles originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 06 Jun 2008 10:22:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.