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Quick opinions on some quarterly earnings: AXP, MRK, MCD, NYT, UP ...

A lot of earnings reports were issued last week. The market was busy sorting them all out. I'm going to take a fast look at several of the issuing companies.

American Express (NYSE: AXP): Don't leave home without it. Good advice for the card, perhaps, but what about the company? Should your portfolio leave home and forget this stock? I'd say so. It's not that American Express lost the earnings game. On the contrary, Bloomberg reported a beat. American Express earned 44 cents per share from continuing operations, adjusted. This was six pennies ahead of forecasts. Okay, I applaud such performance. And shares are way off the single-digit 52-week low. Thing is, I'm in love with another card business. Visa (NYSE: V). As I've stated before, I enjoy the beauty of Visa's lower-risk model. It doesn't have to put up with loan risk. Yes, the situation at American Express might be improving, but I'm not going to buy this one.

Continue reading Quick opinions on some quarterly earnings: AXP, MRK, MCD, NYT, UP ...

CSX experiences a drop in Q3 income, but are better times ahead?

CSX (NYSE: CSX), a railway entity similar to companies such as Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (NYSE: BNI), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC), and Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), saw a nice bid during Tuesday's after-hours session. The market enjoyed CSX's Q3 earnings report so much it sent shares of the company higher by 2.6%.

What was so good about the data? According to TheStreet.com, CSX made 74 cents per share from continuing operations. The analyst community was counting on 71 cents per share. Perhaps more importantly, management seemed pretty upbeat on the state of the economy. Like a lot of other pundits, CEO Michael Ward thinks that the recession will eventually start to wane, and that we may have already experienced the bottom of the cycle.

Continue reading CSX experiences a drop in Q3 income, but are better times ahead?

CSX: Buy now, or wait for a better price?

CSX (NYSE: CSX), a railway company whose peers include Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI), Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) and Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC), reported earnings for the second quarter on Monday after the bell. Net sales declined 25%, and earnings from continuing operations declined 24% to 72 cents per share.

Declines are never nice, but for a company like CSX, it's only to be expected. The recession continues to have an impact on operations. Management said that volumes decreased; it also mentioned how CSX is doing its best to run as efficiently as possible to combat the dropping top line. Maybe it's working out, because according to Reuters, the company beat Wall Street estimates by 10 cents.

Continue reading CSX: Buy now, or wait for a better price?

CSX's earnings engine was powerful in Q1

CSX (NYSE: CSX), a railway company whose colleagues include Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) and Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), issued its Q1 report on Tuesday after the bell. As one might imagine, there was a drop in both sales and net income. The top line declined by 17%. The bottom line, on an adjusted basis (taking into account an item from last year's similar quarter), dropped 23% to $0.62 per share.

The economy is still taking its toll, obviously. Volumes were down during the quarter. However, the market sometimes cares about only one thing: beating expectations. CSX actually beat the analyst expectations of $0.51 per share. This significant difference led traders to push shares of CSX higher by 6.5% during Tuesday's after-hours session.

Continue reading CSX's earnings engine was powerful in Q1

CSX beats expectations, but I'd be careful about buying it

CSX (NYSE: CSX), a transportation company whose competitors include Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC), and Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), reported earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday. The results weren't bad, driven in part by a drop in energy costs and an effort to keep costs under control.

Revenues increased 18%, approaching $3 billion. Earnings per share from continuing operations skyrocketed 40% to $0.94. As management pointed out, distributors are exploiting railways to the advantage of their supply chains. This is cool for shareholders of CSX, who obviously are hoping their company can successfully navigate the tough economic landscape that we're all trying to find maps for. And if oil prices continue to fall, then CSX may find it easier to manage its operations.

And there's another positive. According to this source, CSX beat analyst expectations by a penny. Unfortunately, according to that same source, management believes that it will hit the lower end of the spectrum in terms of its previous guidance. CSX is looking to earn between $3.65 and $3.75 per share for the fiscal year.

Taking everything together, I'm not sure I'd want to enter CSX at this time. It is well off the 52-week high, but it's not exactly near the 52-week low, either. Even though the energy picture might be moderating for the company, and even though its business does offer a compelling transportation service, I think a macro slowdown might send shares back toward the low. And according to this source, freight volume declined by over 2%. Problems in the automotive industry are negatively affecting CSX. Heck, problems in many industries will be with us for a while. CSX will see its operations pressured. And, again, that tells me that I'd have to see a big drop in the stock to find it attractive at this point.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Union Pacific (UNP): 'Railroad renaissance'

"Railroads are a play on three big secular themes: the drive for increased energy efficiency, growth in coal and the agriculture boom," says Elliott Gue, a energy sector expert who has just returned from Japan where he was covering the G8 Summit.

Meanwhile, in his The Energy Srategist, he states, "Railroads are now among the most fuel-efficient forms of freight transport available." Here, he offers a bullish review of Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP).

"My long-held thesis on the group has been that the railroads are no longer totally dependent on the US economy for their growth.

"It's no longer appropriate to look at this sector as viciously economy sensitive. The traditional relationship between the broader market and the rails has been breaking down for several years, but this trend appears to be accelerating.

"In 2007, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR), the average railroad moved a ton of freight a distance of 436 miles on a single gallon of diesel fuel. That makes freight trains roughly three to four times more fuel efficient than trucks.

"Union Pacific is the largest railroad in the US and has long been one of my favorites. The company's network is nearly 33,000 miles long and is concentrated in the West and Midwest. It also offers a convenient example of the bullish forces at work for the rails, particularly in the coal and agriculture industries.

Continue reading Union Pacific (UNP): 'Railroad renaissance'

Option update 11-27-07: Railroads' volatility higher on growth concerns

Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP), a leading transportation company, closed at $120.92. UNP overall option implied volatility of 33 is above its 26-week average of 29 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI), an operator of 32,000 railroad route miles, closed at $80.77. BNI overall option implied volatility of 34 is above its 26-week average of 29 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Canadian National (NYSE: CNI) closed at $46.36. CNI overall option implied volatility of 33 is above its 26-week average of 26 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Daily Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Newspaper wrap-up: Kohl's to announce partnership with Fila

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:
  • News Corp's (NYSE: NWS.A) Rupert Murdoch said the company plans to replace nearly one million paid subscribers of the online Wall Street Journal with 10-15 million "who wouldn't pay a thing." Murdoch's long-term plan is to penetrate developing markets, The Australian reported.

Serious Money: The page on Buffett IV: Durable Competitve Advantage

Given investors anxiousness about the economy and hearing more gloom and doom than I think is warranted, I thought I would get back to basics with "my pal" Warren, and add to the series I started several months ago. I decided to write the series after receiving encouragement from friends and associates that read With Warren Buffett by my side ....

Today, I am writing about the concept of Durable Competitive Advantage, which is the ability to get ahead and stay ahead with a high level of certainty. It is also referred to as Sustainable Competitive Advantage.

To achieve a Durable Competitive Advantage, several factors have to be present. One is a big moat (Buffett expression) surrounding the enterprise. This usually means businesses that sell commodities where price is the primary factor in determining opportunity, have no moat as price takers. Their profit margins are not easily defendable. Another factor is barrier to entry. How easy would it be for someone to enter the same business and compete? The T-shirt business is a good example, of something without a Durable Competitive Advantage. Anyone could enter this business in one day, and they do. So unless the business has some unique concept, it does not have the promise of relatively predictable and sustainable profit margins in the future.

Continue reading Serious Money: The page on Buffett IV: Durable Competitve Advantage

Warren Buffett rides the rails

When Warren Buffett buys, people listen.

And right now Buffett, head of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) is into Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) in a big way. According to information filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Buffett has upped his stake in BNI to 14.8%.

In BNI, Buffett is hooking up with a long-term, secular trend -- the revival and expansion of the nation's railroads. Aided by strong demand for commodities in the U.S. and abroad, and by an increase in transportation services, railroad companies are thriving. BNI, and Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP), and CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) have all benefited from solid demand for their services in the U.S. and robust growth in emerging market economies (particularly China, India and South America).

Continue reading Warren Buffett rides the rails

Buffett continues his ride on the rails

It's a big deal whenever Warren Buffett so much as sneezes, and this morning was no different. Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.A) decision to boost its stake in Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) made the expected splash, and up went Burlington's stock 3%.

Back in April, Berkshire disclosed an 11% stake in Burlington, and then in May it announced investments in two other railroads: Norfolk Southern Corp (NYSE: NSC) and Union Pacific Corp (NYSE: UNP). Buffett clearly sees value in riding the railroads.

Then today came Berkshire's disclose that it had raised its stake from August 3 through August 7 to 11.5% from 11% -- which, while not exactly earth shaking, is a strong indicator that Buffett sees the recent price weakness enveloping the market as a buying opportunity. Usually when the "oracle" Mr. Buffett sees something, it is worth paying attention.

Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn ride the rails

Large investors such as Warren Buffett and Carl Icahn, as well as hedge funds, have invested more than $8 billion in railroad stocks, calculating that strong business conditions for the rails will continue. But are they on the mark or late to the railroad party?

After a solid performance in 2006, Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI), Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC), are part of a sector that has gained 20% this year, despite a modest decline in traffic volumes (about 4%), to date.

The modest traffic dip - attributable primarily to the sluggish conditions in certain U.S. economic sectors - is not insignificant, analysts say. Still there are several long-term secular trends that suggest that the rail's recent strong run is far from over.

First, U.S. imports/exports remain strong: rails play a large role in transporting goods from and to coastal ports. Energy costs are driving part of this traffic increase: as diesel and gasoline prices rise, rail transport becomes a better transport value for many businesses/customers.

Second, commodity demand -- particularly in emerging-market and recently-developed countries -- is strong, and is expected to remain solid in 2007 and 2008, as the global economy continues to expand at a greater than 4% rate.

Further, the major U.S. rails are the survivors -- winners, really -- of a sector that scaled down and decreased the number of providers in the 1970s and 1980s. Translation: the rails
have a pricing power advantage with regard to many contracts and clients.

In Thursday afternoon trading, Burlington Northern gained 74 cents to $87.87, Union Pacific rose $1.06 to $118.81, and Norfolk Southern climbed 74 cents to $55.31.

To be sure, if the U.S. economy dips into a recession, or if the global economy slows dramatically, the investments by Buffett, Icahn, etc., would then look like riskier ventures, but so long as the secular trends remain in place, their calculation appears to be prudent, to say the least.

Analyst initiations 5-18-07: BNI, CSX, ITT, NSC and UNP

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Select railroads were popular initiations today:
  • Morgan Keegan started shares of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp (NYSE: BNI) with an Outperform rating and believes the stock should trade at a premium to Class 1 railroad peers, as the company consistently ranks above its peers in terms of operating ratio and return on invested capital.
  • Morgan Keegan believes Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) de Mexico provides KSU a tremendous growth opportunity, starting shares with an Outperform rating.
  • Morgan Keegan also believes Norfolk Southern Corp (NYSE: NSC) is undervalued, despite having some of the best operating metrics in the industry, initiating shares with an Outperform rating.
  • Union Pacific Corp (NYSE: UNP) was started with an Outperform rating as Morgan Keegan believes earnings estimates and management guidance may be conservative.
  • Finally, CSX Corp (NYSE: CSX) was initiated with a Market Perform rating at Morgan Keegan as the firm believes there is more risk to the current share price than the potential upside...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst initiations 5-08-07: AHM, CSX, MA, UNP and SKS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: American Home Mortgage Investment Corp (AHM), MasterCard Inc (MA) and the selective railroad companies were today's more notable initiations:
  • JMP Securities started American Home Mortgage (NYSE: AHM) with a Market Perform frating citing the challenging mortgage market.
  • UBS started MasterCard (NYSE: MA) with a Buy and doesn't believe margin upside is fully reflected in the stock's valuation.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Saks Inc (NYSE: SKS) was started at Bear Stearns with a Peer Perform rating.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst initiations 1-23-07: Calyon's been working on the Railroads

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Railroad Sector and Obagi Medical (OMPI) were today's most notable initiations:
  • Calyon Securities initiated coverage on the following stocks, all with Neutral ratings, including Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp (NYSE: BNI), Canadian National Railway Co (NYSE: CNI), Canadian Pacific Ltd (NYSE: CP), CSX Corp (NYSE: CSX), Norfolk Southern Corp (NYSE: NSC).and Union Pacific Corp (NYSE: UNP).
  • Obagi Medical (NASDAQ: OMPI) was initiated by Baird with an Outperform rating and $13 target; CIBC started the specialty pharmaceutical company with a Sector Outperformer rating and $14 target, saying the company is a pure play in the rapidly-growing aesthetics market and has expectations that the company's growth will accelerate due to the rise in physician-dispensed products.

OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • MasterCard Inc (NYSE: MA) was initiated with a Neutral rating at Merrill Lynch.
  • Xoma Ltd (NASDAQ: XOMA) was initiated with a Market Outperform rating at Rodman & Renshaw. The firm said XOMA's antibody technology licenses and manufacturing provide an important source of consistent and growing commercial revenues. Additionally, the broker said Raptiva is becoming a more meaningful contributor.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-17.2410,433.71
NASDAQ-6.832,169.18
S&P 500-0.591,105.65

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 10:41 PM

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