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Serious Money: What to do with $25,000

Money market accounts and certificates of deposit are safe, but they provide very little return on your investment. This fact, and the invigorated stock market, provoked one of my bankers, Dobrinka, at the local Santa Monica Wells Fargo branch, to ask for advice on how I would invest $25,000 if I was just starting out.

This is a common question although the starting point in terms of cash varies. It certainly makes a difference how old the person is, their general knowledge about investing and finance, and the particulars of their financial statement.

Here is what I suggested sticking to regular themes I have written about before and broadly speaking would be a conservative approach emphasizing safety, diversity, liquidity, dividends and the potential for growth far exceeding cash in the mattress or in a money market account. I also think that it is important for beginners to educate themselves so my suggestions include an educational aspect.

Continue reading Serious Money: What to do with $25,000

Chasing Value: Favorite trades -- UPS

For those of you who are able to trade options, I have been writing more and more about naked puts, "selling to open" stock options that I have been doing all year with great returns due to an overabundance of fear.

Yesterday I reviewed one example in Chasing Value: GE -- maybe not eating out of trash cans after all, and today I review some of my favorite ways to make money and improve my portfolio.

Let me start with United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS), a company with a great balance sheet, strong management, and trading 29% off its 52-week high, about where I sold it last year. I bought it earlier this year at the bargain basement price of $44, and now wished I had bought more.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Favorite trades -- UPS

Serious Money: Keep your eyes on UPS and FDX

Most astute market watchers have known for a long time that the package delivery companies Federal Express (NYSE: FDX) and United Parcel (NYSE: UPS) are good barometers for the overall economy. When business slows down or speeds up they feel it immediately as the package count shrinks and rises.

Both stocks have lost ground the past two days with the overall market and possibly because of the slowly rising oil prices now back up to $60 a barrel.


Continue reading Serious Money: Keep your eyes on UPS and FDX

Serious Money: Still running naked on Wall Street

Over the past few weeks the market has been playing a favorable tune but that does not mean that all bad news and negativity have been wrung out of it. There is plenty of fear and suspicion creating volatility.

In many cases this past quarter I have been doing naked puts, in stocks I would be happy to own anyway. I first mentioned this opportunity about seven week ago in Investor fear puts me 'naked' on Wall Street. The actual option position is a "sell to open" put where you get paid today, to pledge to buy something at a later date. These options are available at different strike prices and monthly intervals depending on the company stock.

Continue reading Serious Money: Still running naked on Wall Street

Chasing Value: No layoffs at United Parcel

In a recent post Chasing Value: United Parcel -- forgotten blue chip I praised United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) and included a comment about something my UPS carrier had said to me about the company laying off 10% of the local carriers.

While receiving a positive response for the post from Mr. Michael French of UPS, he went on to correct me and wrote "I wanted to make sure that you are aware that no layoffs have been announced, and that makes the statement in your blog about a layoff of 10 percent of our drivers inaccurate."

I questioned my carrier in more detail and he did in fact confirm that there was no formal layoff announced, only that there were discussions locally about cutting back the forces and he was cavalier in saying it might be as much as 10%. Given the opportunity to recant he speculated the layoffs might be 3% to 4% and the exact number has not been determined.

Continue reading Chasing Value: No layoffs at United Parcel

Serious Money: How safe were BRK, BUD, PG, SO, & UPS?

The stock market was down yesterday and it is down again today. Bearish sentiment is roaming through Wall Street right now, so I thought I would look back on another occasion when the market was going through similar turmoil and I wrote about the following eight stocks, which I thought would be "safe havens" in such a storm.

Six of the eight did well and two did not, and of course one of those two was a disaster. Among the losers, I do not think anyone is fretting about UPS, which is still one of the few triple-A rated companies along with Berkshire Hathaway. It has been well reported that the slowing economy and higher fuel prices have been the major culprits affecting UPS's earnings. In the case of WaMu, it's demise has also been well reported, but at the time I recommended it WaMu had a stellar reputation of growth and high yield for over two decades. There is no hiding, it turned out to be a lousy pick and an ANTI-SAFE Haven

NOT SAFE:

United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) closed Monday at $65.30 down from $78.40; a 16.71% loss

Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) closed Monday at $4.21 down from $45.50; a 98% loss.

Fortunately the remaining six picks have done very, very well. If you had bought the pool, the average gain over the last two years would have been 7.14%. Adding the dividends over the two years would have raised this to 13.14%.

Continue reading Serious Money: How safe were BRK, BUD, PG, SO, & UPS?

Analyst upgrades 8-23-07: CFC, TOL, TSN and UPS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Countrywide Financial (CFC), Toll Brothers (TOL), United Parcel Service (UPS) and OSI Pharma (OSIP) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Both Friedman Billings and Wachovia upgraded Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) to Market Perform from Underperform following the $2 billion investment by the Bank of America (BAC).
  • JMP Securities upgraded Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) to Market Perform from Underperform and believes the worst news on housing is reflected and that fears over a disappearing jumbo loan market are overblown.
  • Wachovia raised OSI Pharma (NASDAQ: OSIP) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Roth Capital upgraded IMAX Corp (NASDAQ: IMAX) to Buy from Hold.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst upgrades 7-25-07: AMZN, CAKE, CFC, EXPE and UPS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Countrywide Financial (CFC), Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN), Manhattan Associates (MANH), Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI) and Amazon.com (AMZN) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Brandywine Realty Trust (NYSE: BDN) was upgraded at Wachovia to Market Perform from Underperform based on pipeline progress and valuation.
  • JP Morgan upgraded Manhattan Associates (NASDAQ: MANH) to Neutral from Underweight following better-than-expected Q2 results.
  • Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SPPI) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Brean Murry, expecting shares to remain stable into the spected Phase III initiation with Ozarelix coming in Q4.
  • Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) was upgraded by a host of companies following the strong quarter and margin growth, including JP Morgan, which upgraded shares to Neutral from Underperform. Bear Stearns upgraded shares to Peer Perform from Underperform, Lehman upgraded shares to Equal Weight from Underweight and Credit Suisse upgraded shares to Outperform from Neutral...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Goldman added AT&T (NYSE: T) to its Conviction Buy List.
  • Matrix USA upgraded Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) to Hold from Sell.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

DHL wins The Great Package Race of 2007, not FedEx or UPS

In my Battle of the Brands: UPS vs. FedEx, many people commented on how one company handled remote locations better than the other. If you think Avoca, Minnesota is a "remote location" check out this study.

Each year, students at the Supply Chain & Logistics Institute at Georgia Tech in Atlanta, GA send packages to locations around the world through different parcel carriers and observe the results. This year, the students chose United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS), FedEx Corp (NYSE: FDX) and Deutsche Post's DHL to deliver five packages to five of the most remote locations on globe:
  • Apia, the only city on Upulu, one of the islands of Samoa. Upulu lacks something important for parcel carriers - street addresses.
  • Florianopolis, an island off the Brazil near Uraguay, which is considered a "remote area" by carriers.

Continue reading DHL wins The Great Package Race of 2007, not FedEx or UPS

Problems at UPS - and it's only Monday

Officials at the Platinum Shield Association, whose members own and operate United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) franchises under the Mail Boxes Etc. banner, said that UPS puts higher shipping costs on its franchisees because UPS manipulates the dimensional weight system used to calculate package size and weight for shipping.

Joel Wightman, a franchisee in New York quoted a recent memo the UPS Store Area Franchise Developer sent to UPS franchises, which said that UPS is altering their shipping weights of packages.

Mr. Wightman warned shippers by saying, " "If you as a franchisee are being hit with substantial UPS billing adjustments for restated dimensions of your store's shipments, and you are convinced that your original dimensions are accurate ... Look carefully at your bill to see if UPS changes the dimensions of these boxes and increases the billed amount based upon their laser scanning based audit."

Mr. Wightman added that his organization, the Platinum Shield Association wants Federal and state government agencies to intervene to make sure shipping consumers are being charged a fair and accurate price.

The Platinum Shield Organization filed its lawsuit against UPS in 2003 and plans to attend the UPS shareholder meeting in Wilmington, Delaware on May 10th.

Stay tuned.

Analyst upgrades 2-15-07: JetBlue takes off into the skies

MOST NOTEWORTHY: JetBlue Airways Corp (JBLU), Nationwide Financial (NFS) and Deere & Co (DE) were today's notable upgrades:
  • Goldman Sachs upgraded JetBlue Airways Corp (NASDAQ: JBLU) to Buy from Neutral with a $16 target and added shares to their America's Buy List, as they believe management initiatives should bring improved margins.
  • Nationwide Financial Services Inc (NYSE: NFS) was upgraded to Peer Perform from Underperform at Bear Stearns.
  • Deere (DE) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Longbow.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • United Parcel Service Inc (NYSE: UPS) was added to Citigroup's Recommended List based on valuation.
  • Morgan Stanley upgraded Baidu.com Inc ADS (NASDAQ: BIDU) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
  • Bear Stearns upgraded Office Depot Inc (NYSE: ODP) to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $43 target based on valuation and the potential upside to lowered guidance.
  • AG Edwards upgraded American Eagle Outfitters inc (NASDAQ: AEOS) to Buy from Hold with a $41 target on valuation.
  • Oppenheimer upgraded Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) to Buy from Neutral with a $50 target citing the impact of MediaFlo mobile TV services, GSM Association 3G initiatives, and WDCMA deployment in the U.S. at AT&T/Cingular (NYSE: T).
  • BB&T upgraded Equity Inns Inc (NYSE: ENN) to Buy from Hold following the company's fourth-quarter results.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst upgrades 2-09-07: UPS delivers, Ford & GM revs their engines

MOST NOTEWORTHY: United Parcel Service Inc (UPS), Ford Motors (F), General Motors Corp (GM) and The Walt Disney Co (DIS) were today's notable upgrades:
  • Baird upgraded United Parcel Service Inc (NYSE: UPS) to Outperform from Neutral with an $86 target following the increased dividend and buyback to reflect valuation.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded both Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F) and General Motors Corp (NYSE: GM) to Buy from Hold based on optimism the Big Three will seek an agreement with the United Auto Workers on health care. The firm believes such an agreement would improve the companies' flexibility in restructuring as well as profitability.
  • The Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS) was upgraded to Buy from Hold on positive fundamental trends at Matrix USA.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Quest Communications Int'l Inc (NYSE: Q) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Stifel, as they believe the company's better-than-expected 2007 guidance and share buyback will create a near-term floor on the stock.
  • Citigroup upgraded DaimlerChrysler AG (NYSE: DCX) to Buy from Hold as they believe the company's optimization plan will prove successful.
  • UAL Corp (NASDAQ: UAUA) was added to Goldman Sachs America's Conviction Buy List with a $55 target.
  • JP Morgan upgraded the Semiconductor Sector to Bullish from Cautious as they believe utilization rates will bottom in the first quarter. Deutsche Bank also upgraded the Semiconductors to Overweight from Neutral as they believe fundamentals will bottom in the second-quarter and that valuations are attractive.
  • Bear Stearns upgraded GlaxoSmithKline plc ADR (NYSE: GSK) to Peer Perform from Underperform to reflect the better-than-expected 2007 outlook.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst upgrades 2-01-07: Dell upgraded to Buy at JP Morgan

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Dell Inc (DELL) and United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) were today's notable upgrades:
  • Merrill Lynch upgraded Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) to Buy from Neutral as they see Michael Dell's return to CEO signaling a new level of commitment by the Board for a serious change and sentiment is unlikely to get worse. JP Morgan upgraded Dell to Neutral from Underweight as they see limited downside risk with Michael Dell at the helm.
  • Merrill Lynch also upgraded United Parcel Service (NASDAQ: UPS) to Neutral from Sell, citing valuation.

OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Prudential upgraded Eli Lilly & Co (NYSE: LLY) to Overweight from Neural citing valuation and expectations for 10% earnings growth over the next four years.
  • Lehman Brothers upgraded Siemens AG ADS (NYSE: SI) to Overweight from Underweight.
  • Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (NASDAQ: ODFL) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens. The firm expects earnings momentum to accelerate in the second-half of 2007.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-0.4510,226.49
NASDAQ-6.252,147.81
S&P 500-1.311,091.77

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 02:24 PM

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