Amid the global recession there has been one sign of economic growth, albeit retroactive growth.

China has revised its estimate for 2007 GDP growth to 13% from the previously-released 11.9%, the Associated Press reports. With the revision China's 2007 GDP totaled $3.5 trillion, passing Germany's $3.3 trillion for third place, globally. (The United States is first, followed by Japan. And I should note that Germany is part of the European Union, and if the E.U. were ranked collectively, it would be the largest economy in the world, followed by the United States, Japan, then China.)

Economist David H. Wang, a China expert, said it's not unusual to see a large change in an emerging market nation's GDP estimate given the frenetic nature of a developing economy's expansion.

"Developing markets are characterized by overbuilding, excesses, inflation, and isolated shortages, and this has been the case in China. We know that growth had been strong up until the financial crisis. My reading now is that China's GDP is currently growing at a 7-8.5% annualized rate," Wang said. "Like the rest of the world, there's been a pronounced slowdown in China, but that doesn't blot out the impressive growth registered from 2003 to 2007."

The manager of world's largest bond fund is taking a positive stance regarding market confidence following U.S. and European efforts to stabilize the global financial system.

PIMCO chief investment officer Bill Gross said Friday finance minister and central bank action worldwide should soon loosen-up credit and bond markets.

"We're talking weeks here," Gross said in an interview with Bloomberg News.

Gross' Total Return Fund has yielded 4.4% annually over the past five years, besting 99% of its peers in the government / corporate bond category, as of October 16, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. California-based PIMCO has $840 billion under management.

Gross: more rate cuts needed

Gross has also called on the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark interest rate to 1% from the current 1.5%, arguing that asset deflation has taken hold and that the threat of headline inflation is gone, Reuters reported.

The world major economies are using a combination of fiscal and monetary policy actions to end a liquidity crisis that threatens to severely damage economies worldwide by constraining commercial operations.

The financial crisis that's constrained credit around the world will slow the global economy considerably and quickly, the International Monetary Fund announced in its October 2008 report.

The IMF now expects global GDP growth to slow to 3.0% in 2009, down from 3.9% forecast in its July 2008 report.

Moreover, economists note it's important to highlight the differences in what constitutes a recession in the developing and developed worlds. Because emerging markets/ developing countries are capable of and require higher growth rates, a low GDP growth rate is roughly equivalent to a negative GDP growth rate in developed countries -- i.e. equivalent to a recession. The average of the two means the global economy can be considered to be in recession when global GDP falls below 3.0%, certainly if it falls below 2.5%.

Worst global GDP growth since 2001-2003

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks the IMF's latest forecast points to a global recession, or the closest condition to it.

"It is a somber report, no question. Many developed nations will now record close-to-negative or negative GDP growth for 2009. Add slowing emerging market growth and a credit market that will be in recovery mode for much of 2009 on to high commodity prices, and it's a formula for the worst global economic conditions since the 2001-2003 period," Wang said.

The IMF now expects the U.S. economy to record 1.6% GDP growth in 2008 and just 0.1% in 2009. IMF 2008/2009 GDP forecasts for other key economies are as follows: United Kingdom, 1.0% / -0.1%; Germany: 1.8% / NA; France, 0.8% / 0.2%; Japan, 0.7% / 0.5%; China, 9.7% / 9.3%; India, 7.9% / 6.9%; Brazil, 5.2% / 3.5%; and Mexico, 2.1% / 1.8%.

What's a telling sign of slowing global growth? Continually decreasing oil demand forecasts.

The International Energy Agency again lowered its global oil demand forecasts for 2008 and 2009 as high prices and reduced U.S. consumption lowered overall demand for crude, the organization announced Wednesday. It lowered its 2008 forecast by 100,000 barrels per day to 86.8 million barrels, and 2009 estimate by 140,000 barrels to 87.6 million barrels.

The IEA's announcement had little impact on oil prices early Wednesday as oil rose 60 cents to $104.43 per barrel. However, it should be noted that two bullish factors also affected prices Wednesday: an OPEC announcement of a commitment to existing production quotas with a pledge not to exceed them, as some cartel members have in the past; and Hurricane Ike in the Gulf of Mexico, which threatened to damage oil rigs and infrastructure as it approaches the Texas-area coastline, according to weather.com.

Oil's price surge takes a toll

Oil has declined about 30% since hitting a record high of $147.27 per barrel in July 12. Economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks Wednesday the dip in oil's price over the past two months is not nearly enough to blot-out the process-changing affect of oil's four-year price surge.

Just when there are signs that emerging market demand (and institutional investor frenzy) have eased in the oil markets, up pops an old friend: geopolitical risk.

Moreover, this time the old friend, 'Middle East Tensions,' brought along his long/lost cousin, 'Enboldened Russia.'

Russia's re-appearance on the international stage takes the form of a major power, not a geopolitical power capable of projecting force globally as during the Soviet era, but the gradation is minor as it relates to the oil market, so says economist Richard Felson.

"Russia has the capacity to create a remarkable amount of distress in the oil markets. It can use oil exports and natural gas as a lever against Europe and the world, and its territorial threats to Central Asia and Eastern Europe are also cause for legitimate concern," Felson said.

Oil fell $3.03 to $118.15 per barrel Friday at mid-day after Turkey restored oil flows through the Caspian Sea pipeline, Bloomberg News reported Friday. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline moves oil from Azerbaijan through George to Turkey's Mediterranean coast. Oil flows were stopped earlier this month after Russia invaded Georgia.

The other, major energy commodities also fell sharply Friday at mid-day on the Baku pipeline news. Unleaded gasoline plunged 11 cents to $2.93 per gallon, heating oil declined about 10 cents to $3.19 per gallon, and natural gas declined 14 cents to $8.11 per million BTUs.

Russia: a threat to the west's oil?

Further, Felson said Russia's action "have caused the west to re-evaluate the global oil and energy equation" to account for the new - - and unexpected - - Russia wild card.

"Whereas before the prevailing view was incorporation of Russia into the oil and energy markets and as a net-plus for production and supplies, long-term, the new view is guarded," Felson said. "Not only are supplies from Russia now viewed as liabilities, but the west now has to ask, 'what other oil-rich areas might Russia might try to threaten?' And what about it's natural gas relationship with Germany?" [Russia supplies about 20% of Germany's natural gas.]

Airlines globally could lose $6.1 billion in 2008, on soaring oil prices and financial market dislocation, the head of the International Air Transport Association said, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday (subscription required).

Giovanni Bisignani, managing director of the IATA, which represents 230 airlines, called the sector "a fragile industry in a crisis" and that it's "bracing for more situations of airlines collapsing," due to high fuel prices and lower revenue, The Journal reported. Further, the air travel slowdown, once thought to be contained to developed nations, has spread to global air travel's plum: Asia, he added.

Airline slowdown could hurt Boeing, Airbus

Stock analyst and frequent flier C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Thursday if the Asian hemisphere is slowing, to go along with sluggish revenue statistics in Europe and the United States, the slowdown "would have wide implications, not just for airlines, but for airplane manufacturers Boeing and Airbus."

"Further consolidation globally, was a given, particularly in nations like India, which had too many airlines even before the global economy slowed, but the concern now is that national carriers will postpone or cancel plane orders," Bauer said. "From a U.S. perspective, that could mean bad news for Boeing. And what's bad news for Boeing is bad news for the U.S economy. Airplane sales have been one of the U.S. economy's few bright spots." [Bauer added that he does not own shares in or have a rating on any airline or airplane manufacturer. However, Bauer does have frequent flier miles/points in American Airlines (NYSE: AMR).]

American Airlines, British Air and Spain's Iberia have signed a joint business agreement on flights between North America and Europe, American Airlines announced Thursday.

American (NYSE: AMR) added that the three airlines plan to file for global antitrust immunity from U.S. officials and will also apply from the same in Europe.

Under the deal announced Thursday, the three airlines will cooperate commercially on flights between the United States zone (encompassing Canada and Mexico) and the European Union (including Switzerland and Norway), while continuing to operate as separate, legal companies.

Analyst: 'an absolute, positive, must deal'

Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Thursday rival competitors may argue that the deal will reduce competition internationally, but in Bauer's interpretation the agreement is "an absolute, positive, must deal," due to the changing nature of flight and air travel.

"The reality is, we're becoming a global travel marketplace, not just a national one, one that will eventually be accessible to everyone, and in this decade the key players will compete on transcontinental and global routes," Bauer said. "That means the carriers need global scale and the American-British Air-Iberia deal accomplishes that. It is an absolute, positive, must deal." (Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in any airline. However, Bauer does have frequent flier miles/points in American Airlines.)

Just call it 'two steps forward, one step back' for the global trade talks.

The collapse of the World Trade Organization's trade talks this week without an agreement is a setback, economists contacted by BloggingStocks agreed, but it is not likely likely to prevent international trade from growing in 2009.

The nine-day talks in Geneva -- aimed at completing the Doha Round -- collapsed Tuesday after the United States and the European Union could not reach an agreement with China and India on what constituted acceptable tariffs for food imports, The New York Times reported Wednesday. The U.S. and E.U. say China and India wanted to impose prohibitively high tariffs. China and India counter that they were insisting on safeguard rules to protect their food supplies.

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks the elimination of food import tariffs would have resulted in more-efficient deployment of resources, and, ultimately, lower food prices for consumer around the world, along with increased the increased commerce that trade brings. "The failure of the talks is a real loss for consumers in China, India and in the U.S. and Europe," Langan said. "It will also really hurt low cost food producers in Brazil, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. Ultimately, China and India will have to relent, or the west may begin to complain about free trade conditions for manufacturing and services. That manufacturing free trade policy has been the source of a considerable amount of China's and India's economic growth."

The past couple of trading days it started to look as though oil had finally run out of steam and was coming back to "reasonable" levels. Well, prices are moving higher once again today following news that Iran has test-launched 9 missiles today.

After heading up to $145 a barrel last week, oil had fallen nicely over the past two trading sessions, and as of last night prices were down at $136.04. Today, oil is moving up $1.63 a barrel as the market once again is facing the hard reality of an unpredictable future in the Middle East.

Iran has been all over the news over the past couple of years, and the main theme is the country's nuclear energy ambitions. The West, and Israel, have been claiming for a long time now that Iran has one goal in mind... nuclear weapons. But Iran has been defiant in its claims that it is only after nuclear energy and that its nuclear program is purely for peaceful means.

The need to fulfill promises of increased aid for Africa, and a general agreement between the United States and Russia on an approach to Iran's nuclear program took center stage as leaders from the Group of Eight industrial nations met Monday in Japan, The Associated Press reported.

President Bush, attending his last summit as a sitting U.S. president, underscored the importance of providing aid for Africa, calling on wealthy nations to provide mosquito netting and other aid to prevent needless deaths, the AP reported.

Basic items - - even equipment as basic as mosquito netting - - can reduce mortality rates in sections of Africa. Mosquito netting prevents children and others from dieing of bites from disease-carrying mosquitoes.

In 2005 the G-8 pledged to increase global aid to $130 billion, and increase assistance to Africa to $50 billion. ONE, a nonpartisan group working to end extreme poverty, predicted that the U.S. and the United Kingdom will meet their commitments, while France, Italy, Germany and Canada are off the mark, Bloomberg News reported Monday.

Increased global food aid likely

Economist Glen Langan, whose specializations include agricultural economics, said increased aid for food and agricultural development will likely be announced by G-8 leaders at the summit, or soon thereafter, due to the rising cost of food's impact on poorer nations. "The aid will be targeted to meeting basic needs first, but with an eye toward directing some funds to self-sustaining agriculture," Langan said, adding that Africa "has the potential to achieve food production gains greater than South America."

Oil fell more than $5 to about $140 per barrel Monday morning after Iran's foreign minister expressed confidence in talks with western governments regarding the nation's nuclear program, Bloomberg News reported.

Iran's foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki told CNN talks are "in a new environment" and "new approaches" are possible.

A rising dollar Monday morning also helped push oil lower. The dollar strengthened against the euro and the British pound on expectation G-8 industrial leaders will verbally support the dollar at an upcoming economic summit in Japan.

Oil fell $5.14 to $140.15 per barrel Monday morning before recovering slightly to $141.30. The other major energy commodities also plunged in early Monday trading. Heating oil plummeted 13 cents to $3.97 per gallon, unleaded gasoline fell about 10 cents to $3.47 per gallon, and natural gas plunged 42 cents to $13.16 per million BTUs.

Economist Glen Langan, who argues that fundamentals (primarily rising demand) are the major factors determining oil's price, said legitimate progress on the Iran uranium enrichment issue would ease traders' concerns about Iran's supply. "Iran is still OPEC's No. 2 producer and a major exporter of oil, so lasting good news with regard to Iran will ease traders minds about tensions in and near the Persian Gulf. That will take some pressure off prices," Langan said. About 20% of the world's oil flows through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

OPEC President Chalib Khelil predicted that oil will rise $170 per barrel by the end of 2008, due to the weak dollar and geopolitical tensions, Bloomberg News reported.

Khelil said that as "the dollar continues to weaken against the euro," it will push oil to the aforementioned level and that political pressure on Iran is boosting the price as well.

Oil rose $3.46 to a record $143.67 per barrel Monday morning before drifting back slightly to $142.67 on concern the dispute over Iran's nuclear program may disrupt supply from that OPEC nation, energy trader Jim Dietz said. Iran is OPEC's second largest producer.

Meanwhile, the dollar was virtually unchanged against the euro at $1.5739 in early Monday trading.

OPEC said Tuesday it won't match member Saudi Arabia's 200,000 barrel per day production boost, because in the cartel's estimation there's no need to increase output, The Associated Press reported Tuesday.

OPEC President Chakib Khelil said there's no need to increase supply, citing factors outside of OPEC's control, including the weak U.S. dollar and U.S. pressure on Iran, for high oil prices. Khelil also blamed the U.S. mortgage crisis and speculators for driving oil prices higher.

The United States and the European Union want Iran to end uranium enrichment, a technology which would give Iran the materials needed to produce a nuclear bomb. Iran says it wants the nuclear technology solely to produce energy. If one discounts oil sands, Iran, also a member of OPEC, has the world's second largest proved oil reserves, after Saudi Arabia.

Khelil's comments had little impact on the oil market Tuesday. Oil closed down 19 cents to $136.55 in a session devoid of major price moves -- a rarity for the oil markets in the past two years.

Oil: A record year

OPEC said Wednesday it wants a "solution" to end record-high oil prices, including an examination of the role speculators and governments of consuming and producing nations, when it meets later this month in Saudi Arabia, Bloomberg News reported.

Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter and holder of the largest proved oil reserves, said it wants heads of state from consumer/producer nations to attend the June 22 meeting in Jeddah, Reuters reported, although it was unclear if any heads of state outside the cartel will attend the meeting.

A International Energy Agency official said the IEA's Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka would attend the meeting.

After a week-long pullpack with many traders calling a correction in a bull market, oil's seemingly inexorable drive to a price few individuals or companies can afford continued Wednesday. Oil closed up $5.11 to $136.42 per barrel after the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced a below-consensus 4.6-million-barrel decline in weekly oil inventories.

Although OPEC's previous meeting in Rome led to no new insights regarding oil, OPEC General Secretary Abdalla el-Badri told Bloomberg News this meeting will be different: "This one is different. This one is specifically to tackle the high oil prices, why they are high, who is to blame," el-Badri said. "Is this a real shortage in the market, or speculation, or the dollar? What is wrong?"

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said continental Europe should take the lead in financial market reform because the "Anglo-Saxon" model of regulation had failed, The Financial Times reported Wednesday.

Merkel, speaking before her meeting with U.S. President Bush and ahead of next month's G-8 leading industrialized nations economic summit, called for a European credit ratings agency to counter-balance Moody's and Standard & Poor's (NYSE: MHP), adding that despite the progress Europe has made with the euro, the financial regulatory framework is still "a strongly Anglo-Saxon dominated system."

Reforms sought by Berlin will include a ban on agency ratings for products they helped to create, new capital adequacy ratios for banks, and the prevention of bank sale of products they don't understand.

London-based economist Mark Chandler told BloggingStocks Wednesday he agrees with Merkel on the need for both financial market reform and a Europe-based counterweight to complement the largely U.S.-based regulatory framework, but is slightly surprised by Merkel's rhetoric.