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Dwayne Johnson and Disney conjure up a hit with 'Race to Witch Mountain'

Well, it looks like Disney (NYSE: DIS) redeemed itself after the awful Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert disappointment.

According to early estimates at Boxofficemojo, the Mouse's new movie, Race to Witch Mountain, was the number-one flick at domestic theaters this past weekend. The remake of the classic Disney film Escape to Witch Mountain took in roughly $25 million.

That was more than enough to send Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Watchmen to second place. The superhero project made around $18 million. Coming in third was another remake, although this is no family movie, I can tell you that. Distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures, The Last House on the Left, a grim horror film full of terror and torture, took in $14 million.

Continue reading Dwayne Johnson and Disney conjure up a hit with 'Race to Witch Mountain'

Universal Pictures had a great year -- does it matter?

Recently, Zac Bissonnette took Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and its press-release wizards to task for essentially issuing a document that was full of spin but low on substance. This was in regard to Amazon having its "best Christmas ever." I'm sure you've heard about it. Well, I was looking at an article yesterday that talked about some box-office numbers from General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures asset. I kind of got the same feeling about the numbers as Zac did about the Amazon Christmas thing.

Of course, keep in mind, the article I was looking at was not a press release. Still, the execs at NBC Universal are surely pretty proud about the numbers. After all, they are supposed to be best-ever stats. On the domestic side of things, Universal achieved a total box-office gross of approximately $1.1 billion.

On the international front, the studio brought in $1.7 billion. The year-over-year growth rate was flat for domestic theaters, and for international theaters, the company saw a robust 66% increase. Personally, I'm not impressed. To begin with, domestic was flat, and that's not good. And as for international, well, there was no context in terms of the effects of currency rates.

Plus, does it really matter if a studio is achieving high grosses? There's never any comment about profits and losses on specific titles, compensation structures for the stars, etc. To me, this data doesn't say a lot (admittedly, I'll never be satisfied with the amount of disclosure that studios are required to give on their movie projects).

The article mentions two films as drivers for the year that, in my opinion, underperformed in the domestic marketplace: The Incredible Hulk, based on the Marvel (NYSE: MVL) character, and the latest sequel in the Mummy franchise. The latter barely made it over the $100 million mark, and the former only grossed a little better than $130 million. Big deal. You would have figured that Universal could have squeezed some more box-office bucks out of these properties.

Many on Wall Street believe that GE should rid itself of NBC Universal. I'm not one of them, but I concede that Universal Pictures needs to do better. Seriously, Universal Pictures did okay, but not great, in '08. I sincerely hope that CEO Jeffrey Immelt does not allow the studio to rest on these laurels. That would be a shame, and a slap in the face to shareholders.

Disclosure: I own GE; positions can change without notice.

Will there be any more 'Hulk' movies?

Marvel (NYSE: MVL) is all about making movie franchises these days. For instance, the success of Iron Man has led to plans for a sequel. Shareholders are, understandably, happy about this since a series of blockbuster films will rake in a lot of money for the company and have a positive effect on the shares.

But, Marvel's second movie out of the gate, The Incredible Hulk, may not get the sequel treatment, according to the Hollywood Reporter. The article implied that the financial performance of the film may not have been blockbuster enough to make a sequel inevitable. That doesn't mean that it won't eventually get one, but since there are, as of now, no plans for another Hulk, the speculation is out there. As aforementioned, we already know that there will be another Iron Man.

As a Marvel shareholder, I am disappointed by the box-office results for this latest iteration of the Hulk (even the first weekend seemed weak). Back in 2003, when that year's movie version of the character was released, there was widespread disdain for the project (I myself couldn't stand the flick). Then came this summer's so-called reboot of the franchise. Unfortunately, as of now, 2008 Hulk hasn't done much better than 2003 Hulk.

Continue reading Will there be any more 'Hulk' movies?

I'm nervous about the new 'Hulk' movie

I have a confession to make: I'm getting nervous as the weekend approaches. A certain movie has me rather frightened. Is it that creepy picture about mass suicides from M. Night Shyamalan? Nope. It's Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) The Incredible Hulk. I'm a shareholder of Marvel, and I'm worried about its prospects. It opens on Friday the 13th. Yeah, that's a lucky omen.

Hulk, which is being distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal (I own GE as well, but this won't move GE at all), represents a fresh start for the green, angry beast. If you'll recall, there was a Hulk movie back in summer 2003. It was horrible. In fact, I remember getting up and walking around the theater during a portion of the film so that I could do a bit of self-editing on it. This time around could be different. I just read a review from The Hollywood Reporter that was featured in this Reuters link, and I have to say, I do feel a little calmer. According to the review, this new take on the Hulk character is an entertaining cinematic diversion wholly suitable for the dog days of summer. It apparently is a superior product.

Continue reading I'm nervous about the new 'Hulk' movie

Time Warner scores at the box office with 'Sex' pic

The box-office estimates from Boxofficemojo for this past weekend surprised the heck out of me. Apparently, I'm out of touch with how popular this HBO show actually was because Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Sex and the City captured first place at domestic multiplexes, hauling in over $55 million as of now (the numbers will change when they are finalized later on). Honestly, I thought I was going to be writing about the failure of Carrie and the gang. Kudos to Time Warner for opening this picture to great success.

Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull continues to bring in the nostalgia crowd as well as generate new fans for the franchise. It came in second place with about $46 million for the weekend. Still, I'm amazed that "Sex and the City" topped it.

Continue reading Time Warner scores at the box office with 'Sex' pic

Should film studios always spread the risk?

General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures asset received some good news the other day -- 75% of the studio's movie projects for the next few years will be funded, in part, by a financing entity known as Relativity Capital. According to The Hollywood Reporter, the deal calls for Relativity to help cover production costs, but not marketing programs; it could see about $500 million spread out over as many as 45 movies. Also, this is being described as a bona fide partnership -- not only will Relativity share in profits generated by ancillary channels, such as home video and television sales, but it will also have the power to co-greenlight a project, and it will be able to review the talent and budget attached to each project.

Financing by hedge funds and private equity is certainly not new in Hollywood; it's been around for a long time. So has the practice of selling off international rights and partnerships between studio competitors. Remember James Cameron's Titanic? It took the studio segments of both Viacom (NYSE: VIA) and News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) to shoulder that costly celluloid endeavor. But, although I recognize that filmmaking is extremely risky, and that a flop is very much in the cards whether or not big stars are in a film, I also have to wonder if it might be better for studios to simply lessen their risk by making much cheaper movies and foregoing the distribution of risk. What's my beef with distribution of risk? Well, I'm not the first to say this, and it's pretty obvious at any rate: hedge your bet, and you also limit your upside score in terms of a windfall.


Continue reading Should film studios always spread the risk?

Hasbro continues to go Hollywood

Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) is becoming quite the Hollywood power. Sure, the company helped launch a new sci-fi/fantasy franchise last year with Transformers, but that doesn't mean it wants to sit back and relax by the pool just yet. Instead, Hasbro is taking meetings and getting deals done.

General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures has entered into a six-year deal with Hasbro to produce four feature films using some of the toy maker's various intellectual properties. Included in the mix are the major boardgames we all know and love -- Candy Land, Clue, Battleship, and, of course, perhaps most famous of them all, Monopoly. The first project should be out around 2010.

I'm not sure about Candy Land, but a movie based on Monopoly would be pretty cool. I have no idea what Universal Pictures has in mind for these properties -- I mean, will the boardgames come to life and intrude upon the real world, or will the stories be set literally inside the boardgames themselves? -- but I think this deal has real potential. A few more big hits like Transformers will do wonders for Hasbro and its brand equity. And I do believe these movies could be big hits, especially if the right stars are attached (imagine Jim Carrey and Donald Trump in a Monopoly movie, for example).

Continue reading Hasbro continues to go Hollywood

Evan Almighty's arc just sank

I recently blogged about my concerns if Evan Almighty flopped this weekend.

I, as well as many others, would classify the $32.1 million opening weekend of Evan as a flop. Peter Sanders of the WSJ believes that Evan Almighty was the first "major pothole" in Hollywood's sequel-filled summer. He also put Evan in the same category as Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, by saying May's blockbuster "threequels" were all expected to fall short of their previous domestic sales numbers.

Could that be true? Looking at the numbers, Sanders has a good argument. That's only if you thought sequels should outperform the original. Other than Shrek II, most of the recent sequels made less than its predecessors. Even the Harry Potter franchise couldn't make a sequel that outperformed the $317.5 million earned from Sorcerer's Stone.

Continue reading Evan Almighty's arc just sank

What happens if Universal Pictures' Evan Almighty flops?

Evan Almighty, sequel to the 2003 hit Bruce Almighty, is opening this weekend to some bad reviews. The estimated $175 million price-tag, which earned itself the title "the most expensive comedy story ever told," had to raise some eyebrows from the beginning.

Still, Universal executives Marc Shmuger and David Linde think they're going to rake in the dough with the Almighty sequel. "This movie is a great bet," Universal Chairman Marc Shmuger told the LA Times last year. "It's a spectacle fantasy and also a comedy. And a sequel to one of the most successful hits in the studio's history."

If Tom Shadyac's Evan Almighty turns into a hit, as Shumger and Universal hopes, the movie could put big-budget comedies on the front burner. If it flops, don't expect to see another big comedy for a while. Remember how Kevin Costner's Waterworld flopped in 1995? Costner's budget was also estimated at $175 million (back then), however, the U.S. box office only raked in $88 million. We didn't see too many high budget sci-fi flicks for a while after that one.

Who does this hurt? Well, it hurts General Electric (NYSE: GE) for one, parent company of Universal Pictures. Outside of the possibility of it hurting Steve Carell's career, it hurts you, the viewer. If Evan flops, don't expect to laugh while munching on your popcorn at the movies anytime soon.

'Spiderman 3', everything '3': Preview of potential summer blockbusters


Last year I previewed the big-budget summer movies, giving you a look at ten interesting films that were on the docket for the summer of 2006. This year I'm back with an even longer list (bloated like these films' budgets) of 15 movies you may want to escape to -- or possibly run screaming from.

Of these fifteen movies, Spiderman 3 and ten others are sequels, which in itself indicates something about the state of the industry (And I didn't even include Rush Hour 3 in this list, because, honestly, who wants to see that?). Two of the remaining four movies, Transformers and The Simpsons, are based on animated television shows, leaving only two original ideas in the whole lot -- Knocked Up and Ratatouille. Please, don't shoot the messenger.

Anyway, here is the list, chronologically, of the movies that Hollywood's brain-trust believes you will shell out your cash to see in the air-conditioned darkness of your local movie-house, along with my opinion of how they'll fare. The first on the list, Spider-Man 3, is already out in Asia, but will not be released here until May. All release dates below are for the U.S.

5/04 - Spider-Man 3, Sony Corp's (NYSE: SNE) Sony Pictures
Being the first blockbuster of the summer almost guarantees a successful open, and the popularity of the franchise seals that guarantee. One problem, however, is that "success" measured by any normal means won't be enough, as this movie had an estimated budget of $258M.

5/11 - 28 Weeks Later, News Corp's (NYSE: NWS) 20th Century Fox
The highlight of the horror/zombie genre for the summer, this follows the surprise success of Danny Boyle's 28 Days Later, which reinvented the zombie film with faster zombies and smarter characters.

5/18 - Shrek the Third, Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Paramount Pictures
One of the only cartoon franchises that has held its own against Pixar (Ice Age being the other), the draw of this fairytale romp is that while kids love the story, there are enough winks at the adult audience to make parents happy to take them.

5/25 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS)
Money in the bank for Disney, and since it was shot simultaneous with the second Pirates installment, it wasn't even as expensive to make as this summer's other budget hog, Spider-Man 3.

Continue reading 'Spiderman 3', everything '3': Preview of potential summer blockbusters

Does Mission III's weak open create opportunity for GE's Universal Pictures?

Mission Impossible III did not have the blockbuster weekend that many expected. I didn't see it, but reviews weren't stellar. The New York Times was lukewarm at best and the Wall Street Journal was positive, if not all that impressed. It took in $48 million, when expectations were for an opening weekend of $60 million. 

The important takeaway for GE investors is that Tom's box office bruising could open the door a little wider for GE's Universal Pictures to come up with an unexpected hit this summer. According to MovieWeb, Universal's action picture line-up includes Miami Vice, with Colin Farrell and Jamie Foxx. Maybe back-to-the-70s will score big? The Fast And The Furious: Tokyo Drift starring Bow Wow, Lucas Black, Brian Tee and Nikki Griffin debuts June 16 and ranks 9th on MovieWeb's list of  "most requested upcoming films." Maybe it will be the summer's winner?

My guess is that Universal's comedies with appealing all-star casts will be its big winners. June 2 brings The Break-Up, with Jennifer Aniston and Vince Vaughn. July 14, You, Me and Dupree, starring Owen Wilson, Kate Hudson, Matt Dillon and Michael Douglas debuts.

Good news for Universal: RV was No. 2 last weekend and United 93, No. 5. The latter seems to have some staying power.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 12:39 AM

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