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Options Update: Apollo Group volatility flat into informal revenue recognition inquiry

Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) was recently trading at $58.52 in after market trading, below its close of $72.97. APOL announced an informal inquiry into its revenue recognition practices. APOL November option implied volatility went out at 52, December at 45; verses its 26-week average of 49, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

CBOE Volatility Index: VIX was up 64 cents to 24.96.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Apollo Group Inc. (APOL) up and down

Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) owns University of Phoenix, which posted an 11% enrollment increase to 325,000 students, as well as a consolidated revenue increase of 17% to $780.7 million for 1Q2008. But this is old news. Nevertheless, the stock jumped 10% on January 31 to close at $80.64, well up from its close of $68.11 on January 8 when the quarterly earnings figures were released.

Two recent events accounted for this jump. Apollo Group's legal troubles were not as serious as previously anticipated, in the $166-277 million range instead of much higher. The company has stated it intends to fight the verdict vigorously.

The second event is that Apollo Group is well placed to respond to increased demand for specific job-related post secondary educational opportunities for working adults in the U.S. Unlike its competitors in te for-profit adult education marketplace, Apollo Group is also well placed to respond to growing international demand for U.S.-provided online and in-class post secondary education. The company recently formed a joint venture with Carlyle Group and Apollo Global to expand its student base internationally.

Apollo Group, other education stocks may have bottomed

After peaking at $98 a share in June 2004, Apollo Group' s stock has headed straight downhill and now trades at about $41.

After a great bull run that began in 1995, the industry began to mature and these stocks rolled over.

We blogged earlier today about how Pequot Capital's chief, Art Samberg, likes cotton. He also is looking for a turnaround in publicly traded education stocks. The stocks he likes are Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL), Career Education (NASDAQ: CECO) and Corinthian Colleges (NASDAQ: COCO).

Apollo has been putting a lot of money into its on-line community college program, Axia College, which it hopes can accelerate Apollo's growth rate. Management is hopeful Axia will be a feeding tube for its four-year on-line college, University of Phoenix.

Samberg also believes Career Education, which has been a real bloodbath, could be ripe for a turnaround under new management.

Publicly traded education stocks, as an industry, have stayed away from using leveraged balance sheets. Samberg notes that if current valuation persists and if fundamentals start improving, private equity firms could find these companies very attractive.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 27, 2012: 08:10 PM

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