Even with the stimulus checks, retail sales numbers for June and July have been nothing to cheer about. And this coming week should provide another look at how things have been shaping up in the apparel and accessories arena. A number of companies are scheduled to release quarterly numbers, from upscale retailer Nordstrom to the parent of discounter TJ Maxx, from hipster Urban Outfitters to global giant Wal-Mart. Here's a look at what Wall Street is anticipating.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.
The earnings season continues to roll on, and next week's results offer a peek at the state of fashion retailing, as a variety of companies -- from the discount to the upscale, from the hip to the pedestrian -- are scheduled to report earnings.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year, from Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) to be 22.7% to 22 cents per share, from Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) to be 9.3% to 75 cents per share, and from TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) to be 7.5% to 40 cents per share.
Analysts expect earnings declines from the previous year from JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) by 52.9% to 49 cents per share, from Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) by 34.4% to 42 cents per share, and from Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) by 18.3% to 49 cents per share.
In the case of Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), analysts expect earnings to remain flat, year over year, at 65 cents per share.
And then there's Macy's (NYSE: M), which is expected to swing to a loss of 2 cents per share, compared to a profit of 16 cents a year ago.
The sample size may be too small to define any significant trends, but the numbers do suggest that analysts expect profit declines to be deeper than profit growth, and that consumers may be more likely, given the current state of the economy, to buy clothes at Wal-Mart or TJ Maxx than at Nordstrom or Abercrombie.
The coming results will reveal if those expectations are correct.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Southwest Gas, Hittite Microwave and Repsol SA were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Citigroup upgraded shares of Southwest Gas (NYSE: SWX) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they believe the company's fundamentals have improved enormously over the last three years.
Thomas Weisel upgraded shares of Hittite Microwave (NASDAQ: HITT) to Overweight from Market Weight, as they believe the company is executing on its strategy of increasing new product introductions and growing its global sales efforts. They believe shares are undervalued and maintain a $43 target.
Repsol SA (NYSE: REP) was raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank as they expect good news to flow in 2008.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman upgraded CNOOC (NYSE: CEO) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to their Conviction Buy List.
Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) was raised to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) shares opened higher this morning but have slipped throughout the day after the company posted a fourth-quarter profit of $53.6 million, or 32 cents per share, helped by fewer markdowns and increased same-store sales. Analysts had been expecting URBN to post a profit of 29 cents per share. Today's weakness could be attributed to some bad retail reports from other companies, but comparatively, URBN's performance today is not too bad. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on URBN.
After hitting a one-year low of $19.20 in July, the stock hit a one-year high of $31.32 in just this past month. URBN opened this morning at $30.01. So far today the stock has hit a low of $28.94 and a high of $30.45. As of 12:30, URBN is trading at $29.01, down $0.33 (1.1%). The chart for URBN looks bullish and deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a bullish 4 Stars (out of 5) Buy rating.
The choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market conditions sometimes give the impression that growth plays do not exist, but that is not the case, and one growth company worth evaluating is Urban Outfitters.
Urban Outfitters, Inc. (Nasdaq: URBN) operates more than 120 specialty retail stores under the Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie, and Free People brands, and also offers clothes via a wholesale division under the Free People label.
Analysts like the fact that URBN carries in-demand, self-expressive merchandise, with differentiated retail brands. Most analysts believe the company has achieved a retail gold star: a unique brand position in the ages 18-24 customer category. Moreover, a relatively high 50/50 private label/nation brand inventory lowers inventory risk.
Sales increased an impressive 23% in FY 2008, with analysts seeing a 20-25% rise in FY 2009. Operating costs are reasonable. The Reuters FY 2008/FY 2009 EPS consensus estimates for URBN are $0.90 to $1.15.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Coca-Cola, Novo Nordisk and Equinix were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Bear Stearns upgraded The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) to Outperform from Peer Perform, as they expect it to post solid earnings short-term with potential upside, and over the long-term due to its upgraded business model.
Bernstein raised its rating on Novo Nordisk AS (NYSE: NVO) to Outperform from Market Perform, as they believe consensus estimates do not reflect the company's growth potential.
Merriman upgraded shares of Equinix Inc (NASDAQ: EQIX) to Buy from Neutral on valuation following the recent sell-off. The firm expects strong Q4 results.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this stock won't quit, and it's beyond Bernanke's reach.
Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) (Cramer's Take) is absolutely doing it right. This morning on "Squawk Box," I got to talking with Brad Stevens from Morgan Keegan and it hit me: URBN is making it because it is selling where the others guys aren't.
That makes for secular growth, not cyclical growth, and that also makes for a stock that won't quit.
There's a brand-new Urban Outfitters coming up in Brooklyn, and I think this will be a reminder when it opens in March that some chains are not going to be hostage to Bernanke. This is one of them.
Exciting stock for this environment and a way to shake off the Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) (Cramer's Take) blues.
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Synthesis Energy, Lamar Advertising and Urban Outfitters were today's noteworthy initiations:
Merriman believes Synthesis Energy Systems Inc (NASDAQ: SYMX) is well-positioned as it begins to leverage its exclusive global license for U-GAS technology and commences the deployment of its coal-to-methanol production facilities in China. The firm started shares with a Buy rating.
Lamar Advertising Company (NASDAQ: LAMR) was initiated with a Buy rating and $51 target at Jefferies, as they believe shares are oversold at current levels.
William Blair believes Urban Outfitters Inc (NASDAQ: URBN) will benefit from both strong sales and a steep margin recovery in the coming two years. The firm assumed coverage of Urban with an Outperform rating.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Lehman started United Rentals Inc (NYSE: URI) with an Equal Weight rating and $22 target.
After hitting a one-year low of $19.20 in July, the stock has hit a new one-year high today. URBN opened this morning at $24.60. So far today the stock has hit a low of $24.60 and a high of $25.36. As of 10:55, URBN is trading at $25.00, up $1.01 (4.2%). The chart for URBN looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
True Religion Apparel (NASDAQ: TRLG) is one of those companies that has a core cult following of investors, and it nearly defies logic. The company sells $200 and $300 blue jeans, among other apparel, has its own stores and also sells through key retailers like Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN), Neiman Marcus, Barneys, and other upscale retailers.
Shares are up big today, at $22.53 as of 10:20, and this more than 10% post-earnings move could get the stock within striking distance of its all-time highs from 2006. The company posted $0.21 net and $0.25 non-GAAP EPS on revenues of $35.7 million. Analysts were looking for $0.26 non-GAAP EPS and $35.7 million in revenues, according to First Call.
The company plans to add to its eight branded stores, increasing to fifteen stores by year end. The company is maintaining strong guidance for 2007, with $1.24 to $1.27 EPS and maintained about $167 million in revenue projections. First Call has estimates of $1.25 EPS and $166 million in revenues. This has been a stock that many short sellers have attacked, because after all, it sells $300 jeans.
This one has been shocking when you consider what the company does. It has a $500 million market cap. It has seen management infighting over a divorce that resulted in large share sales. Many on Wall Street think it is a prime short sale candidate. It hasn't been able to find a buyer. And it sells $300 jeans. Yet here it is, up over 10% and close to a year-high again.
Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: EMC Corp (EMC), NetEase.com, Inc (NTES), Wireless Ronin Technologies (RNIN), Activision (ATVI) and GameStop Corp (GME) were today's noteworthy initiations:
BMO Capital expects upside to EMC Corp's (NYSE: EMC) June quarter estimates, but only sees limited share upside from current levels. The firm started shares with a Market Perform rating and $21 target.
Pali Research believes NetEase.com (NASDAQ: NTES) must address the discontinuity in its growth and started shares off with a Neutral rating.
Barrington expects Wireless Ronin (NASDAQ: RNIN) to benefit from growth towards broadcasting to the outdoor component of out-of-home and views the company as an emerging growth opportunity that is starting with a strong technological base and management team. The firm started shares with an Outperform rating.
First Albany initiated shares of GameStop (NYSE: GME) with a Buy rating, citing upside potential to 2008 estimates.
Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) was also initiated at First Albany, with a Buy rating, as the firm is expecting strong results and guidance...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Jefferies initiated Polycom (NASDAQ: PLCM) with a Buy rating.
Deutsche Bank started Zoran (NASDAQ: ZRAN) with a Buy rating.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Crocs, Inc (CROX), Plantronics, Inc (PLT), MasterCard Inc (MA) and American Express Co (AXP) top Wednesday's noteworthy list:
JP Morgan started Crocs Inc (NASDAQ: CROX) with an Overweight rating based on the company's strong growth model.
JMP Securities upgraded Plantronics Inc (NYSE: PLT) with a Market Perform citing price competition and visibility in the speaker market.
MasterCard Inc (NYSE: MA) was started with an Underweight rating at Thomas Weisel citing concerns regarding increased pressure from bank issuing partners regarding fees and reduced cross border pricing benefits. Additionally,
Thomas Weisel started American Express Co (NYSE: AXP) with an Overweight rating, expecting increased card issuance migration and merchant migration due to increased pressure on bank fees and increasing consumer demand for rewards...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Stifel started Microsemi Corp (NASDAQ: MSCC) with a Buy rating and $28 target.
Stock screeners are tools that let investors filter through a large number of stocks according to chosen criteria. While helping investors pick stocks and narrow down options, it is important to remember that a stock screener is just a tool and every investment should be analyzed on its own merits to make sure it fits with your personal portfolio and risk characteristics. This is my weekly column that finds interesting investment opportunities with the help of our Stock Screener.
Update: I've written the post before the recent rumors reported in the New York Post about Barneys New York possibly being bought by Dubai oil sheiks. While I did mention that I've noticed increased activity in JNY trading, the reason was unclear. I now expanded further on the matter at the end of the post.
Last Friday was Good Friday and like every good Canadian who lives along the U.S. border, we decided we couldn't handle one day without shopping (stores in Canada were closed). So we drove to Buffalo. Bargain huntin'. With the low U.S. dollar, bargains are even better. We went to the outlet mall and, as usual, I got stuck at Jones New York, hubby at Liz Claiborne.
Last week I came across an article in Forbes about the possibility of Gianni Versace S.p.A. going public. Versace had recently announced it swung a profit in 2006 and that it plans to further expand in Asia. A Versace IPO could be worth $1.2 billion. A Wall Street Journal article mentioned that a few other private fashion houses might also consider public offering [subscription] next year, including Prada SpA.
Naturally, with all this in my head, I wanted to see how the U.S. fashion stores are doing. In the Stock Screener, I chose the Women's Clothing industry and a minimum $1 billion market capitalization. Lo and behold, the stock screener returnedLiz Claiborne Inc. (NYSE: LIZ) and Jones Apparel Group Inc. (NYSE: JNY).
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Chico's FAS, Inc (CHS), Live Nation (LYV) and Clear Channel Communications, Inc (CCU) were some of today's notable upgrades:
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey upgraded shares ofChico's FAS Inc(NYSE: CHS) to Market Perform from Underperform and raised their target to $25 from $17 on valuation.
Matrix USA upgraded Live Nation(NYSE: LYV) to Hold from Sell on valuation.
Sanders Morris upgraded Clear Channel Communications (NYSE: CCU) to Hold from Sell, as the firm believes the disapproval by holders to sell the company will result in shares trading in the $34-$37 range.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Lehman upgraded PPL Corp (NYSE: PPL) to Overweight from Equal-Weight.
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey continued to recommend shares of Urban Outfitters, Inc (NASDAQ: URBN) with an Outperform rating as the firm has seen consistent progress at both the company's divisions throughout March. Friedman added Urban Outfitters to its Top Picks list.
JP Morgan raised Sonic Corp (NASDAQ: SONC) to an Overweight rating from Neutral, and believes shares have priced in softer Q2 sales that were pre-announced late-February.
Even with the stimulus checks, retail sales numbers for June and July have been nothing to cheer about. And this coming week should provide another look at how things have been shaping up in the apparel and accessories arena. A number of companies are scheduled to release quarterly numbers, from upscale retailer Nordstrom to the parent of discounter TJ Maxx, from hipster Urban Outfitters to global giant Wal-Mart. Here's a look at what Wall Street is anticipating.
The earnings season continues to roll on, and next week's results offer a peek at the state of fashion retailing, as a variety of companies -- from the discount to the upscale, from the hip to the pedestrian -- are scheduled to report earnings.
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TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this stock won't quit, and it's beyond Bernanke's reach.
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