Analyst Upgrades

• Akamai (AKAM) to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Aetna (AET) to Outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• Hot Topic (HOTT) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Colonial Properties (CLP) upgraded to Outperform from market perform at FBR Capital and to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Altera (ALTR) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• American Reprographics (ARC), CarMax (KMX) and American Campus (ACC) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Zebra Tech (ZBRA) to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• IMAX (IMAX) to buy from hold at Canaccord.
• Basic Energy (BAS) to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• Mednax (MD) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• UTi Worldwide (UTIW) to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

You didn't want to be a short-term shareholder in Urban Outfitters (URBN) during Monday's after-hours session. At the time I was writing this, I saw a quote of $34.10. That's a 10% drop. And that isn't good.

A fourth-quarter earnings report caused the volatility. According to TheFly, net income came in seven pennies less than expected. Also, gross margin experienced a decline.

So, the unemployment rate sank below 9% in February, but investors didn't seem to be impressed by that. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all fell on Friday over concerns about how the ongoing unrest in the Middle East might affect energy prices, and thus the economic recovery.

Will this coming week's economic calendar offer anything likely to bring excitement to the markets? Here's what's on tap:

• Monday: Consumer credit numbers for January
• Tuesday: Weekly chain store sales, TIPP Economic Optimism Index

Analyst Upgrades

• Athenahealth (ATHN), Ensco (ESV), Pride International (PDE) and Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• CIRCOR (CIR) to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Shaw Group (SHAW) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• MGM Resorts (MGM) and Boyd Gaming (BYD) to buy from neutral, as well as Intrepid Potash (IPI) to neutral from underperform, at BofA/Merrill.
• Carlisle (CSL) to buy from neutral at SunTrust.

Analyst Upgrades

• Boeing (BA) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Alcoa (AA) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• BP (BP) to outperform from market perform at Raymond James.
• Office Depot (ODP) and Staples (SPLS) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• ON Semiconductor (ONNN) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Kennametal (KMT) and Polyone (POL) to buy from hold at KeyBanc.
• Airgas (ARG) to outperform from market perform at William Blair.
• EchoStar (SATS) to neutral from underperform at Macquarie.

Urban Outfitters (URBN) was downgraded this morning from hold to buy at Brean Murray Carret & Co. The brokerage attributed the downgrade to "forced incremental discounting" at the firm's Anthropologie and Urban Outiftters chains, MarketWatch reported.

In addition, URBN is facing "materially difficult" comparisons during the first half of fiscal 2012. The analyst expects the company will remain under competitive and cost increase pressures despite its varied inventory, MarketWatch added. Wall Street Strategies also lowered URBN.

Urban Outfitters (URBN), whose colleagues include Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and Gap (GPS), is down in afternoon trading. The stock was off by $1.65, or over 4%, and had a quote of $37.76. Volume wasn't outrageous when I was writing this, but it will go above the norm once all is said and done for the day.

The stock hasn't been a bad one to own over the last twelve months. Of course, many retailers have seen their shares rise along with the improving economy. What should we think of Urban Outfitters after today's earnings report?

Last week's retail sales numbers were encouraging. And some shopping mall favorites take their turns in the earnings spotlight this week: JCPenney (JCP), Nordstrom (JWN), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Kohl's Corp. (KSS) and Macy's (M). Overall, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect to see earnings growth from these retailers for the first quarter.

Texas-based department store operator JCPenney declared a quarterly dividend and tendered a debt offering in its first quarter. Earnings for that period are expected to have more than doubled from a year ago to $0.24 per share. Revenue for the three months that ended in April, however, is expected to have inched up 1.4% in the past year to $3.9 billion. And analysts expect to see year-over-year earnings and revenue growth in the second quarter. JCPenney's per-share earnings have come in within pennies of consensus estimates in the past five quarters, beating by two cents in the fourth quarter.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• AutoZone Inc. (AZO) reported better-than-expected Q2 earnings, as well as sales and gross margin growth.
• Big Lots Inc. (BIG) beat Q4 earnings expectations, raised its guidance, and lifted its share repurchase program.
• Carmike Cinemas Inc. (CKEC) swung to better-than-expected profit in Q4 and reported strong sales growth.
• Ciena Corp. (CIEN) reported a bigger-than-expected Q1 net loss and some revenue growth, and offered guidance.
• DISH Network Corp. (DISH) posted a year-over-year increase in Q4 revenue but also a decline in per-share earnings.

Urban Outfitters (URBN - option chain) shares are rising today after the company reported earnings this morning, posting a fourth-quarter profit of $77.68 million, or 45 cents per share, on revenue of $588 million. Analysts had forecast a profit of 40 cents per share on revenue of $586 million. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on URBN.

URBN opened this morning at $34.44. So far today the stock has hit a low of $33.95 and a high of $34.75. As of 11:45, URBN is trading at $34.24 up 84 cents (2.5%). The chart for URBN looks bullish and S&P gives URBN a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

The Federal Reserve's next Beige Book report is scheduled to be released this week. This report is a compilation of anecdotal information on current economic conditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank districts, and it is released eight times a year. The data comes from interviews with business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The previous report, released in January, showed some improvement in most districts and growth in consumer spending over the holiday period, though unemployment remained high. The December report showed modest improvement in eight of the districts.

Retailers were in the earnings spotlight last week and for the most part made a strong showing of it. Even as the earnings season winds down, some more retailers are scheduled to release quarterly results this week.

This week, the world's top retailers will tell investors how the much-discussed holiday season went. Analysts expect a year-over-year gain of 1.3% for stores open at least a year, which of course uses a dismal 2008 as a benchmark.

The holiday shopping season is the last chance retailers get to pump up their financial statements before the close of their fiscal year, which usually comes at the end of January. For some retailers, up to 40% of their revenue comes in the weeks heading into Christmas.

Stores were busy on Black Friday, as deals lured recession-weary consumers out of their homes. The spending was cautious, but the crowds and transactions signaled strength.

Nonetheless, retailers are still concerned that the momentum is only temporary. With consumer spending still under pressure because of high unemployment, there's a risk that holiday shopping may not reach the levels the stores would like to see. The day after Thanksgiving is usually the hottest of the year and can account for close to 20% of annual retail sales.

On the heels of last week's better-than-expected earnings results from retailers Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF), Kohl's Corp. (KSS), Macy's Inc. (M), Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) -- as well as disappointing numbers from Blockbuster Inc. (BBI) and JCPenney Co. Inc. (JCP) -- the coming week will bring results from more shopping- and strip-mall favorites.

TJX Companies Inc. (TJX), which operates T.J. Maxx and Marshalls stores in the U.S., settled a class action, announced share buybacks and raised its guidance in the third quarter. For the three months that ended in October, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect TJX to report earnings of $0.80 per share, up from $0.57 in the same period of last year. Revenue is expected to total $5.3 billion, or 10.2% higher than a year ago. So far, the full-year forecast is for a profit of $2.59 per share (+22.3%) on $20.0 billion (+5.5%) in sales.

The conventional wisdom is that consumer spending is what drives the U.S. economy. And consumer spending arises out of consumer confidence. Unfortunately, the signals along the road to economic recovery are mixed, what with the rising GDP growth and the dismal unemployment numbers. Its enough to leave investors scratching their heads. What barometers of consumer confidence will the coming week bring?

The TIPP Economic Optimism Index for November is scheduled for Tuesday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November is due out Friday.