The conventional wisdom is that consumer spending is what drives the U.S. economy. And consumer spending arises out of consumer confidence. Unfortunately, the signals along the road to economic recovery are mixed, what with the rising GDP growth and the dismal unemployment numbers. Its enough to leave investors scratching their heads. What barometers of consumer confidence will the coming week bring?

The TIPP Economic Optimism Index for November is scheduled for Tuesday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November is due out Friday.

Last week offered mixed messages about whether an economic recovery is indeed underway. The unemployment figures were not as bad as feared, but July sales numbers were nothing to write home about, despite the wild popularity of the so-called cash-for-clunkers program.

The question is, where has consumer confidence (and consumer spending) been? Retail is a good place to look, and as it turns out, this week several shopping mall and strip mall favorites will be reporting earnings for the most recent quarter.

"Stocks have struggled lately after their huge recovery; still, I continue to see opportunities, and I especially like Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN)," says Mark Skousen in The Turnaround Alert.

"Urban Outfitters, the apparel retailer, after it beat Wall Street analysts' estimates. Two years ago, the stock was selling for $37 a share.

"But today, it's selling for nearly half that. During the deep recession, retailers have seen sales drop as consumers cut back on spending for clothing and other discretionary purchases. As a result, retail apparel stocks fell sharply.

"Stocks have struggled lately after their huge recovery; still, I continue to see opportunities in the market, and I especially like Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN)," says Mark Skousen in The Turnaround Alert.

"Urban Outfitters, the apparel retailer, after it beat Wall Street analysts' estimates. Two years ago, the stock was selling for $37 a share.

"But today, it's selling for nearly half that. During the deep recession, retailers have seen sales drop as consumers cut back on spending for clothing and other discretionary purchases. As a result, retail apparel stocks fell sharply.

As earnings season begins to wind down, some apparel retailers are scheduled to report quarterly results this week. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters anticipate that Walmart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), the 800-pound gorilla in the space, will report that it earned $0.77 per share in the first quarter, about the same as in the first quarter of last year. But JCPenney Co. (NYSE: JCP), Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), and Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) are expected to report lower profits for the first quarter as consumers continued to hold off on spending. Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M) and Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) are expected to have swung to a loss year over year.

Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI) and Winn Dixie Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: WINN) are likewise expected to report declining earnings, while the Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. (NYSE: GAP), parent of the A&P supermarket chain, is expected to have narrowed its net loss 68.9% to $0.28 per share.

American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), whose mall colleagues include Gap (NYSE: GPS), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), and Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN), posted Q4 earnings on Wednesday.

The Christmas season was a difficult one for the chain. Sales decreased 9%, and same-store sales declined a whopping 16%. Ouch, sorry to hear that, American Eagle. Earnings came in at 19 cents per share, meeting analysts expectations.

It's the same old story: to move merchandise, things had to be marked down. And that affected profits. Big time.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• American International Group Inc. (NYS: AIG) posted a record loss even as it asks for more taxpayer funds.
• AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) shares sank after it missed Q4 expectations by a wide margin.
• AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) reported strong Q2 results, sending shares upward toward its 52-week high.
• Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) shares soared after it reported better-than-expected numbers for Q4.
• Chico's FAS Inc. (NYSE: CHS) Q4 loss widened on impairment charges and severance costs.

Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN) is not the darling of Wall Street today. As I write this, the retailer's shares have lost 30% of their value. Trading volume is heavy. The company missed Wall Street's estimates by a pretty wide margin.

The call, was for an adjusted loss of $0.55 per share in the fourth quarter. According to the press release, Ann Taylor lost $1.03 per share on an adjusted basis. Last year at this time, there was a profit of $0.19 per share. What a difference a year makes. By the way, if you include all the GAAP stuff in the current Q4, Ann Taylor lost an amount equal to the mark of the beast. I don't even want to write the evil number out, but it begins with a 6 if you want a hint.

Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN), as one might have expected, didn't report a great fourth quarter. It's a fashionable retailer, so you can imagine that consumers, who aren't in the mood to spend top dollar on clothes and accessories, forced the company to do a lot of discounting.

Sales, though, were healthy. The top line increased by 9%, and same-store sales at the Urban Outfitters brand rose 3%. Unfortunately, Q4 wasn't so kind to the Anthropologie and Free People brands. Their comps were down 6% and 13%, respectively. And the company missed earnings estimates. The call was for 28 cents per share, but the retailer was only able to deliver 24 cents per share.

Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN - option chain) shares are headed higher today after the company announced this morning same-store sales that fell 1 percent in January and fourth-quarter same-store sales that rose 3 percent. With so many retail outlets showing declining sales, investors are responding favorably to any gains and even some moderate declines in sales. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on URBN.

Update Nov. 26, 2008: See all 2008 Black Friday deals.

This week, some apparel and accessory producers and retailers offer a look at how they've been doing between early summer's economic stimulus spending and the coming holiday season. While Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) reported higher earnings last week, Coldwater Creek Inc. (NASDAQ: CWTR), Eddie Bauer Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: EBHI), Kenneth Cole Productions Inc. (NYSE: KCP), and K-Swiss Inc. (NASDAQ: KSWS) all reported net losses as consumers pulled back on spending over the summer due to higher fuel prices and other economic worries. The expectations of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial for such companies scheduled to report this week don't look much different; i.e., a bright spot or two among lower expectations overall.

Hip retailer Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) is expected to post earnings 22.9% higher than a year ago, to $0.35 per share, on revenue of $475.9 million (+26.4%). The Philadelphia-based company already said that same-store sales in the quarter were 10% higher. Urban Outfitters has beat expectations in recent quarters, by 11.5% in the previous quarter, and analysts on average recommend buying URBN. Shares fell to a 52-week low of $16.61 per share on Friday, and are down 29.5% from a year ago. Other companies expected to report more modest earnings growth in the coming week include watch and accessory maker Fossil Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL), retail giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE: TJX), parent of such discount retail chains as T.J. Maxx and Marshalls. These three companies have tended to top analysts estimates in recent quarters, and Fossil and TJX ended the week near their 52-week lows.

While Los Angeles-based American Apparel Inc. (AMEX: APP) had a strong second quarter, the casual wear maker is expected to report $0.13 per share earnings for the third quarter, the same as in the year-ago period. And analysts anticipate that Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) will report that profits fell 16.4% to $0.51 per share on revenue of $3.9 billion (+1.9%). Though same-store sales for October fell 9%, the Menomonee Falls, Wis.-based company reaffirmed its third-quarter forecast. Kohl's has offered positive surprises in recent quarters, topping estimates by 5.6% in the previous quarter. The consensus recommendation remains to buy KSS. Shares have been climbing after reaching a 52-week low in late October, but are still down 32.8% from a year ago.

Even with the stimulus checks, retail sales numbers for June and July have been nothing to cheer about. And this coming week should provide another look at how things have been shaping up in the apparel and accessories arena. A number of companies are scheduled to release quarterly numbers, from upscale retailer Nordstrom to the parent of discounter TJ Maxx, from hipster Urban Outfitters to global giant Wal-Mart. Here's a look at what Wall Street is anticipating.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.

• Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN): $0.30 EPS (+36.7%) on revenue of $448.5 million (+28.7%)
• Estée Lauder Cos. Inc. (NYSE: EL): $0.56 EPS (+19.6%) on revenue of $1.9 billion (+9.4%)
• TJX Cos. Inc. (NYSE: TJX): $0.46 EPS (+17.4%) on revenue of $4.6 billion (+6.8%)
• Fossil Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL): $0.25 EPS (+16%) on revenue of $346.8 million (+13.2%)
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT): $0.84 EPS (+14.3%) on revenue of $101.7 billion (+9.3%)
• Elizabeth Arden Inc. (NASDAQ: RDEN): $0.22 EPS (+9.1%) on revenue of $237.6 million (-2.1/%)
• Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF): $0.93 EPS (+5.4%) on revenue of $872 million (+8.4%)

The earnings season continues to roll on, and next week's results offer a peek at the state of fashion retailing, as a variety of companies -- from the discount to the upscale, from the hip to the pedestrian -- are scheduled to report earnings.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year, from Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) to be 22.7% to 22 cents per share, from Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) to be 9.3% to 75 cents per share, and from TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) to be 7.5% to 40 cents per share.

Analysts expect earnings declines from the previous year from JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) by 52.9% to 49 cents per share, from Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) by 34.4% to 42 cents per share, and from Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) by 18.3% to 49 cents per share.

In the case of Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), analysts expect earnings to remain flat, year over year, at 65 cents per share.

And then there's Macy's (NYSE: M), which is expected to swing to a loss of 2 cents per share, compared to a profit of 16 cents a year ago.

The sample size may be too small to define any significant trends, but the numbers do suggest that analysts expect profit declines to be deeper than profit growth, and that consumers may be more likely, given the current state of the economy, to buy clothes at Wal-Mart or TJ Maxx than at Nordstrom or Abercrombie.

The coming results will reveal if those expectations are correct.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Astec Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTE) beat expectations and raised its guidance.
• Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE: BBI) fourth-quarter profit fails to offset the full-year loss.
• China Techfaith Wireless Communication Technology (NASDAQ: CNTF) beat analysts' expectations.
• Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) met analysts' estimates, buoyed by higher fuel prices.
• FTI Consulting Inc. (NYSE: FCN) beat expectations and raised its full-year guidance.
• H&R Block Inc. (NYSE: HRB) narrowed its loss due to higher sales and smaller subprime losses.
• Jackson Hewitt Tax Service Inc. (NYSE: JTX) missed estimates as third-quarter profits declined sharply.
• LifeCell Corp. (NASDAQ: LIFC) beat fourth-quarter estimates and offered full-year guidance.
• Marvell Technology Group (NASDAQ: MRVL) lowered its first-quarter forecast , sending shares lower.
• Porsche AG (OTC: PSEPF) profit soared on strong sales of its Cayenne.
• S1 Corp. (NASDAQ: SONE) beat expectations and offered full-year guidance.
• Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) fourth-quarter profit nearly doubled, but full-year profit declined.
• Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN) beat expectations on strength in same-store sales.
• Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) reports strong same-store sales ahead of its quarterly results.

Also, see Timothy Sykes's take on Warren Buffett's annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) shareholders. Zac Bissonnette is interested in where earnings actually come from. And Saks, Costco, and other retailers saw stronger February same-store sales despite recession concerns, but JC Penney Co. (NYSE: JCP) didn't feel the love.

Upcoming results to watch for include Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR), Boston Beer Co. (NYSE: SAM), J. Crew Group Inc. (NYSE: JCG), Jones Soda Co. (NASDAQ: JSDA), Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX), and Men's Wearhouse Inc. (NYSE: MW).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Southwest Gas, Hittite Microwave and Repsol SA were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded shares of Southwest Gas (NYSE: SWX) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they believe the company's fundamentals have improved enormously over the last three years.
• Thomas Weisel upgraded shares of Hittite Microwave (NASDAQ: HITT) to Overweight from Market Weight, as they believe the company is executing on its strategy of increasing new product introductions and growing its global sales efforts. They believe shares are undervalued and maintain a $43 target.
  
• Repsol SA (NYSE: REP) was raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank as they expect good news to flow in 2008.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Goldman upgraded CNOOC (NYSE: CEO) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to their Conviction Buy List.
  
• Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) was raised to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
  
• Broadpoint raised Ultimate Software (NASDAQ: ULTI) to Buy from Neutral.