Do you like surveys? If the answer is yes, here's one on the state of the US economy conducted by the National Association for Business Economics.

The survey gives an overall summary -- that the economy is near a low point, Yet a small majority, 102 respondents, said that their firms had not yet hit bottom. In the words of Sara Johnson of IHS Global Insight: "The US recession is abating, but few signs of immediate recovery."

Continue reading US survey on the recession says...

US survey on the recession says... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 20 Jul 2009 18:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading A bright side of the recession: Piggy bank sales are rising

A bright side of the recession: Piggy bank sales are rising originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 02 Jan 2009 13:19:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

And why not? Ford Motor (NYSE: F) announced it won't introduce a new F-150 truck, the best selling truck of all time. The reason: there are acres and acres of old F-150s sitting on dealer lots that no one wants. General Motors (NYSE: GM) is shutting truck plants longer than usual since very few of its big moneymakers are moving off lots. Homebuilders are showing huge losses and all of them say there is no light at the end of this dark tunnel. Bank news gets worse each day, with headlines screaming that we aren't near to knowing how bad this mortgage and credit crisis really is.

There is no shelter in this storm. Everywhere investors look, they see more dark clouds. Most of them believe that it gets darkest just before it get pitch black. Is the American dream gone, turned into an economic nightmare, the likes of which we haven't seen since the Depression?

Hardly. During the depression, over 30% of the workforce wasn't working. Prices were constantly going lower as fewer and fewer goods were sold. All the banks were shut for a "Bank Holiday" for three days shortly after Roosevelt was elected. People were roaming the country, looking for a job, anything to keep food on the table for their families. If the American dream were going to die, it would have done so in the late 30's and early 40's. But it didn't.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: No, the sky is not falling

Comfort Zone Investing: No, the sky is not falling originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 28 Jun 2008 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

First Quarter GDP was revised to 0.9% up from the initial estimate of 0.6%. This was also up from the fourth-quarter GDP number of 0.6%. The increase was largely due to increased export growth with consumer spending up but quite anemic.

Initial jobless claims came in at 372,000 which were up from 368,000 from the prior week. However, this was still well below the 400,000 number often mentioned as associated with recessions.

These numbers indicate that it is likely that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession this year. The monetary easing from the Federal Reserve seems to be cushioning the downturn with businesses and the consumer. We are also seeing the positive aspect of a lower dollar with increased export growth. The fiscal stimulus will also be kicking in the economy as the rebate checks arrive in the mail.

Does this mean that the economy will start to rally? Not likely. The housing downturn continues and will act as a break on consumer spending. This has no quick fix and will take time to repair itself. The last housing crisis in the late 1980s and early 1990s took several years to be resolved. This time will not be any quicker.

Continue reading GDP and initial claims: No recession but the slowdown continues!

GDP and initial claims: No recession but the slowdown continues! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 29 May 2008 10:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The currency of our realm, the US Dollar, has been losing value for many years, but lately the results of this sad state of affairs have become increasingly more evident. Concerns are mounting on a global basis not just in the United States. The euro, once pegged at a buck, is now trading at $1.55, while gold has passed $1,000 and oil has continued its charge, breaking through the $110 per barrel mark.

While a good deal of this problem is home grown, the pain is being felt all around the world. We have read many stories about how the American economy is a smaller part of the global economy and becoming somewhat detached. This is nonsense. What has happened is that the global economy has become infinitely more integrated and like any integrated structure (the architect speaking), what occurs in one place is felt everywhere.

The Federal Reserve Board, led by Chairman Ben Bernanke, has been watching the economy in an extremely measured fashion, bordering on casual. To those who see beyond Bernanke's calm demeanor, one should imagine a stock trader of old, holding the ticker tape up to his eyes and monitoring every change, every blip in the market as the ticker tape machine clicks away, spewing out the latest market activity.

Continue reading Serious Money: The falling dollar creates global pain -- Part 1

Serious Money: The falling dollar creates global pain -- Part 1 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 13 Mar 2008 15:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Among the panel of 49 National Association for Business Economics economists surveyed between January 25 and February 13, about 45 percent said they believe a recession will have occurred by the end of this year," according to Reuters. Since many of these economists failed to foresee a slowing of growth, their forecast may be little different from flipping a coin. Being right half of the time is the likely outcome.

Economists appear to actually be optimists in disguise. It is hard to believe that the odds of a recession are less than 50%. The economy is producing no job growth. Home foreclosures and housing price erosion probably have forced large states like California, Michigan, and Florida into recession.The falling tax base will make it more difficult for cities and states to raise money.

Rising commodity prices are making food and oil more expensive. This, in turn, is hurting the alternative energy, automotive, retail, and airline sectors. Fast food and other restaurant operations are likely to be set back by the increasing cost of items like bread and milk. Banks are tight with money for businesses and private customers because their balance sheets are so poor. The lending market is beginning to lock up.

Most economists make a lot of money. They may not see what is going on around them with ordinary people. When a tough economy costs some of them their jobs, they may come around to a more realistic view.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallstreet.com.

Are economists too optimistic? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 25 Feb 2008 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

But Smith argues that high energy prices will hit economies around the world and that no region will be immune.

Smith's view of the impact of fuel prices may be distorted. FedEx is much more dependent on fuel prices for margins than most companies. In its last quarterly report, the company gave a muted view of the next few quarters. But transports are now a modest part of the worldwide GPD, so Smith may be looking at the problem from the wrong angle.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

FedEx chief says global economy in trouble originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 03 Dec 2007 10:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) announced stronger-than-expected earnings and hinted that the upcoming holiday shopping season will be strong. This is just another sign that the US economy is strong enough to withstand the subprime mess, rising commodity prices, and the general negativity portrayed by the mainstream media.

Haven't we been warned that consumer spending is going to tank, because of the effect of the subprime meltdown, and rising fuel prices will keep shoppers at home. Well Wal-Mart, which derives so much revenue from the very shoppers that are supposed to be staying at home due to rising fuel prices, said that they expect consumer spending to be higher than expected.

As I posted yesterday, the economy grew 3.9% last quarter and job creation continues to be strong. Imagine what the US economy is going to look like in another 6 months when the subprime shakeout will have little effect on economic growth. All the naysayers who think the economy is heading into a recession, aren't looking at the big picture. Growth is fine and will pick up in '08.

As soon as investors regain some perspective, and finish their tax-loss selling (which is a big contributor to the recent sell-off), I would expect a very strong stock market rebound, to last well into Q1 '08.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. He holds no position in any stock mentioned as of 11/13/07.

Wal-Mart beats: Another sign economy is strong originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Nov 2007 11:11:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The plan makes sense, at least on paper. GE (NYSE: GE) believes that it can offset any slowdown in its US business by the acceleration of revenue in China and India. It is, perhaps, one of the benefits of being a multinational.

The FT writes that, "GE's chairman and chief executive (Jeffrey Immelt) said the company's sales in emerging markets such as China and India were expanding at 20 percent a year, and there were few signs of this growth slowing."

But, GE's view is based on two assumptions that may not be true. The first is that a slowdown in the US will not spread to Asia and the Indian subcontinent. Much of the export income from China and India depends on demand in the US and Europe. if that demand slackens, there is no guarantee that their own economies will be able to continue growing rapidly.

GE is also assuming that growth in these countries, particularly China, will not come without a cost. Trade tensions between the US and the world's most populous country still exist. The China toy debacle demonstrates that. It would not take so terribly much for China to shut its markets to certain US goods and services, if it feels that it has been provoked.

GE's plan to keep growing outside the US looks good, for now.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wall st.com.

GE looks to China and India to balance US slowdown originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 29 Oct 2007 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Yesterday I was stunned to learn that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke had cut the Fed Funds rate 50 basis points to 4.75%. However, I had predicted that if he did cut the rate that much, the Dow would soar between 200 and 300 points. My high end estimate was 30 points too low.

What worried me the most about the cut was that the stated reason was pretty vague -- something about the risks to growth outweighing those to inflation -- and not supported by any numbers. Then I read this morning's New York Times [registration required] which suggested that at last month's Fed retreat in Jackson Hole, WY, economists presented economic forecasts based on the assumption that housing prices decline between 20% and 40% in the next several years.

I doubt the Fed's rate cut can do much to stop this problem -- although borrowing more money might delay the worst effects until the next president is in office. If this is the reason for the unexpectedly large interest rate cut, Fed officials should say so. While we have no power to decide interest rates, in a democracy I believe we at least have the right to know why those decisions are made.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Did Bernanke cut 50 basis points to stop a 40% housing price plunge? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 Sep 2007 07:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

US Treasury Secretary Paulson: US recession is preventable originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 16 Aug 2007 18:03:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

As a girl who considers herself hip to the news, from Main Street to Wall Street to pop culture, I'm always on the lookout for trends. And the past few days I think I've spotted one, which I like to call "Too MAD Money." It's a riff on Greenspan's irrational exuberance. Let's look at the factors:

• The U.S. economy has fallen with a thunk off the top of the World Economic Forum's competitiveness survey. Replacing the States from its perch atop the economic heap: Switzerland. The U.S. is now sixth and Switzerland was lauded for its efficient markets and "sound institutional environment."
• This must mean that the U.S. is not, indeed, sound, or efficient. At least, not so much as Switzerland, Finland, Sweden and Denmark. Zoinks! Crushed by those efficient northern Europeans.
• At the same time, the U.S. indices are nearly all-time highs.
• At the same time, the U.S. economy is showing signs of a coming slowdown.
• And then, I read this headline: "Mad Money ... Mad Market." Albert Phung from Investopedia argues that Jim Cramer's famous "effect" is proof that the U.S. market does not behave efficiently. And suddenly, it all makes sense.

It's all Cramer's fault. Well, it's not really Cramer who's causing the irrationality and inefficiency, but his audience and the media types who fuel him. Because of the dozens of web sites who eagerly track his recommendations (as she puts her face in her hands, looking at her own blog), because of the millions who eagerly buy his recommended "Booyah Buys" and sell the ones which "don't have legs." Because of the endless promotion of some testosterone-fueled market-watcher by the CNBC engine and countless others. Because of you, who clicked on this link...

It's all our fault. We did this! Now get out there and buy rationally, people!

U.S. losing competitiveness to Switzerland: is our money too 'Mad'? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 27 Sep 2006 17:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Housing bubble, debt bubble or same thing?

Housing bubble, debt bubble or same thing? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 Aug 2006 14:14:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.