American Express (AXP) followed in Visa's (V) steps and announced a digital payment and commerce platform dubbed Serve, which enables the consumers to make purchases and person-to-person payments online via mobile phones and at merchants that accept American Express cards. MasterCard (MA) is also planning to launch its own offering for personal payments.

We estimate that American Express derives 73% of our $49.61 price estimate from card transaction and execution fees while Visa derives almost 29% of its $85.03 Trefis price estimate from transaction fees.

It seems inevitable that our smartphones will become our wallets. After all, they have become a key part of our lives. And smartphones have the power to carry out secure and sophisticated transactions.

As is no surprise, many companies are scrambling to be winners in the e-wallet space. Take American Express (AXP). The company has launched a new e-wallet called Serve.

When it comes to credit-card businesses, I'm partial to Visa, Inc. (V). Even so, I have to give my respect today to Discover Financial Services (DFS). At the time of this writing, the stock was up 4.5% to $23.26. Volume was strong. Furthermore, a new 52-week high of $23.46 was recorded earlier in the day (by the time this is published, it's possible the high quote will be different).

The stock has been a good holding over the last twelve months. The 52-week low is $12.11, and the one-year chart shows strength. This name is heading for a double. Is it too late to buy?

Founded in 1950, New York-based American Express (AXP) is a leading global financial services company offering card payment products and travel-related services to consumers and businesses across the globe. It is now the third largest player in the US in terms of card transaction volumes, after Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA). It also competes with other financial institutions that have credit card services like Discover Financial (DFS)and Capital One (COF).

What differentiates American Express from MasterCard and Visa is its relatively more affluent customer base, which it maintains by offering generous benefits and reward programs. Since American Express brings higher spending consumers to merchants, it can charge a higher commission (known as the interchange fee) on sales. Also, unlike Visa and MasterCard, American Express only issues charge and credit card products but not debit cards, which have been gaining widespread acceptance over the past couple of years. With these critical differences in mind, we explore the opportunities that lie ahead for American Express in an evolving macroeconomic environment.

Our price estimate is $47.16, which is just slightly higher than the current market price.

Impact of Regulatory Reforms

The Obama Administration in February 2010 passed the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure Act, or the CARD Act which enforces more disclosure about interest rates, caps on service fees, grace periods and also makes it difficult for people under the age of 21 to obtain cards. All this is expected to negatively impact the growth in the number of cards in use but lead to lower net write-off rates and defaults by card members.

The Durbin Amendment, enacted in July 2010, granted the Fed the power to control the levels of this fee. In December, the Fed enforced one such limit - 12 cents per debit card transaction. While this adversely affects the two largest card payments-processing networks Visa and MasterCard, which also issue debit cards, we believe it presents upside opportunity for American Express as credit cards would gain prominence over debit cards, at least from the issuers' end.

Improving Economic Conditions

The macroeconomic conditions are improving in the US, albeit at a slow pace. The unemployment levels are still close to historical high levels but on a downward slope, declining from 9.8% in November 2010 to 9.4% in December 2010. Consumer spending has picked up and so have the corresponding card transactions.

Household purchases, which constitute about 70% of the economy, grew at 4.4% in December 2010, the highest since the first quarter of 2006.American Express' card delinquency rates (the proportion of outstanding balances past the due date to total balances) continues to decline month on month to 2.1% from 2.5% in the previous quarter. Charge-offs (the loans deemed uncollectible and hence, written-off) also declined from 5.2% to 4.4% over the same period. Improvements in macroeconomic conditions hint at more relaxed card-issuing criteria and higher credit limits.

If spending increases more than we currently forecast, this could improve our price estimate. Drag the trend line in the modifiable chart above to see the impact. For example, a 5% increase in annual spending in 2012 per customer translates to around a 2% improvement in our price estimate.

See our estimates for American Express.

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Let's take a quick look at two companies that posted quarterly reports. One makes its money from plastic (the kind you use to buy things), the other serves pizza, poultry, and tacos to the masses.

Visa, Inc. (V) has not been a great stock this year. Its 52-week low is $64.90 and its 52-week high is $97.19. The stock closed today's regular session at $72.09, backed by unremarkable volume. I don't know, maybe I'm way off, but I think this name should be at least a little closer to the 52-week high. On a related note, the one-year chart is not what shareholders want to see.

Are credit card rates too high? The answer is a resounding YES! The Federal Reserve just gave the banks $600 billion in cash in the form of a second round of quantitative easing. What are they doing with it? Raising the rates on credit cards, of course, so they can turn that $600 billion into $1.2 trillion in four years.

You are probably wondering how they are doing this. It's very simple. If you use the rule of 72s, at 18%, money doubles itself every four years (you divide 72 by the rate of interest).

Analyst Upgrades

• Oracle (ORCL) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• Accenture (ACN) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Advanced Energy (AEIS) and Applied Materials (AMAT) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Spreadtrum (SPRD) to buy from hold at Auriga.
• Healthcare Realty Trust (HR) and Tortoise Energy Capital (TYY) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Global Payments (GPN) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• CBS (CBS) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Sonic (SONC) to outperform from neutral at Cowen.

The earnings crunch continues this week, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are anticipating lots of strong quarterly reports.

For example, year-over-year earnings growth from big oil Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), ExxonMobil (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are expected to be in double digits. The same is true of many other energy and mining concerns reporting this week: Allegheny Technologies (ATI), Alliant Energy (LNT), Arch Coal (ACI), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), CMS Energy (CMS), CONSOL Energy (CNX), DPL (DPL), Hess Corp. (HES), Minerals Technologies (MTX), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), PPL Corp. (PPL), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Total (TOT), Whiting Petroleum (WLL), Williams Companies (WMB) and Wisconsin Energy (WEC).

"Credit card demand has exploded in recent years. Today, credit cards are responsible for over $2.5 trillion in transactions each year," notes Ian Wyatt.

The editor of Top Stock Insights explains, "And no company is better positioned to capture the digital transaction market than Visa (V); further, investors have a window of opportunity right now to pick up shares at a great price.

"Different from credit card-issuers, Visa is shielded from the consumer credit troubles (such as delinquencies and defaults) because they don't lend to consumers.

Discover Financial Services (DFS) is trading higher this afternoon after the credit-card entity reported numbers for the fiscal third quarter. At the time of this writing, the stock was up 2.4% to $15.95. Volume was very strong.

The shares have traded in a narrow range over the last twelve months. The 52-week low is $12.11 while the 52-week high is $17.36. The chart shows a nice trading vehicle for those who like to buy and sell on a short-term basis.

Analyst Upgrades

• Goldman upgraded Costco (COST) to buy from neutral based on valuation, improving fundamentals and potential catalysts. The firm raised its price target to $68 from $62.
• Soleil upgraded MGM Resorts (MGM) to buy from hold, citing valuation, easing balance sheet concerns and a multiyear convention recovery. The firm upped its target for shares to $14 from $13. Note, Soleil also downgraded Las Vegas Sands (LVS) to hold from buy.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Phillips-Van Heusen (PVH) to overweight from neutral with a $59 price target following the company's better-than-expected Q2 results.
• Dell (DELL) was upgraded to buy from outperform at CLSA.
• CommScope (CTV) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
• EnCana (ECA) was upgraded to sector outperformer from sector performer at CIBC.