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What happened to ethanol?

This post was writtenby Minyanville contributor Ryan Krueger.

Looks like Verasun Energy Corp. (NYSE: VSE), a formerly popular ethanol stock and second largest producer, has won court permission to cancel contracts signed to purchase corn. It is now in bankruptcy. I'm also hearing about a lot of excess ethanol funded by your tax dollars being sold to other countries. That worked out well.

The mistaken policy and debates are endless, the trades are what I am chewing on instead. I think consumers of corn at lower prices are set up for some awfully tasty '09 comparisons for their bottom lines. Corn Products International, Inc. (NYSE: CPO), after Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) backed away from its take-over, is a name I have re-entered from the long side after closing out my position just after the non-merger was announced and shares traded twice what they are now. They sweeten something you'll eat or drink in the next hour.

Longer term, however, I am even more interested in the ingredients, not the end products. But it's still early. I have been long gone from 2008 corn contracts for quite some time, but am starting to poke around out on the futures curve. On the same day this court ruling was announced abolishing artificial demand, quiet real demand emerged as Mexico was a big buyer of corn.

I'll take a few billion eaters over several million drivers any day.

Closing Bell: Stocks end mixed ahead of election; BA, SIRI, STEM, VSE, WFMI

Crummy economic data from October ISM Manufacturing and September Construction Spending didn't manage to kill overseas gains that led to more mixed rallying in U.S. equity markets. Ahead of tomorrow's elections, it seems that the markets are just going into a holding pattern. U.S. auto sales were atrocious.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
DJIA: 9,319.83 -5.18 -0.06%
NASDAQ: 1,726.33 +5.38 +0.31%
S&P 500: 966.30 -2.45 -0.25%
Top Analyst Upgrades

Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) had its 27,000 union machine workers start returning to their jobs this weekend after a 57-day labor strike that shut down production of its jet manufacturing operations. The stock was up 1.3% at $53.12 in today's final minutes.

SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) was down almost 9% at $0.30 right before the close. A class action suit was filed by a holder who has joined with over 500 shareholders to oust management and to protect holders by keeping the company from being taken private or from a reverse split.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Stocks end mixed ahead of election; BA, SIRI, STEM, VSE, WFMI

Verasun goes Chapter 11

Maybe ethanol is not such a good business after all. Stocks in the sectors were really darlings of the market a year ago. Now oil prices are back down and the price of corn is up, although not as much as it was in mid-summer.

One of the two or three largest ethanol companies in the U.S., Verasun (NYSE: VSE) is filing for Chapter 11. According to The Wall Street Journal, "VeraSun made bad bets on the corn market over the summer as grain prices reached record highs."

Shares in the firm traded as high as $17.75 late last year. They had dropped to $0.34.

The entire industry may face a restructuring now. It had built a tremendous infrastructure of new plants and shipping facilities assuming that ethanol would be "the next big thing" in the global fuel business. Corn prices moved up because farmers could not produce enough for food and fuel.

The real giant in the industry is ADM (NYSE: ADM). It has moved up from a 52-week low of $13.53 to almost $21.00. The Verasun news could move the shares south again.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

Closing Bell: Dow slides as big bulls reverse course; AAPL, CPST up big

Today was somewhat tiring -- there was no real direction and the media was competing for any broad stories with meat to them. Selling picked up at the end of the day and broke a three-day run. The US trade deficit came in narrower than expected and oil prices came down another $1.00+ to well under $114 per barrel. While there was more negative news in financial stocks, today's drumming may have been more analyst driven than on other days where large drops were seen. As you will see, bond yields came down sharply today.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
DJIA 11,642.47 (-1.19%)
S&P500 1,289.59 (-1.20%)
NASDAQ 2.430.61 (-0.38%)
10 YR T-Note 3.918% (-0.08%)
Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) rose on two separate analyst calls. It was started as "Outperform" in news coverage at Credit Suisse and Lehman Brothers also reiterated an "Outperform" rating. Shares were up almost 25 at $176.48 in today's final minutes.

Capstone Turbine Corp. (NASDAQ: CPST) managed to rack up gains despite fears over cautious earnings. The company had a single order that accounted for this and racked up another gain to its backlog. Shares were up 7.5% at $2.61 in today's final minutes. Here are the Q&A comments from the conference call.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Dow slides as big bulls reverse course; AAPL, CPST up big

Analyst upgrades: UAUA, WPPGY, AVR and VSE

MOST NOTEWORTHY: UAL Corp, WPP Group, Aventine Renewable and VeraSun Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • JP Morgan upgraded UAL Corp (NASDAQ: UAUA) to Overweight from Neutral based on valuation and expectations for the company to make a capital announcement on next week's conference call.
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of WPP Group (NASDAQ: WPPGY) to Buy from Hold as they believe the company's diversification will lead to low earnings volatility.
  • UBS upgraded Aventine Renewable (NYSE: AVR) and VeraSun Energy (NYSE: VSE) to Buy from Neutral based on expectations for margin improvements following recent corn price declines.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan and to Neutral from Underperform at Merrill.
  • Wachovia raised Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) to Outperform from Market Perform.
  • Entergy (NYSE: ETR) was lifted to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.

Earnings highlights: Lehman, UBS, Krispy Kreme, Pepsico, Pep Boys and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Lehman, UBS, Krispy Kreme, Pepsico, Pep Boys and others

Barron's sees ethanol stocks poised for a rebound

While many of us may think that ethanol companies are not a reliable investment, Barron's asks us to reconsider our thoughts, pointing out to a bright futures for those stocks. People's worries about ethanol companies came as a result of soaring crude oil prices. Thus, the general tendency was to use corn-based alcohol as a substitute for gasoline. The negative reaction was an immediate consequence, and a top official of the United Nations has named ethanol as a "crime against a great part of humanity" as it lead to higher food costs.

Barron's points out three ethanol producers, VeraSun Energy Corp. (NYSE: VSE), Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR), and Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX), which faced difficult time over the past year, although they saw a nice rebound recently after reporting first-quarter operating profits, and Congress passed a farm bill.

Looking ahead, the companies showed optimism related to their further production based on projected 2009 capacity. This takes into account the completion of plants under construction when talking about Aventine and VeraSun. Thus, VeraSun has a projected production of 1.6 billion gallons, Aventine came with 433 million, while Pacific Ethanol has a projected production of 220 million.

Continue reading Barron's sees ethanol stocks poised for a rebound

Analyst initiations: U.S. retail hardlines, biofuels, IPG and OMC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The U.S. Retail Hardlines Sector, the BioFuels Sector, Interpublic Group and Omnicom Group were today's noteworthy initiations:
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Morgan Stanley assumed coverage of International Flavors (NYSE: IFF) with an Overweight rating.
  • Wachovia initiated CGI Group (NYSE: GIB) with a Market Perform rating.
  • Leap Wireless (LEAP) was initiated at RBC Capital with a Sector Perform rating and $55 target.

Analyst downgrades: FBCM, ALTU and EDPFY

MOST NOTEWORTHY: FBR Capital Markets, Altus Pharmaceuticals and Energias de Portugal were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Jefferies downgraded shares of FBR Capital Markets (NASDAQ: FBCM) to Hold from Buy and lowered their target to $9 from $14 as they believe the company's investment banking activity will continue to be limited due to the current market conditions for capital raising.
  • Wachovia downgraded shares of Altus Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ALTU) to Market Perform from Outperform following Genentech's (NYSE: DNA) return of all North American marketing rights to ALTU-238.
  • Energias de Portugal (OTC: EDPFY) was lowered to Hold from Buy at Citigroup, as they see no valuation catalysts in the near-term.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • JP Morgan removed Teekay LNG (NYSE: TGP) from its Focus List.
  • Goldman downgraded ORIX Corp. (NYSE: IX) to Neutral from Buy.
  • Friedman Billings downgraded VeraSun Energy (NYSE: VSE) to Market Perform from Outperform.

Analyst upgrades: ABH, ZUMZ and VSE

MOST NOTEWORTHY: AbitibiBowater, Zumiez and VeraSun Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • RBC Capital upgraded AbitibiBowater (NYSE:ABH) to Outperform from Sector Perform and said capacity reductions were double what they expected.
  • Susquehanna upgraded Zumiez (NASDAQ:ZUMZ) to Positive from Neutral based on solid underlying business trends.
  • Soleil raised its rating on VeraSun Energy (NYSE:VSE) to Hold from Sell, as they are positive on the merger with US BioEnergy (NASDAQ:USBE).
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Goldman upgraded the U.S. steel sector to Attractive from Neutral and upgraded Olympic Steel (NASDAQ:ZEUS) to Buy from Neutral.
  • The firm also added Nucor (NYSE:NUE) to its Conviction Buy List.
  • Varian Semi (NASDAQ:VSEA) was raised to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.

Option update: Ethanol producers volatility up as shares at record lows

Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ: PEIX), the largest West Coast-based marketer and producer of ethanol, closed at $4.64 on Tuesday. Goldman Sachs said on November 27: "We are adding PEIX to the Americas Sell List, as we believe that ethanol equities will continue to lag the energy sector and broader stock market." PEIX overall option implied volatility of 75 is above its 26-week average of 50 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

VeraSun Energy (NYSE: VSE) operates as an ethanol producer. VSE closed at $10.14 on Tuesday. Friedman Billings says: "Sources tell us House staff hope to complete draft energy legislation today with hopes of a Floor vote next week. Proposed RFS increases exceed existing expectations for near-year corn ethanol legislative demand increases." VSE overall option implied volatility of 64 is above its 26-week average of 53 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR) a producer, marketer and end-to-end distributor of ethanol. Corn futures are down 0.56% to 398.50 and WTI Crude futures are at 94.48 according to Bloomberg. AVR overall option implied volatility of 75 is above its 26-week average of 57 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Daily Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Newspaper wrap-up: Demand slows for ethanol, forcing up food prices

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) recently received an unexpected call from a "prominent investment banker" inquiring about a merger with Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC); it was rejected outright, and Citi instead turned to the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, a part of the Abu Dhabi government, for a $7.5B cash infusion, the Wall Street Journal reported.
  • As ethanol demands forced up food prices, and with questions about its capacity to be a significant oil substitute, demand has slowed, according to the Wall Street Journal, which doesn't help the prospects of newly public companies such as VeraSun Energy Corporation (NYSE: VSE) and Pacific Ethanol Inc (NASDAQ: PEIX).
  • The Financial Times reported that the SRM hedge fund increased its stake in British bank Northern Rock to 8.5% yesterday, probably in order to block Virgin Group from taking over the lender. SRM and RAB Capital, with a combined stake in Northern Rock of more than 15%, are backing a rival bid for the bank by British private equity fund Oilvant.
OTHER PAPERS:
WEB SITES:
  • MarketWatch's Herb Greenberg believes Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ: LULU) CEO Bob Meers may have "exaggerated a bit" about his job history. While it's true Mr. Meers was employed by Reebok International, he was not president and CEO of the brand for the length of time he stated, nor was he the president of the Rockport shoe and Greg Norman brands.

Analyst downgrades: CLAY, PDGI, RBS, PGIC and WSFS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Clayton, PharmaNet Development, Royal Bank of Scotland, Progressive Gaming and WSFS Financial were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • JMP Securities downgraded shares of Clayton Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: CLAY) to Market Perform from Outperform citing lack of visibility in the non-agency MBS market. William Blair also downgraded shares to Market Perform from Outperform after the company's in-line quarter, to reflect lowered estimates and uncertainty regarding a recovery time.
  • Jefferies downgraded shares of PharmaNet Development Group Inc (NASDAQ: PDGI) to Hold from Buy as they believe departures of board and management executives have introduced new risk.
  • The Royal Bank of Group PLC (NYSE: RBS) was lowered to Sell from Buy at Citigroup, as they are negative on the company's acquisition of ABN Amro Holding NV (NYSE: ABN).
  • ThinkEquity downgraded shares of Progressive Gaming International Corporation (NASDAQ: PGIC) to Accumulate from Buy following Friday's announcement that it lost its post-trial motions and will proceed to appeals court in the Webb lawsuit. PGIC will have to post a $20M bond, which is more than the firm expected.
  • B. Riley downgraded shares of WSFS Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: WSFS) to Neutral from Buy after they lowered their estimates to reflect the company's higher projected on-interest expense.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst upgrades: LNCR, GTIV, FVE, ARRS and X

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lincare Holdings, Gentiva Health, Five Star Quality Care, Arris and U.S. Steel Group were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Jefferies upgraded shares of Lincare Holdings (NASDAQ: LNCR) to Buy from Hold on valuation as they now believe the likelihood that Congress could severely cut Medicare oxygen reimbursement this year is priced into shares.
  • Jefferies also upgraded Gentiva Health (NASDAQ: GTIV) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they believe the recent sell-off is overdone.
  • RBC Capital raised Five Star Quality Care (AMEX: FVE) to Outperform from Sector Perform, as they believe the company's Q3 report could be better than expected and that census and outlook are improving.
  • CIBC upgraded shares of Arris Group (NASDAQ: ARRS) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer on valuation as they believe the weakness in the stock is overdone.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) to Buy from Hold, as they expect the company to be a major beneficiary of rising raw material costs. Further, Deutsche thinks Lone Star and Stelco will be catalysts for earnings growth in 2008.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst downgrades: Ethanol sector, BT, AMR and KYPH

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The ethanol sector, BT Group, AMR Corp and Kyphon were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Friedman Billings downgraded Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR) and Pacific Ethanol Inc (NASDAQ: PEIX) to Underperform and VeraSun Energy Corporation (NYSE: VSE) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform. The firm said the ethanol market has become increasingly challenging as spot market prices have declined by 30% in the past few months and expect pressure to remain through 2008 as the industry's growing pains continue.
  • Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of BT Group (NYSE: BT) to Underweight from Equal Weight on valuation and regulation uncertainty ahead of Ofcom's first consultation document next week.
  • AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman to reflect the company's U.S. exposure as they expect the U.S. economy to slow.
  • Banc of America downgraded shares of Kyphon Inc (NASDAQ: KYPH) to Neutral from Buy on valuation as the spread on the acquisition by Medtronic Inc (NYSE: MDT) has now narrowed.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

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DJIA+203.5210,226.94
NASDAQ+41.622,154.06
S&P 500+23.781,093.08

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 03:00 AM

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