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URS Corp. (URS): Forbes quant eyes infrastructure stimulus

This post is part of a special report, A Dozen Ways to Play an Obama Building Boom.

"URS Corp. (NYSE: URS) provides engineering, construction, and technical services to a wide range of markets," says quantitative analyst Vahan Janjigian.

In The Forbes Growth Investor, he adds, "There is increased speculation that the federal government will enact a stimulus package containing substantial spending on infrastructure; as a leader in federally-funded projects, URS could benefit significantly."

"The U.S. was responsible for 91% of first half 2008 revenues with the remainder derived from various global markets. URS operates three divisions. The Washington division was responsible for 41.2% of first half sales.

"Acquired last November, its primary markets are energy and power. The URS division,which generated 35.4% of first half sales, serves the commercial, industrial, environmental, facilities, homeland security, transportation, water/waste water, and specialty markets.

"Customers include federal, state and local governments, and private enterprises, such as nuclear energy and mining companies, chemical and drug makers, and oil and gas firms.

Continue reading URS Corp. (URS): Forbes quant eyes infrastructure stimulus

Sara Lee (SLE): A buy for tough times

"Even in tough economic times, Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) should fair well thanks to its offering of non-cyclical goods," says quantitative analyst Vahan Janjigian, editor of The Forbes Growth Investor.

"Sara Lee is a leading producer of branded foods, beverages, and personal care products. Roughly 50% of sales are generated outside of the U.S. Leading brands include Ball Park, Hillshire Farm, Jimmy Dean, Sara Lee, State Fair, Earth Grains, and Senseo brand coffee products.

"Management launched a comprehensive restructuring plan in 2005 to focus on core products and maximize operating efficiencies. These actions yielded $218 million in annualized cost savings in fiscal 2008.

"Food commodity costs soared earlier this year. However, SLE has been able to pass costs to customers through price increases. Furthermore, it has benefited from growing volumes. Fiscal Q4 net sales grew 12.2% year-over-year to $3.5 billion.

"With its earnings announcement, management issued fiscal 2009 guidance. It expects net sales to grow 4-6% year-over-year to $13.7-14 billion and pro forma earnings to grow 8-18% to 90-98 cents per share.

"Since issuing guidance, economic conditions have deteriorated significantly. This could lead to increased trading down activity to lower-priced brands or private-label goods.

"Also, the strengthening dollar has turned the foreign exchange tailwind into a headwind. Yet food commodity and energy costs have fallen significantly, which could provide margin relief for the company."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

PepsiAmericas (PAS) Forbes quant offers bottling bet

This post is one of six articles on beverage-related stocks. Here are five other investment ideas to sip on.

"PepsiAmericas (NYSE: PAS) is the world's second-largest bottler of PepsiCo beverages," notes Vahan Janjigan, noted quantitative analyst and editor of the industry-leading The Forbes Growth Investor.

"PepsiAmerica's is 44% owned by PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP). Brands licensed from PepsiCo accounted for 90% of 2007 sales. The U.S. was responsible for 70% of first half 2008 sales.

"This territory consists of 19 states mostly in the Midwest. Pepsi, Mountain Dew, and Aquafina are top brands in the U.S. Central and Eastern Europe generated 25% of sales. Markets include Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia.

"The U.S.is a mature market with limited growth opportunities and has presented special challenges in recent years as consumers shy away from traditional carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) in favor of non-carbonated soft drinks and energy drinks.

"This evolution has opened the door to boutique beverage companies, allowing them to grab market share from the traditional players.

"More recently, the U.S.has been hampered with a slowing economy. Of course, raw material costs have been soaring everywhere. By raising prices,management has boosted profitability at the expense of sales.

"At the same time, it is investing in growth abroad. It took a 60% stake in Sandora, a juice company in Ukraine, enhancing the company's ability to supply markets in Belarus, Azerbaijan, Russia, and other East European and Central Asian countries.

"Second quarter net sales increased 11.8% to $1.34 billion, with 8.7 percentage points coming from acquisitions. Price increases offset a decline in volume. Higher ingredient costs depressed the gross profit margin by 68 basis points to 40.78%.

"However, strong expense controls boosted the pro forma operating profit margin by 21 basis points to 12.35%. Pro forma net income jumped 21% to $90.9 million or 72 cents per share.

"A weak economy, changing consumer preferences, and competition could hurt sales volumes. Indeed, despite a recent gain in market share for CSDs in the Midwest, management expects U.S.volumes to fall through the second half of 2008. Full-year adjusted revenues should grow 13-14%.

"Earnings should rise 16-18%. Expansion in Europe should support growth through 2010. PepsiCo and CocaCola branded products account for roughly 25% of the highly fragmented beverage market in Central and Eastern Europe. This is a market ripe for consolidation. It provides a rich pipeline of acquisition candidates."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

American Oriental (AOB): Forbes quant eyes Chinese medicine

Leading quantitative analyst Vahan Janjigian looks to American Oriental Bioengineering (NYSE: AOB), a maker of Chinese traditional medicines, among his latest featured stocks.

In his The Forbes Growth Investor, the advisor explains, "This market has enjoyed significant growth over the past several years due to several favorable trends." Here's his review.

"American Oriental Bioengineering is a pharmaceutical company that specializes in manufacturing and marketing plant-based traditional Chinese medicines (TCM) in China.

"Plant-based pharmaceuticals (PBP),which generated 82% of Q1 sales, are medicinal compounds derived from the leaves and roots of plants. These products, which are approved by the Chinese State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA), are used to treat various illnesses.

"The Chinese pharmaceutical market has enjoyed significant growth over the past several years due to several favorable trends.

Continue reading American Oriental (AOB): Forbes quant eyes Chinese medicine

Book review: Even Buffett Isn't Perfect

With all the books that have been written about Warren Buffett, Vahan Janjigian's Even Buffett Isn't Perfect: What You Can -- and Can't -- Learn from the World's Greatest Investor seems like the only one left that could generate any interest. Suggesting that Buffett isn't perfect is similar to accusing Mother Teresa of war crimes.

Unfortunately, the most serious imperfection that Janjigian uncovers is right on the cover: Buffett's complexion is pasty, his eyebrows could use a good waxing, and he could stand to hit up Procter & Gamble for a couple boxes of Crest Whitestrips.

Like most books on Buffett, this one explains his methodology -- buy easy to understand business and hold forever -- and then, somewhat uniquely, tries to poke holes in some of his ideas. The problem is that most of those holes relate to Buffett's philosophies, but most have nothing to do with the way he manges Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A). There's a lengthy discussion of what the author thinks Buffett is wrong about the estate tax, and he also questions Buffett's insistence that stock options should be expensed upon issuance -- but are those really the ideas that people look to Buffett for?

Continue reading Book review: Even Buffett Isn't Perfect

Owens-Illinois (OI): Eco-friendly gains in glass

"Glass is also more eco-friendly than other materials, benefiting Owens-Illinois (NYSE: OI), the world's largest supplier of glass containers," says quantitiative analyst Vahan Janjigian, editor of The Forbes Growth Investor.

"The company's bottles are used for beer, wine, liquor, tea, juice, food, and pharmaceuticals. Major customers include Anheuser-Busch, SAB Miller, Molson Coors, Diageo, PepsiCo, H.J. Heinz, and Heineken.

"Glass containers offer several advantages over alternatives such as aluminum and plastic. They preserve purity and flavor, they are infinitely recyclable, and there is no shortage of raw materials.

"Glass is also cost-efficient for the customer, which is particularly important in developing countries where containers are often reused and refilled 30-50 times before being recycled.

Continue reading Owens-Illinois (OI): Eco-friendly gains in glass

Brightpoint (CELL) shines for Forbes quant

"On the strength of two key acquisitions, Brightpoint (NASDAQ: CELL) has become the largest global distributor of wireless devices," says quantitative analyst Vahan Janjigian of Forbes Growth Investor.

"The acquisitons helped boost the number of wireless products handled in 2007 by 55% to 83 million. The company is also the leading provider of customized logistics services to the wireless industry.

"CELL purchases cell phones, batteries, chargers, and memory cards, and then sells them to a global network of 25,000 customers.

"The objective is to acquire distribution rights to products offering the greatest potential for growth. It sells brands made by LG Electronics, Nokia, Kyocera, Motorola, Samsung, Sony, Siemens, and Ericsson. This category produced 92% of total 2007 revenues, but it had a gross profit margin of just 4.24%.

Continue reading Brightpoint (CELL) shines for Forbes quant

Sohu.com (SOHU): Forbes expert sees online gains in China

Sohu.com (NASDAQ: SOHU), an Internet media provider in China, is a recent featured addition to the aggressive growth portfolio of Vahan Janjigian.

The leading quantitative analyst and editor of The Forbes Growth Report explains, "Long-term growth is also promising as Internet usage expands in China." Here is the advisor's review.

"Sohu offers media content from more than 1,600 partners through 35 interest-specific channels, which cover news, business, sports, and entertainment. The website also offers tools such as free email accounts, web logs (blogs), message boards, and picture galleries.

"SOHU also runs Sogou.com, a proprietary Internet search engine; Chinaren.com, the largest online youth community in China boasting more than 80 million users; 17173.com, which provides information about online video games and has alliances with thousands of Internet cafes; and Focus.cn, a real estate website.

Continue reading Sohu.com (SOHU): Forbes expert sees online gains in China

Forbes quant banks on Citigroup (C)

"Although I remain bearish on the economy for the time being, I am turning more bullish on stocks," says Vahan Janjigian, editor of The Forbes Growth Investor.

He adds, "I believe stocks have fallen enough to be attractive to all investors except those with very short horizons. And my recommendation for Citigroup (NYSE: C) conveys my conviction that some of the best opportunities for long-term gains will come from the oversold financial sector."

"There is much debate about whether or not a recession is coming. In my view, it has already arrived. But whether or not it's an 'official' recession is largely irrelevant. The Federal Reserve is obviously so alarmed it has slashed interest rates at a record-breaking pace

"With more than 300,000 employees serving 200 million accounts in over 100 countries, Citigroup is a financial
services supermarket. But the collapse of the subprime mortgage market erased about $125 billion from the
company's market capitalization.

"Many financial institutions got burned by the subprime mortgage meltdown. Banks holding mortgage backed
securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO) were particularly hard hit. Citigroup suffered massive writedowns.

Continue reading Forbes quant banks on Citigroup (C)

Best Stocks for 2008: Forbes quant picks A. Schulman (SHLM)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"My top conservative idea for 2008 is A. Schulman (NASDAQ: SHLM), which makes high-performance plastic resins and compounds that are used by customers to produce everything from pens to artificial turf," says quantitative analyst Vahan Janjigian, editor of The Forbes Growth Investor.

"Almost three-fourths of fiscal 2007 sales (ended August 31) were generated from outside of North America. The firm makes resins that give plastics a specific color or physical property, such as conductivity.

"Its polyolefins units makes products such as interior trims for automobiles, toys, and office supplies and its engineered compounds division helps products maintain specific characteristics such as heat resistance, electrical conductivity, and high strength-to-weight ratios.

"SHLM is recovering from a difficult fiscal year. Management started several strategic initiatives to put profitability back on track. Most of these efforts focused on improving profitability in North America. Business units were reorganized with the aim of cutting costs.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Forbes quant picks A. Schulman (SHLM)

Best Stocks for 2008: Kinetic Concepts (KCI) advances wound care

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"My top speculative idea for 2008 is Kinetic Concepts (NYSE: KCI), which makes products for advanced wound care and other therapeutic applications," says quantitative analyst Vahan Janjigian, editor of The Forbes Growth Investor.

"KCI's therapeutic categories include advanced products for wound care and tissue repair, which accounted for 79% of first half 2007 revenues.

"The company's proprietary Vacuum Assisted Closure (VAC) technology uses negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) to treat and promote healing in acute and chronic wounds caused by severe trauma, failed surgical closures, amputations, and serious pressure ulcers.

"VAC systems consist of a pump that provides a controlled level of negative pressure to the wound, foam dressings, occlusive drapes and specialized canisters that collect body fluids, filter odors, and facilitate the safe disposal of medical waste.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Kinetic Concepts (KCI) advances wound care

Corning (GLW): Forbes Growth sees a 'return to profits'

"After several challenging years, Corning (NYSE: GLW) has returned to profitability," notes leading quantitative analyst Vahan Janjigian in The Forbes Growth Investor.

Corning, he notes, makes glass and ceramic products for high technology applications. Its largest segment, Display Technologies, makes glass substrates for liquid crystal displays (LCDs), which are used in notebook computers, desktop monitors, LCD televisions, and other consumer products.

IN addition, he points out, the telecom segment makes optical fiber and cable used for Internet and cable television services. And its environmental segment makes ceramic substrates and filters for emission and pollution control systems in gasoline and diesel engines.

Continue reading Corning (GLW): Forbes Growth sees a 'return to profits'

Three bets on the 787 Dreamliner

With Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) having now showcased its new 787 Dreamliner, investors might wonder if it is too late to invest. According to three newsletter advisors, there are still upside opportunities. One looks at Boeing itself, one spots value in an aircraft seat and interior designer, and one looks at an aircraft leasing play.

Boeing is a buy for longer-term investors from Bernie Schaeffer, who recommends the shares in his Power Stocks advisory.

Technically, the advisor notes that Boeing recently broke out after a lengthy sideways consolidation. From mid-November 2006 to the middle of last month, he points out that the stock traded in a narrow range between $85 and $92. He explains, "Such long periods of sideways movement can be followed by extended trends."

That level, he now says, should hold as support and should serve as a "foundation for higher prices." Further, he adds, the stock's rise above $100 is "psychologically significant" and should offer additional support for the stock.

The contrarian advisor notes, "Even with the strong fundamental and technical backdrop, Wall Street remains fairly pessimistic. According to Zacks, nine of the 18 analysts rate the stock a 'hold' or worse and three of those have a 'strong sell' rating on it. Any upgrades or upward price target revisions from this skeptical crowd could boost the stock."

Meanwhile, he maintains a target price for the stock is $127 a share. In addition to investing in Boeing itself, there are two ancillary companies that couldl benefit from the success of the Dreamliner.

Continue reading Three bets on the 787 Dreamliner

Hasbro: Licensing rights 'tranform' profits

Boosted by its licensing rights and marketing agreements for such characters as Spider-Man, Fantastic Four and Transformers, quantitative analyst Vahan Janjigian recommends toy maker Hasbro (NYSE: HAS).

The editor of The Forbes Growth Investor says, "Hasbro has done an outstanding job of selecting licensing opportunities," noting that licensing agreements with Lucas Licensing and Marvel Entertainment give Hasbro rights to develop toys based on Star Wars movies and Marvel comic books.

The Marvel deal, he notes, provides an excellent example. Janjigian says, "Its numerous comic book characters, some of which are more than 40 years old, offer plenty of potential for future sales, especially as more of them make it onto the big screen."

He states, "A renewed focus on core brands and licensed merchandise has led to strong results in the past year. First quarter net revenues surged 33.6% year-over-year to $625.3 million."

Spider-Man branded merchandise, he observes, which benefited from the release of the movie Spider-Man 3, was responsible for more than half of the growth in volume.

The recent opening of Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, he adds, could translate into brisk toy sales in the second quarter. Indeed, he forecasts, with seven films based on Marvel properties projected to be released over the next two years, Hasbro's prospects look "extremely promising."

Further, he says, "Hasbro should also benefit from the much hyped Transformers film." In fact, he notes, licensing revenues should receive a boost from the more than 230 Transformers-related agreements entered into by third-parties expecting to capitalize on the film.

He explains, "Transformers could signal more movie opportunities for HAS owned properties, which may further boost brand awareness and toy sales. Indeed, a G.I. Joe movie is already in the works."

The advisor concludes, "And let's not forget the company's more traditional products. The company has some of the most recognized brand names in the toy industry. Milton Bradley and Parker Brothers make classic board games such as Monopoly and Scrabble."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest investment ideas and market commentary from the financial newsletter community.

Top 20 advisors: Vahan Janjigian dials up AT&T

Last December, over 100 stocks were featured in our Top Picks for 2007 report. Now, at mid-year, we turn to the 20 advisors whose picks showed the strongest gains to get an update on their previous picks, as well as a new favorite stock for the second half of the year.

Vahan Janjigian, editor of The Forbes Growth Investor, chose Sirenza Microdevices (NASDAQ: SMDI) as his top pick. Although the stock rose 35% as of June 1, 2007, the issue no longer meets the requirements of his quantitative model and has thus been dropped from his coverage.

His new top stock pick for the rest of 2007 is AT&T (NYSE: T). The advisor explains, "As measured by revenue, AT&T is the world's largest telecommunications company. It provides both wireline and wireless phone and data communications services.

"The company realized cost savings of $300 million in Q1 from the BellSouth acquisition. The November 2005 acquisition of SBC Communications yielded an additional $600 million in savings in Q1.

"Better-than-expected synergies have led management to increase the 2007 operating profit margin target to 23-24%. The Wireless segment added 1.2 million net new subscribers in Q1, bringing the total to 62.2 million. Average monthly revenue per user increased 1.4% year-over- year to $49.21 per month.

"Total churn improved to 1.7%, down from 1.9% in the prior year period and 1.8% in Q4. Churn for postpaid customers hit a record low of 1.3%. These improvements helped the Wireless segment expand its operating profit margin to 38.9%.

Continue reading Top 20 advisors: Vahan Janjigian dials up AT&T

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 12:43 PM

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