Time was, independent refiners like Valero Energy Corporation (VLO), first discussed here on April 20, 2009, at a price of $20.08, were in a bind, operationally, due to high oil prices and low gasoline demand that squeezed crack spreads.

But that was a long time ago. Refinery margins, which were squeezed during 2008-2009, due to the loss of more than 8 million jobs from the U.S. economy -- many of those being vehicle owners -- continue to recover. Gasoline demand, in particular, has rebounded: the U.S. will likely see decreased gasoline usage on a per capita basis, as vehicle efficiency improves, but rising vehicle sales stemming from job growth will offset this.

Continue reading Valero Energy: Time to Take Some Profits?

Valero Energy: Time to Take Some Profits? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 09 Feb 2011 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Options Player Strangles Valero Energy

Options Player Strangles Valero Energy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 05 Aug 2010 13:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"This Fortune 500 company operates 15 oil refineries throughout the United States, Canada and the Caribbean. Its refineries have a combined capacity of 2.8 million barrels per day, an amount equal to about 1% of the 400 million gallons of gas used daily in the United States.

Continue reading Valero Energy (VLO): Refined Potential

Valero Energy (VLO): Refined Potential originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 23 Mar 2010 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Valero (VLO) issues woeful Q2 forecast

Valero (VLO) issues woeful Q2 forecast originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 03 Jun 2009 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2008 picks -- the last nail

Chasing Value: 2008 picks -- the last nail originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 12 Jan 2009 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"The 'low-hanging fruit' on our buy list includes refiners," says resource expert Curtis Hesler in The Professional Timing Service. Here, he looks at Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO).

"Refiners enjoy a virtual monopoly. The high price of crude has put the squeeze on profit margins -- especially in the case of gasoline, even though it is selling for over $4.00 now. Gasoline always becomes a political issue during election season.

"Nevertheless, gasoline prices are generally rising. The stock market is also getting 'depression minded,' to the point of paranoia; and this fear is dragging some stocks like refiners lower with the tide.

"The current profit squeeze will not be permanent, but Valero has another arrow in its quiver. They are able to process sour crude, which is becoming more prevalent as exporters keep more of the good stuff (light sweet crude) at home and ship the heavy sour crude.

Continue reading Resource expert votes for Valero (VLO)

Resource expert votes for Valero (VLO) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Jul 2008 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A few days ago I posted Chasing Value: Valero -- when is a downgrade an upgrade? and since then I have become even more disturbed with our government and the stock analysts, as well as the companies they represent. Eitan Bernstein, an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co downgraded his expectations for the major oil refiners Wednesday and lowered his price target for Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) from $77 to $65.

How can this be? The stock was trading around $40 per share and closed Friday at $39.96. As a shareholder who has watched this stock go down, any signs of optimism have to be welcome I suppose, but what in the world is this guy saying. He is saying he has concerns about the sector, but believes VLO will be 61.5% higher this time next year any way!

This makes no sense. He can't be too concerned, can he? If you believed him you would buy all the VLO shares you could get hold of -- and so would he! Maybe he did? Or maybe he is trying to pump up the stock to help a big client? Or maybe he is clueless and does not know what he is talking about? What might his e-mails reveal?

Anyone can predict anything, and they have a right to be an idiot, but what responsibility does he have to eat his own cooking? VLO started the year near a high that is between Bernstein's old and new projections, and I for one have hopes of it rebounding, but I do not have the level of certainty to broadcast such an exact figure. What is the purpose?

The change in his projections of 15.5% is indicative of the silliness of this analysis. We have seen this before and will see it again ... so buyer beware.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of VLO.

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Sunday Funnies: Analyst -- VLO up 61.5% in next 12 months originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 29 Jun 2008 13:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of VLO.

Chasing Value: Valero -- when is a downgrade an upgrade? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 27 Jun 2008 15:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Although he has been maintaining a cautious stance on the refining group, energy sector expert Elliott Gue is now boosting the rating on Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO).

In his The Energy Strategist, the advisor explains, "Valero is now attractive for three reasons: superior geographic exposure, refinery complexity and a new focus on profitability."

"Our caution on the refining group was due to expectations that crack spreads would be weak through the spring, a period during which spreads tend to widen. Overall, this call was correct: Refiners have underperformed the energy patch since mid-March.

"And longer term, I have some concerns about new refining capacity expansions due to come online over the next few years. As this supply comes online, it could put downside pressure on margins.

"But over the next six to nine months, the refiners look like a compelling play. Gasoline inventories are now back in line with seasonal norms; it's likely gasoline prices will now rally further relative to crude oil. In fact, we're already seeing an obvious spike in crack spreads.

Continue reading Valero (VLO): Ready for a refinery rebound?

Valero (VLO): Ready for a refinery rebound? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 19 Jun 2008 12:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Today was a very gloomy day in the stock market with Oil reaching new highs and everything else losing -- almost. Among the few winners, and I mean very few, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), oil, and specialty steel were up. I went through my watch list and found this very short list of winners:

Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) $78.49, up +$0.95 or 1.23%

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) $185.90, up +$2.30 or 1.25%

Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) $49.92, +$0.85 up +$1.73%

Precision Drilling TR (NYSE: PDS) $27.90, up $1.13, or 4.22%

Reliance Steel and Aluminum (NYSE: RS) $67.37, +0.$52, or 0.78%

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) $50.12, up +$0.43 or 0.87%

Continue reading Apple, Oil, & Steel were rays of light on gloomy market day

Apple, Oil, & Steel were rays of light on gloomy market day originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 20 May 2008 20:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Kiplinger: Oil refiners not as profitable as we might think

Kiplinger: Oil refiners not as profitable as we might think originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 May 2008 16:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It was announced Monday that Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) has entered into an agreement with Albertson's LLC to acquire 72 convenience stores and fueling kiosks. This will expand Valero's company-owned retail presence in Texas, Colorado, Arizona and Louisiana, where Valero already operates approximately 950 company-owned Corner Store locations.

Valero, one of my top picks of 2007, is my worst of 2008 -- Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- April Bunge's back. It has been a turbulent couple of years in the oil industry and as my colleague Doug McIntyre reported earlier -- Goldman makes case of $200 oil -- it does not look to get much better.

In the mean time, while Valero's margins have been squeezed this year, it looks like it is intent on diversifying into more of a retail, convenience outlet and sell snacks and coffee in addition to its fuel products. "This transaction offers great synergies with our existing retail network and supply chain," said Gary Arthur, President of Valero's Retail Division. "All of these sites are relatively new and offer strong potential for merchandise growth." Should the 7-Eleven and Circle-K chains be worried? Not yet.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of VLO.

Valero shops at Albertson's and buys 72 retail sites originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 06 May 2008 11:22:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.

My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) was down the most in March but recovered about 35% of the loss in April leaving Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) the dubious honor of being my worst performer, down over 30% in the first four months of the year.

April showed improvement as many companies reported positive earnings reports or beat expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained some ground in April as did the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index was up with stocks like Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) improving significantly on very strong reports. Google is up over 25%.

Most of my picks improved. Higher food prices no doubt helped Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) which recaptured losses moving up 23% from its recent bottom. My two winners Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were joined by a third, Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) which had a 10% swing entering positive territory.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- April Bunge's back

Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- April Bunge's back originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 01 May 2008 15:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

After three months it is time to face the facts: two of the three indices beat my picks handily. I have not made a good showing so far and unlike most investment idea sources, I feel obliged to air my dirty laundry for all to see.

My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE:NCT) is down almost 37% this year, and the energy stocks did almost as poorly even though fuel prices are near all-time highs. The downers were not offset by this months' repeat winners.

March was a seesaw battle, but in the end there was not much to show for it. However, unlike the last day of January (down 370 points in the Dow) and February's last trading day (down 315 points), March had a final day of plus 46.49, which is not very meaningful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave some ground in March as did the Standard & Poor's 500 Index while the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index was marginally up with stocks like Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) improving notably.

Most of my picks sagged a little more, while two remain in positive territory. Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor is up and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) is way up.

Continue reading Chasing Value: March review -- 8 stocks for 2008 -- not so refined

Chasing Value: March review -- 8 stocks for 2008 -- not so refined originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 07 Apr 2008 15:18:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Earlier in the week I posted about finding the market bottom using that age-old handheld calculator, a white paper napkin. So, unfortunately it looks like I may be right again. Not exactly something I was hoping for, but if it has to be, it has to be. I wonder if my old napkin can outperform Wall Street super computers?

Is this an auction to the bottom? Are investors bidding things down instead of up? Looks like it from all the negative sentiment. Consumer sentiment is down, and short sellers are all excited, increasing their negative positions to new highs every day.

And here is the all-telling sign of capitulation: the ever-lying overly optimistic government is starting to admit how bad things are and throwing hundreds of billions of dollars at the problem. When does the turnaround come?

Continue reading Dow below 12,000 -- do I hear 11,000? Yes I do!

Dow below 12,000 -- do I hear 11,000? Yes I do! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 07 Mar 2008 15:02:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Two months into the year and investors' true 'metal' was tested, and mine more than most. February showed signs of improvement over January, but the last week ended hopes of any rally. The last day of January saw a 370 point drop in the Dow and February's last trading day closed with similar results, down 315 points.

The soft stock market did display many points worth noting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was about break even for the month, indicating investors were showing some signs of support for large cap stocks, prompted in part by news of increased profits at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and share buy-backs at IBM Corp (NYSE: IBM).

I cannot say the same for the other major indices, NASDAQ Composite Index and Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which dropped significantly last month.

Some of my picks also sagged a little more, although not as much, while two turned into positive territory. In January, only Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech, defense contractor, was up. In February, the weak dollar and inflation concerns boosted Anglo American plc (ADR) and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) -- two commodity plays.

Continue reading Chasing Value: February review -- 8 stocks for 2008 -- testing my 'metal'

Chasing Value: February review -- 8 stocks for 2008 -- testing my 'metal' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 03 Mar 2008 14:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I recently posted Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 and mentioned that all of them pay a dividend. If this year is going to be as gloomy as some would have you believe, then stocks that pay dividends, as a group, will outshine those that do not.

The following are my eight picks, with the closing stock price as of my start date December 28, 2007 and the dividend yield. Last year, there were more stocks among my picks that paid a dividend higher than the S&P 500 Index average of 1.8% . This year there are only two.

• Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) $30.79. 1.9%
• Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) BG was $119.03. 0.56%
• Huaneng Power International, Inc. (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) HNP was $41.75. 3.5%
• Loews Corp. (NYSE: LTR) at $49.35. 0.50%
• Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT) was $13.08. 22%
• Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) RTN was $61.51. 1.65%
• Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) $54.32 per share. 0.58%
• Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) VLO was $70.55. 0.66%

Continue reading Chasing Value: Final 8 -- love dividends

Chasing Value: Final 8 -- love dividends originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 07 Jan 2008 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Valero (VLO) falls in anticipation of higher crude production originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 27 Nov 2007 11:28:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Valero (NYSE: VLO) is not one of the famous "big oil" companies, but with a market cap of $39 billion and trading volume that averages nine million shares a day, it is big enough.

The difference between the price of crude and what Valero could charge for finished petroleum-based products hurt its earnings as it has other oil companies that have reported Q3 results.

Third quarter 2007 operating income was $1.2 billion versus $2.3 billion reported in the same period last year. The $1.1 billion reduction in operating income was mainly due to higher prices for light sweet crude oils. Revenue was up only slightly to $23.7 billion.

The company was not high on its Q4 prospects either. "So far in the fourth quarter, the margin environment has been difficult as prices for refined products have failed to keep pace with the increase in feedstock costs," said Bill Klesse, Valero's Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer. "In particular, the seasonal supply and demand patterns and higher feedstock prices have squeezed gasoline margins."

So Valero finds itself in the difficult position of not being able to pass rising oil prices on to end-users fast enough to drive up earnings.

Ironic that an oil company cannot make more money as its primary commodity's price moves up sharply on an almost weekly basis.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor for 247wallst.com.

Valero: Big oil continues to get hurt originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 06 Nov 2007 07:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This year has been a stock picker's market extraordinaire! This month's review provides ample evidence of this, as you'll note that Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included for fun because of its popularity, beat all else as a portfolio of one. The average of my seven picks came in second, beating James Cramer's average based on his nine picks. Both Cramer and I beat each of the three indices I am tracking, and therefore beat the average as well, with the largest and most stable, the Standard & Poor's 500 coming in last.

Of course, this could easily change given recent market volatility. A sharp downturn in the market could reverse our fortunes. A lot can happen in the remaining two months -- I take nothing for granted.

While Google shined brightly this year, Cramer and I have each made one pick that shined brighter. Cramer's best, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has gone into orbit this year on the wings of the iPhone, iPod, and growing Mac sales. Benefiting from rising oil prices, shortages in China and the Chinese government allowing a 10% price hike, my PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR) has rocketed, becoming the second-largest capitalized company in the world. PTR has done this even in the shadow of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) selling its shares and Warren Buffett questioning the huge appreciation of the Chinese stock market and stocks overall.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: AAPL +135%, PTR +85%, GOOG +53%, & VLO +36%

Chasing down 007 picks: AAPL +135%, PTR +85%, GOOG +53%, & VLO +36% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 02 Nov 2007 14:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.