Despite reporting a 49% drop in fourth quarter earnings, Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) beat Wall Street expectations by 38 cents, and you know what that usually means -- the stock jumped.

Valero was able to take advantage of price spreads on crude in the fourth quarter that were obviously not a part of analysts' estimates which they are no doubt changing as we speak.

According to the AP: "In 2008, Valero officials said they expect gasoline markets to return to more seasonal patterns, with margins improving during the summer driving season. Diesel margins were expected to be strong because inventories are lower than last year and demand remains strong, said Chairman and CEO Bill Klesse."

Continue reading Chasing Value: Valero jumps 10% on lower earnings

Chasing Value: Valero jumps 10% on lower earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 29 Jan 2008 13:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The price-to-cash flow ratio has been repeatedly promoted in various publications as one of the more important metrics to consider when evaluating a stock to buy. Apparently over long periods of time it is more telling than the often quoted price-to-earnings ratio. I have read that cash flow is a key metric that "my pal Warren" looks at for Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) investments.

Here are the figures for the Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 in order from highest to lowest P/CF. The 12/28/08 starting stock price, yesterday's closing price and the current P/CF for the most recent fiscal year (MRFY) are listed. Only two stocks are up, while six are down.

Continue reading Chasing Value: BG, HNP, LTR, VLO, NCT price-to-cash flow

Chasing Value: BG, HNP, LTR, VLO, NCT price-to-cash flow originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 15 Jan 2008 15:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

What can I say except to report the facts as they are. Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO), one of my top picks of 2007, is my worst of 2008 -- so far! The refiners have taken a big hit this year as the Department of Energy has reported that gasoline inventories are up at the same time that oil prices have only come down marginally.

This is putting the squeeze on oil refiners like Valero, which are not able to increase margins on slackening demand at the pump. Last year, Valero made me look great all year long, rising 36%, and this year I stuck with it: Chasing Value: Valero Energy (VLO) is just so refined.

If the economy continues to look gloomy and the inventory trend continues, with supplies remaining more than ample, then perhaps my best pick will turn into my worst.

In the meantime, we are only 10 days into the new year, and January has been dismal. The market was up and down yesterday, finally ending higher, as fickle as I have seen it in a while, and it is up notably again today. Valero closed yesterday at $61.67, about $8 off my start point. It is up today even after the inventory report has been broadcast, so I think fickle is the word of the day, or even the week.

To find potential opportunities and verify my track record read Chasing Value or Serious Money.

DISCLOSURE: I own shares of VLO.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture & planning firm.

Chasing Value: Valero Energy -- From best to worst? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 10 Jan 2008 15:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

If you do not own Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) already, you were not listening last year when I was ranting and raving every month why this was a must-own stock. It was one of my favorites last year, remains one of my favorites now and looks to have an open road ahead of it in 2008.

Valero's profit margins were squeezed in the second half of 2007 by high crude prices rising while pump prices were stable, but that is likely to change, and I think the stock can continue to appreciate significantly. It may not change fast , as the economy is going through some rough spots. Also, VLO, which is reporting earnings on January 29, may still have some lingering margin issues.

Last year this was one of my top picks and jumped 36%. I rarely make specific predictions as analysts tend to do, but I feel comfortable stating VLO can beat all the major indices. Everything I liked about Valero last year is still in play now, so I'm letting this winner ride.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Valero Energy (VLO) is just so refined

Chasing Value: Valero Energy (VLO) is just so refined originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 Jan 2008 17:04:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is the final review of the seven stocks I picked twelve months ago, and the time has passed quickly. This covers the period from December 28 2006 through December 27 2007. It has been a stock pickers year for sure given that the S&P 500 index moved up only modestly. Having come to this conclusion, I must admit my seven picks were all over the place. Three beat the indices, two performed sorely and two were basically break even except for the healthy dividends.

If the stock you happened to pick was Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included as sort of a "stalking horse" because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one. As a matter of fact GOOG beat my picks by a whopping 930% meaning it bested my returns with very little effort with a gain 9.3 times the average of my seven stock picks.

The average of my seven picks fell dramatically in the last two months and I have gone from wonderboy with about a 22% YTD return, to waterboy with about 5.5% return -- UGH! I rode the Chinese market up and down, among the macro events.

Luckily for me I did not stop picking stocks last December. My actual average of all recommendations in 2007 is notably higher, see: Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007.

Highlighting the fact that this year was suited to the stock pickers, James Cramer's average based on his nine picks beat all the indices by a healthy margin. Cramer, as you might imagine, had the most volatile picks. The two best Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT) did spectacularly well. Apple was appreciating most of the year while Savient saved Cramers tush by doubling in the last month due to approval of one of their drug therapies.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 7 for 2007 review: Props to Cramer for his 2007 picks

Chasing Value: 7 for 2007 review: Props to Cramer for his 2007 picks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Jan 2008 13:13:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

To quote one of my college professors (with thick Chicago accent) "Ya pays yer nickle 'n ya takes ya bes' shot." This year I wrote over 200 stories and reviewed even more stocks. Going over all of this material I came up with the ones listed here as my four best and four worst of the year.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,501.52 is Up to 13,359.61 (+6.86%)
• NASDAQ Composite Index: 2,425.57 is Up to 2,676.79 (+10.36%)
• Standard & Poor's 500 Index: 1,424.73 is Up to 1,476.37 (+3.62%)

Continue reading Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007

Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 31 Dec 2007 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Year-end is almost upon us and I need to get this short list cut down to size with two weeks to go. Because this story is an ongoing process, the heart of the story, the possible stocks, are posted below again, with the latest in bold type as the story builds and I examine things more closely. This week I am adding another energy play in the form of a Canadian Trust. Then I follow with the current edited stock list and the stocks to be cut.

Gallery: Chasing Value: 8 for 2008

In seeking value stocks that have seen their share prices greatly diminished this past year based on reduced earnings, I came across Precision Drilling Trust ADR (NYSE: PDS), which has a P/E near 5 and a dividend yield over 10%. According to AOL Money & Finance information, the company is Canada's largest drilling contractor, with a fleet of 240 service rigs. Its contract drilling units provide drilling services, equipment supply and repair, and on-site catering and management. PDS has extended its reach into the United States this year and has invested in new technology, replaced older rigs and is preparing for continued expansion. Favorable metrics include a low P/B of 1.57 and high historic profit margins of 40%.

PDS closed yesterday at a price of $15.47 per share, near its 52-week low of $15.35, a low set today during the trading day, and 44% off its high of $27.78. The P/E is a trailing figure and is actually higher but the dividend looks secure. For a few more details see: Chasing Value: Precision Drilling for 10% yield.

Disclosure: I have already bought shares of PDS at $17 in several portfolios.

The following stocks have been put in three groups, considering I want to reduce the number to eight. The first group is highly likely to make the cut based on what I know today. The second group is still under consideration but depends on what the value is in two weeks because of current volatility. The last group is being cut, and I noted why.

Continue reading Chasing 8 for 2008: What's in, what's out

Chasing 8 for 2008: What's in, what's out originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 14 Dec 2007 15:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For the most part, this year has portrayed itself as a stock picker's market. If the stock you happened to pick was Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included for fun because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one.

The average of my seven picks fell as dramatically in November as it rose in October, reflecting the ebb and flow of the Chinese market. James Cramer's average based on his nine picks sank as well, but not as much. While Cramer managed to stay ahead of all the indices, and I beat the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 and marginally beat the Dow Jones Industrial Average, I lost out to the NASDAQ and the average of the three.

Last month, after reporting spectacular gains, I remained realistic when posting "Of course, this could easily change given recent market volatility. A sharp downturn in the market could reverse our fortunes. A lot can happen in the remaining two months -- I take nothing for granted."

Yes, Google has done well, but Cramer's best, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has done much better. It seems to be priced for perfection, as they say, but it also seems to be achieving it so far on the wings of the iPhone, iPod, and growing Mac sales. Warren Buffett voiced his opinion that the Chinese market has gotten bloated, and PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR), while still up significantly, dropped back off its all-time highs after becoming the second-largest capitalized company in the world.

Continue reading Chasing Value: After 11 months, AAPL +125%, GOOG +50%, PTR +35%

Chasing Value: After 11 months, AAPL +125%, GOOG +50%, PTR +35% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Dec 2007 16:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is going to be a journey ending with eight stock picks for 2008, on December 28, 2007. It is my intention to use the closing prices on that day for those eight stocks as the point of departure to publicly track the results and see if I can beat the market again. This year, as measured through October I have done so. I have also been tracking James Cramer's picks and he too has beaten the market to date, but lags behind me (sorry, couldn't resist). While we made some great picks, we both had some dogs as well. Furthermore, I will be the first one to admit that there is some luck involved in the short run.

Last year I beat the market, earning 29%, and it was my fifth straight year doing so after going down in flames with the rest of you when the tech bubble burst. At that time I also had the pleasure of being an Enron investor as well, so I have made plenty of blunders. But I have learned a lot from my mistakes, and hopefully others can learn from them as well as I share my investing adventures and how I turned things around.

Continue reading Serious Money: Hot stocks for a cool year -- finding 8 for 2008

Serious Money: Hot stocks for a cool year -- finding 8 for 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Nov 2007 16:46:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

You all can worry about whatever you want to worry about. You can follow the bulls or bears, day traders or CD holders, Wall Street pundits or the guy next door, it does not matter to me. I am looking for opportunity in the rubble.

If you are a true investor, you have a watch list -- when there is fear and negativity in the market like there has been the past few days, there will be opportunities. It is not a time to jump in with both feet, and it is not a time to speculate. It is a time to pick and choose among the companies and stocks you know well.

I would like to own more Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) but it has run up so fast it has escaped my grasp, although I sense an opportunity is in the wings. I would like to own more Anglo American PLC (NYSE: AAUK) but it jumped up after recent acquisition talks in the mining industry and has not settled down yet. And it may not, but I will be patient. My regular readers know I love Huaneng Power Intl ADS (NYSE: HNP), which hardly moved today but has come down significantly in the past week, and that is very, very tempting.

Continue reading Serious Money: This is my type of market -- watch list ready!

Serious Money: This is my type of market -- watch list ready! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 09 Nov 2007 19:26:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I think you all have gone mad if you are buying stocks today just because the market is moving up, or you are planning on federal rate cuts yet to be announced, or Hilary Kramer or James Cramer said so, or you are afraid the train is leaving the station without you, or your stock broker or palm reader has become bullish. There is only one reason to buy stocks and that is to make money and secure your future for the long run. To do that you need to have solid reasons that can be accounted for and demonstrated to have a high degree of probablity. I did not see that today.

A friend of mine asked me today whether they should sell their shares of Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and take profits after it's recent runnup. I told them I had no idea whether to buy, sell or hold. There was no concrete data that has been released since it's last quarterly report (after which it dropped by $50 in one day) so to me it is all wild speculation. If you believe that the rate cuts are good for the overall market which includes Google then perhaps you can hang your hat on that -- I won't be.

I have been touting Huaneng Power ADS (NYSE: HNP) for a long time and those that paid heed to my comments made a ton of money with me, but even though I love this stock I am not promoting it today after it's 45% jump in the last six weeks Volatile Market picks: Huaneng Power (HNP) is my pick for the next 50 years. I like to buy on dips as I wrote when it was down 20% off its high not when it is screaming forward to new highs. I think patience is in order.

Continue reading Throw caution out the window GOOG, AAPL, HNP, ACH, VLO, ISRG -- NOT!

Throw caution out the window GOOG, AAPL, HNP, ACH, VLO, ISRG -- NOT! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 01 Oct 2007 17:39:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This Chasing Value post marks my 400th story for BloggingStocks over the last 18 months. I originally agreed to do about five per month, so I have exceeded what I thought was practical, given my other responsibilities. Through this time I have learned a lot about writing, blogging, editing, the internet, AOL, and have continued to improve my investing acumen, which is a never-ending process. Many of our readers have contributed with some thought-provoking commentary and made this time a more interesting journey. I created the Chasing Value section after discussions with Senior Editor Amey Stone, and it seems to have gathered a modest following. This is the latest installment tracking my 2007 picks.

Through September, the market has benefited from a 0.5% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board, recovering much of August's losses. This has also stimulated oil and gold prices to new highs and caused the dollar to shrink in value overseas. To some degree I think this resulted in foreign stocks rising significantly, most notably Huaneng Power International ADS which derives 100% of its revenue outside the United States. Last December, I made a strong case for HNP; prior to its recent rise I did so again for our Volatile Market picks: Huaneng Power (HNP) is my pick for the next 50 years.

This year continues to be a stock picker's market, as the volatile James Cramer of TheStreet.com and I have both topped the indices. Cramer made the best and worst picks for the year among those I've been tracking monthly. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is the best performer among all the stocks and indices in this review, and has stabilized what might have otherwise been a mediocre showing. It has been a good year for energy and tech stocks. The past few months have been dismal for the financial sector, and anything lingering near its giant shadow.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is once again approaching its high of 14,000 and looks like there might be room to exceed it. The housing market and subprime loans continue to worry investors, but unlike last month when an interest rate cut was not a certainty, the market seems to be betting now that another cut is not far off.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: AAPL +89%, HNP +46%, PTR & VLO +30%, GOOG +22%

Chasing down 007 picks: AAPL +89%, HNP +46%, PTR & VLO +30%, GOOG +22% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 01 Oct 2007 13:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

July started off so promising and ended in the dumps. After the DJIA triumphantly closed above 14,000 it beat a hasty retreat scared off by a tumbling housing market, continued worries about sub-prime loans, record highs in oil prices, continued turmoil in Iraq and perhaps a dose of summer vacationitus. In addition, market darlings Apple and Google exited the month with a few unanswered questions. Nothing could be more telling than people speculating about a Dow 15,000...16,000...17,000 the moment it passed the 14,000 mark. And silly guy that I am...thoughts of repeating my 29% 2006 return entered my mind when I reached a 24% IRR earlier. That no longer looks like a possibility although I'm still doing fine - so far.

The month of July started off about stock picking and finished about stock picking as James Cramer of TheStreet.com would support. However, among the good picks were plenty of bad ones and anything remotely associated with housing, and sub-prime loans paid a heavy price by month end. Google maintained its leadership but did take a dive after reporting earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set so many new highs that it is not news anymore, but then there was news, most of it bad enough to put doubt in investors minds, and the market traded down. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major unexpected affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are showing some signs of slowing, but deals are getting done. This is my seventh follow-up report. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

Although the DJIA has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are giving large cap stocks their due, it has retreated lately. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy, creating opportunity for the multi-national corporations.

Continue reading Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse

Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 08 Aug 2007 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Through the month of June it seems that it remains a stock pickers' market as Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), James Cramer of TheStreet.com and I all topped the indices. Google continued its strong move upward battling me for the lead, while Cramer lost much of his gains of last month competing to stay ahead of the indices. Cramer is sticking with his NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) pick, and it continues to drag him down. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major has affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are a bigger story and something seems to be happening every day. This is my sixth follow-up report. It is not a long time, but short of a major change in the global economic picture it looks like 2007 will be a good year. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

There seems to be growing support for large cap stocks which analysts have been talking about but now might be starting to show up for real. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are finaly giving large cap stocks their due. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy. There also may be some flight to safety. That said, June seemed more cautious then May except in foreign markets as indicated by the strong rise in my Chinese picks. Investors moved the S&P 500 index to new highs.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Google leads, Cramer sags, value up!

Chasing down 007 picks: Google leads, Cramer sags, value up! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Jul 2007 19:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The month of May was all about stock picking as James Cramer of TheStreet.com has come roaring back after a poor showing in April. Google also made a strong move upward. After languishing for three months it has come close to its all time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set so many new highs that it is not news anymore. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major has affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are a bigger story and something seems to be happening every day. This is my fifth follow-up report. It is not a long time, but short of a major change in the global economic picture it looks like 2007 will be a good year. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

The DJIA has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are finaly giving large cap stocks their due. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy. There also may be some flight to safety. That said, May was not a time of caution. Investors moved everything upward with even the S&P 500 index reaching a new high. Cramer took back the lead and for the first time the indices lagged.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Google & Cramer roaring back and the Dow oh my!

Chasing down 007 picks: Google & Cramer roaring back and the Dow oh my! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Jun 2007 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A friend of mine, T.R., is an officer in the Air Force, currently stationed in Kabul, Afghanistan: not exactly a resort, and not a place you would want to spend another 250 days in. He tells me the troops like Oreo cookies -- made by Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) -- of all things. They like them better than "homemade." Perhaps, greater reliability; an important concept in the military. Perhaps it is the preservatives; also an important concept in the military.

Here is the most interesting thing about his email. He reads all my stories and he informed me that he bought one of the oil stocks I recommended and sold it for a quick 10% profit. Now that brings several thoughts to mind. First, there is the dramatic impact the Internet has had on the ability of people to stay connected to the world -- trading stocks from Afghanistan! Second, I'm a buy-and hold-guy and evidently he is not. All of my oil-related picks have continued to rise --Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) and Anadark Petroleum (NYSE: APC) in particular -- and he would have been wiser to hold on to them. Of course when you are in a war zone, perhaps your time horizon is now, so who can blame him.

When I relayed this story to someone else, he fantasized about an "enemy combatant" in a bunker a mile away also reading my story and trading stocks. Not likely unless it was an Al Qaeda or Taliban leader moving money to Switzerland or the Bahamas, as warlords are prone to do.

Anyway T.R., when you read this you should know you are loved and respected, and your friends miss you and can't wait for your safe return. And more Oreos are on the way!

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Oreo treats in Afghanistan originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 22 May 2007 19:18:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is an update through April 30, 2007 after many companies have reported their first quarter earnings and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJAI) passed the 13,000 watermark and set new record highs. We are still in the midst of earnings season. This is my fourth follow-up report. Not enough time to prove much but plenty of time to make or lose some money. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

This month an interesting trend took hold. Even with the indices reaching new highs and many stocks doing so as well, it seems there must be some caution in the wind. This is the first month that my value approach lead the pack and Cramer's approach, whatever it is, took a back seat. Not only is Cramer lagging each of the indices, but four of his six speculative and growth picks were down while all three of his value picks were up. Google seems to be dead in the water for now, having reported tremendous growth and beating analyst's guestimates again by a wide margin, it still has not gained any traction even in an up market.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Index beats Cramer - value trumps growth

Chasing down 007 picks: Index beats Cramer - value trumps growth originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 May 2007 16:42:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In the past few days Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) has been losing some of its steam after finally approaching its 52-week high of $70.75 set nearly a year ago. Taking a look at the company fundamentals, this stock still seems like it has room to run for all the reasons I enumerated in previous stories, the last being Valero: What goes up keeps going up?!.

Last week, a Citigroup analyst downgraded the stock based on valuation. I've said it before and I'll say it again: the analysts create perversions in the market with their (sometimes worthless) reports. With oil prices softening along with this call, traders have also decided to remove some money from the table. Well, bless the analysts and the traders because they just created an opportunity for long-term investors like me, and hopefully like you. I bought in when VLO was at $51 last December and I have a limit buy order as of today's date. This is a stock I want to own for the long haul and I believe will be a market beater for the next few years.

Some of the latest fundamentals are eye openers for a value investor:

Continue reading Valero Energy: Traders profit taking creates opportunity for investors

Valero Energy: Traders profit taking creates opportunity for investors originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 18 Apr 2007 14:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is an update through March 30, 2007 bringing the first quarter to a close. Earnings season is now upon us. It is my third follow-up report. Three months is a short time in the market for long term investors, and an eternity for a day trader. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!.

Summary of Results:

• James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 2% after two months but now stands at: +2.82% an improvement. Adding the dividend portion (.66 x .25) of 0.165 brings Cramer's gain to 2.99%. Last month it was his speculative stocks that supported his gains. This month they pulled back and his gains came from his best pick so far, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
• The Indexes remained slightly negative, the DJIA leading the way south: -1.2%. Adding it's portion of the dividend yield (1.8 x .25) of .45 brings it up to a gain of 0.85 for the quarter.
• My picks are down for the year, but improved from -1.9% last month, to a negative of -0.61% for the quarter. Adding the dividend portion of (3 x .25) of .75 brings my quarter to a slight gain of 0.14% which is negligible. My picks are the most volatile now with super gains over 25% from Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) and super losses from PetroChina Co. (NYSE:PTR) which was at an all-time high when I mentioned it. Both companies are in the same industry, but PetroChina's profits are more closely regulated.
• Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) provided an +8.1% return in January, slipped to -2.9% in February and YTD has moved up for a smaller loss: -1.0% Although it has been an erratic three months Google has managed to float within a tighter range lately.

Not much change since last month. Since the quarter has concluded I added one quarter of the the dividends to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results. Only 3 of Cramer's picks pay dividends averaging about .66%; the Indexes pay a higher average of 1.8%; my picks average still higher at about 3%; and Google does not pay a dividend. The flatter the market is this year the more the dividends will be a factor.

I still remain very comfortable with my stock picks and believe this year will prove to be a "Tortoise and Hare" story. It is my belief that 'Value' will beat 'Growth' and 'Indexing' over the long run. Google is a wild card! Two of my picks continue to be mentioned as buyout candidates; Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD). Home Depot is receiving the most negative discussion in business circles these days but I see it as becoming a greater value at the lower price.

The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and three month returns for the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK).

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Q1 is done - Valero is tops

Chasing down 007 picks: Q1 is done - Valero is tops originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Apr 2007 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

There are few people reading this story that do not know about the quality of Procter and Gamble (NYSE: PG) -- the company or the stock. In the first of my new chronicles titled Serious Money: GE, JNJ, PG, PEP or index funds?, several people commented about PG or asked me about it privately. Let me start by saying this is one that you should have on your watch list but I do not think it is ripe for picking at this time.

The stock is not only near a 52-week high but an all-time high, so no matter the quality of the company, caution should be exercised. It closed Friday at $63.80 having reached $66.33 on January 19, 2006. Oddly the stock collapsed in sympathy with the rest of the market March 2000, and a year later after rising 30% it fell back to the same place at around $30. Over the next five years, as you can see, it retraced its steps of the previous five years, and then some.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Procter & Gamble not ripe yet

Chasing Value: Procter & Gamble not ripe yet originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 26 Mar 2007 16:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.