The editor of Half-Priced Stocks explains, "Even more promising, those who know the company best -- the CEO and one of its co-funders -- have been voting with their wallets lately." here's his review of the income holding.
"The company -- a master limited partnership (MLP) -- owns over 17,000 miles of natural gas pipelines in several states, including the largest network serving the prolific gas basins of Texas.
MLPs come in two classes: general partner and limited partner. The general partner (GP) typically handles all of the day-to-day operations and in return gets a cut of the distributions that are dished out to the limited partners (LP).
"In this case, the General Partner is Energy Transfer Equity, our recommendation, which should not be confused with the Liimted Partner -- Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP).
"Energy Transfer Equity owns all the General Partner interests -- as well as 62.5 million LP units (46%) of ETP. All of which is a convoluted way of saying that ETE unitholders can expect to be showered with cash.
There are few topics as popular on BloggingStocks as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), one of the original eight we focused on. In the past 52 weeks, the stock has fallen from a high of $202.96 to a recent low of $79.14 amid the greatest market turmoil in 80 years.
Everyone has finally agreed that we are in the midst of a severe recession, and Wall Street has punished Apple, the inventive high flying growth story, because of fears that a slowdown in consumer spending will stall its market expansion.
Black Fridays promise aside, the market is in a wait and see mode. In the meantime, after five consecutive trading days in the upward direction, Apples shares closed Friday in a shortened trading day at $92.67, down for the day but notably off its earlier lows.
A sixth up day was too much to hope for as the market is down, and Apple hit a Monday low of $89.00
"Among contrarians, one advisors stands out among all others: David Dreman," notes John Reese, editor of the Validea newsletter.
His advisory service selects stocks based on the strategies of time-tested investors, he reviews Dreman's approach and offers one stock that matches the contrarian's investment profile -- specialty metals firm, Allegheny Technologies (NYSE: ATI).
"Dreman, perhaps more than any other guru I follow, is a student of investor psychology. And at the core of his research is the belief that investors tend to overvalue the 'best' stocks -- those 'hot' stocks everyone seems to be buying -- and undervalue the 'worst' stocks -- those that people are avoiding like the plague.
"In addition, he also believed that the market was driven largely by how investors reacted to 'surprises', frequent events that include earnings reports that exceed or fall short of expectations, government actions, or news about new products.
"And, he believed that analysts were more often than not wrong about their earnings forecasts, which leads to a lot of these surprises. By taking a contrarian approach -- i.e. targeting out-of-favor stocks and avoiding in-favor stocks -- Dreman found you could make a killing.
"To find out-of-favor potential turnarounds, he compared a stock's price to four fundamentals: earnings, cash flow, book value, and dividend yield. Because Dreman took advantage of the overreactions of others, he found that one of the best times to invest was during a crisis.
"Allegheny Technologies is a diversified specialty metals producer; its metals are selected for use in environments that demand metals having hardness, toughness, strength, resistance to heat, corrosion or abrasion, or a combination of these characteristics.
Despite economic woes, cash-strapped consumers, and forecasts for a dismal holiday retail season, value investor Charles Mizrahi still sees value for long-term investors in high-end retailer Coach (NYSE: COH).
The editor of Hidden Values Alert explains, "Founded in 1941, Coach has grown from a family-run workshop in a Manhattan loft to a leading American marketer of fine accessories and gifts for women and men.
"Coach is one of the most recognized fine accessories brands in the United States and in targeted international markets. Its modern, fashionable handbags and accessories use a broad range of high-quality leathers, fabrics and other materials.
"The company has created a sophisticated, modern and inviting environment to showcase its product assortment and to reinforce a consistent brand position wherever the consumer may shop.
In his Hidden Values Alert, value investor Charles Mizrahi discusses three rules for "thriving during a panic". This in-depth, common sense review is must reading for serious investors. (For 10 specific stock ideas that meet value investing criteria, see our other post on a Benjamin Graham-type portfolio.)
"Warren Buffett once said, 'You don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out.' In the past year the tide was rapidly going out, and it exposed a lot of naked swimmers.
"The impact of the credit crunch continued to find its way into other asset classes. Correlations that investors held dear, namely that price movements in one global market would behave differently than price movements in another global market, became unglued.
"The past year has seen global markets move in lockstep with each other, providing investors no safe haven.
"Investors couldn't even hang their hats on diversification among different sectors. It is during periods of panic that all markets and sectors correlate in the same direction...down. Investors both institutional and retail acted in a similar manner: they froze.
"They began to sell assets, many times without regard to the underlying value of the asset. In order to raise cash for redemptions, hedge funds sold what they could, not always what they wanted.
"When stock market participants focus on the short term, employ leverage and need to liquefy their holdings, the table is set for the value investor.
"Indeed, it is during times of panic that value investors plant the seeds of future market-beating returns. While most investors are caught like deer in headlights as great companies are offered at bargain prices, value investors act.
John Reese is an expert in analyzing the investment criteria of "legendary" advisors with time-tested strategies. And one market approach that may be of particular interest to investors during the current period of market turmoil is the value strategy developed by Benjamin Graham. (For more on this strategy, see our other post, "Three Rules of Value Investing".)
In his Validea newsletter, John reese explains, "Benjamin Graham -- considered the greatest investment guru by Warren Buffett -- built his reputation by using an extremely conservative, low-risk approach to investing." Buffett, incidentally, was Ben Graham's student.
Reese continues, "To Graham, preserving one's original capital was every bit as important as netting big gains. Having lived through the 1929 market crash, it's no surprise that the strategy Graham laid out in his classic book The Intelligent Investor was a conservative, loss-averse approach.
"To Graham, an investment wasn't something that could be turned into quick, easy profits; anything that offers such 'easy' rewards also comes with substantial risk, and Graham abhorred risk. In terms of specifics, Graham's approach limited risk in a number of ways, and my Graham-based model lays out several of those methods.
The absolute meltdown of financial stocks -- especially names like Lehman, Bear Stearns, and Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) -- has landed a body blow to the performance of quite a few well-respected value investors. Most notably, Bill Miller has seen his remarkable streak of beating the S&P 500 turn miserably, with his fund down about 30% so far this year. Overall, large-cap value funds are down an average of 24% over the past year.
So what happened? Basically, the pessimistic majority was 100% right on the future of many of these financial firms and the contrarians were completely wrong. But I think there was a larger problem for many of these top value investors: they abandoned their principles and bought big into companies they didn't understand, with risks and balance sheets that no one understands.
Eugene Fama told (subscription required) The Wall Street Journal that it's "not true" that value investing is safer than other forms of investing.
I disagree. What's risky is investing in stocks that you don't understand based on superficial analysis, and that's what got people like Bill Miller in trouble.
"At the Morningstar Investment Conference, I had a chance to hear directly from manager of several of our 'best buy' funds," says fund expert Mark Salzinger.
Salzinger explains, "The managements of these equity funds are sticking to its guns. In the case of Dodge & Cox Stock, this means a continuation of a contrarian focus on large out-of-favor stocks. often in equally out-of-favor sectors.
"In the case of T. Rowe Price Equity Income, this means a continuation of focus on high quality companies that appear historically cheap based on various levels of valuation, including their dividend yield relative to the market.
"Charles Pohl, the chief investment officer of Dodge & Cox and a member of the portfolio management team on DODGX, spoke strongly about what he considers to be the attractive opportunities in financials now that the sector is so out of favor.
"He says that the Dodge & Cox team is focusing on intense analysis of companies within subsets of the financial services industry, looking for stocks that have been beaten down with their peers despite superior operations, including safer historical underwriting standards.
The Wall Street Journalreports (subscription required) that a number of prominent value investors have unloaded their stakes in beaten down financials, booking hefty losses in the process. The highly-respected Ariel Focus Fund has dumped its stake in Citigroup (NYSE: C), booking a 24% loss over three years. Weitz Partners Value Fund has dumped stakes in Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). Read the Journal piece for more examples.
It's impossible to look at these sales without wondering if it's a sign of a bottom. When the most patient investors have thrown in the towel, who is left to sell? Contrarians might look at this is a sign that it's time to dive into badly beaten financial stocks with subprime exposure, but I'm not so sure.
The reason that so many prominent value investors are bailing is that there is a complete lack of visibility and transparency at so many of these names -- the solvency of the company depends on the accuracy of the valuations listed on the balance sheet, and those valuations are in question.
It might well be that the brave few who buy these names will do quite well, but it wouldn't call it investing: buying something you don't really understand is speculating, and I don't think there are too many people who really understand the financial statements of companies like Fannie and Ambac (NYSE: ABK).
"Around the globe, wind-generating capacity has been expanding at a rapid 30% clip in recent years," notes value investor Nathan Slaughter, who adds, "And 2008 is already shaping up to be even better."
The editor of Half-Priced Stocks looks at industrial product firm Trinity Industries (NYSE: TRN), explaining, "The company's most promising division is involved in the production of structural wind towers." Here's the advisor's of the latest addition to his "deep-discount' model portfolio.
"Led by states such as Texas and California, wind farms around the country will generate almost 50 billion kilowatt hours of electricity this year. Of course, the U.S. is still playing catch-up with many other regions.
"In fact, countries such as Spain, Portugal and Denmark all rely on wind farms for as much as one-quarter of their total power needs. Across Europe, wind turbines will account for roughly one-third of all new generating capacity installed over the next few years and could provide electricity for 90 million people by 2010.
"The outlook is even brighter in many booming, energy-hungry Asian markets. In China, installed wind power capacity surged +130% last year and will reportedly supply a great deal of the electricity needed for the upcoming 2008 Beijing Olympic Games.
"Thanks to the great strides in engineering, wind turbine output has increased by a factor of ten (or higher in some cases) over the past decade.
"One group of stocks that has always intrigued us are those whose symbols have one letter," notes George Putnam. The editor of The Turnaround Letter explains, "Odd as this idea may at first seem, it actually makes some sense for a deep value investor. These are often old-line companies with well-known brand names. In some cases the single letter symbols were awarded many decades ago."
After reviewing the 19 stocks with single letter symbols (7 are currently unused), Putnam offers six that he says, have been "beaten down pretty badly and now look particularly appealing."'
"Agilent Technologies (NYSE: A), which makes electronic and bio-analytic measuring devices, was spun out of Hewlett-Packard in 1999. Revenues surged in 2000 as did the stock price, reaching a lofty 162.
"But the company subsequently suffered along with its customers in the communications and technology sectors. However, the financials are sound, including strong cash flow that is supporting a $2 billion share buyback, and management has been restructuring and realigning operations for long-term growth.
New data from Dealogic shows that July was the fifth straight month of growth in U.S. mergers and acquisitions activity -- and the highest total since a year ago.
But it's not quite as good as it looks. The data is skewed upward by foreign bids for American companies like Genentech (NYSE: DNA) and Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) and, according to the Associated Press, "the rise in M&A ... more likely reflects foreign companies taking advantage of the weak dollar than it does a loosening of credit."
But from an investors' perspective, the cause of the increase probably doesn't really matter. Deep value investors like Mohnish Pabrai have been struggling to post strong returns of late, in part because the private equity funds that could be relied on to buy undervalued companies a couple years ago have brought their U.S.-based activity to a hault.
But now the foreign companies and sovereign wealth funds are in the game and, from an investors' perspective, that's just as good -- whoever will buy undervalued public companies at a premium will boost returns. The low price-book, low price/earnings, contrarian investment strategies that haven't worked lately could be ready to start working again, just as they have historically.
"My ETF pick for the week is in honor of John Templeton not just because of his meeting his final summons this week at age 95 but because it highlights one of the key tenets of his legendary investment career. Templeton's first maxim was to buy at the point of 'maximum pessimism'. IRL trades at a 15% discount to net asset value.
"Ireland has gone from darling to outcast in less than a year in the eyes of the global investment community. Rather than look for markets that were performing well, Sir John built a career looking for troubled or ignored markets that traded at attractive valuations.
"Due to vastly overvalued property markets and loose banking and fiscal policy, the market is done close to 70% since last fall. It's growth rate has averaged 7-8% during the past decade but growth prospects have been officially lowered to zero for 2009 and its economy actually shrank in the first quarter of this year.
"To make matters worse, property prices in the posh retail areas of Dublin have already dropped 50% and home prices have fallen 20%. Ireland's stock market is now the cheapest market in the world based on forward price earnings and price to book."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
Monday was an extremely trying day for my portfolio and me. Talk about depressing. Let's see, CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE) took a dive of almost 15% on hellishly high volume (it traded more than 17 million shares on Monday, and AOL Finance lists the 30-day average volume as being a little under 3 million shares) on news about a money-losing sale of assets. Now, once I saw CapitalSource moving down, I knew that Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) wasn't going to be trading higher. Sure enough, there was indeed something new at Newcastle. A new 52-week low. The stock closed Monday at $7.06, down 10% and one penny above the low. And then there's MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA). It too was down, although only about 2%. Yeah, only. All of these stocks are at prices well below my cost basis.
I'm at that weird crossroads all investors find themselves at some point. Is it too late to sell? Let me tell you, I don't want to be one of those panic sellers who regrets dumping his stocks because as soon as he does so they start to rise. But, I don't want to be one of those holders who doesn't know when enough is enough. It's pretty rough. You don't know whether to add to positions that are faring poorly and thus risk throwing away money, or whether to avoid adding money and thus risk not getting some bargain prices. And in terms of Newcastle, my colleague Sheldon Liber is with me on this. He thinks the stock may turn out to be a value. See this article.
My other colleague, Timothy Sykes, has counseled me to instead focus on strong stocks that are working. I can't say he doesn't have a point. Indeed, my portfolio does seem rather masochistic. For now, though, I will try to avoid any emotional decisions. I am going to continue to watch the financial carnage as it further unfolds and evaluate every potential stock trade very carefully. This summer is going to be a tough one. I'll let you know what happens.
Disclosure I own CapitalSource, MFA, and Newcastle Investment; positions can change at any time.
"USEC (NYSE: USU) is the nation's leading supplier of enriched uranium for use in commercial nuclear power plants -- in fact, it is the only supplier," notes value investor Nathan Slaughter.
In Half-Priced Stocks newsletter, he explains, "Low-enriched uranium is commonly used as fuel in nuclear reactors, and no other company in the U.S. provides it, giving USEC a dominant position in a key niche market." Here is his review.
"Its competitive advantage? USEC has the single best competitive advantage there is: zero competition -- at least in the United States. While the firm does have a handful of rivals overseas, it has reaped the benefit of being the lone U.S. supplier.
"The company has also been awarded lucrative contracts to perform work for the U.S. Department of Defense.
"The company also benefits from the nation's longstanding nuclear non-proliferation treaty with Russia. Specifically, it participates in the salvaging of old Soviet nuclear warheads under the 'Megatons to Megawatts' program, which essentially gives the firm a sharply discounted source of uranium.
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