The news couldn't get much worse. Commodity prices keep soaring, consumer confidence is in the gutter, inflation has reared its ugly head, the US dollar loses value by the day and each day we read of more company layoffs. With all this seemingly endless stream of negativity the question is if now is the time to start buying stocks?
There is an old investing adage that says that you should invest when there is "blood in the streets." There is no doubt that it takes some serious courage to buy stocks at this point, but if you are a long term investor, you have to think that the tide will turn at some point in the not too distant future. I know many of you will say that we haven't even gotten close to hearing the worst of the news. That we are in store for consumer bankruptcies, and maybe a large bank or two to fail. My point is that the market is already pricing that in. Or at least most of that has been priced in. Even stocks like Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) have fallen to levels that they could be considered value stocks as opposed to growth stories. Stocks just seem cheap.
No one can predict if the market will drop another 15% from our current levels. What is indisputable is that the market is selling at a large discount to where we were eight months ago. While some of the sell-off is justified, keep in mind that the market generally overshoots both when it rises and when it falls.Then it finds a middle ground.
With all of today's bad news, maybe it's time to back up the truck and start buying stocks.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 6/29/08.
"The indiscriminate sell-off in the financial sector has left some banks at valuations that haven't been seen in 20 years," says value investor Nathan Slaughter.
In his Half-Priced Stocks newsletter, the advisors looks to one out-of-favor favorite among banks: Minneapolis-based U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB). Incidentally, he notes that Warren Buffett recently added to his position in the banking stock.
"US Bancorp is the nation's sixth-largest bank in terms of assets, with nearly $238 billion at last count. The firm operates over 2,500 branches in 24 states, mostly in the western and midwestern parts of the country, including an established presence in key markets such as St. Louis, Denver and Seattle.
"Over the past year, the company has seen solid increases in both loans and deposits. More importantly, it paid out just 3.8% on those interest-bearing liabilities, far below what it earned on loans and other investments -- with the net interest margin expanding to 3.91%.
"And, that rate could move even higher in the coming months thanks to a more favorable interest rate environment. And as for credit quality, U.S. Bank remains at the very top of its peer group.
"Value stocks are those whose prices are relatively low compared to their fundamental value, as measured by factors such as earnings and net worth," notes Mark Hulbert.
"Value stocks can be considered all-season stocks, as history shows that they can perform well in both up and down markets." Here, the editor of The Hulbert Financial Digest also offers a list of value stocks that recommended by the most advisors who have also beaten the broad market over the last decade on a risk-adjusted basis.
"Value stocks are to be distinguished from so-called growth stocks, which have relatively high price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios.
"Consider first how value stocks perform during bear markets. Believe it or not, they on average actually tend to make money. It's not only that they lose less money than the overall market, they actually gain.
"Take the 2000-2002 bear market, for example, during which the overall stock market declined by 48.6% (as measured by the dividend-adjusted version of the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index (97199001:Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index
"In contrast, according to data compiled by University of Chicago finance professor Eugene Fama and Dartmouth University finance professor Kenneth French, the average value stock over this time gained over 80%.
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"My conservative choice for 2008 is The Men's Wearhouse Inc. (NYSE: MW), one of the largest specialty retailers of men's suits," says value investor Charles Mizrahi, editor of Hidden Values Alert.
"Men's Wearhouse stores offer a broad selection of designer, brand-name and private label merchandise at prices 20% to 30% below the regular prices found at traditional department and specialty stores.
"The firm's US operations include 636 retail apparel stores. The brand targets middle- and upper-middle-income men by offering quality merchandise at everyday low prices. In addition to value, the company believes it provides a superior level of customer service.
"The shares outstanding have decreased by 10% over the past five years. In addition, long-term debt/equity is only 9% and it has $135 million in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet (as of August 7, 2007).
For several years, Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) was considered one of the most successful companies in America. It used its cable franchise to build a huge broadband, VOD, and VoIP cash machine. The so-called "triple play" of voice, TV, and broadband could not be matched by telecom competitors, so Comcast took hundreds of thousands of phone customers away from them each quarter.
From mid-2003 to early 2007, Comcast shares rose close to 100%. During the last three months, they are down 27%.
It finally occurred to Wall Street that competition from satellite TV and the new fiber-to-the-home products from telecom companies like Verizon (NYSE:VZ) were eating into Comcast's customer base. The company recently announced that its growth and cash flow would be less than expected. Customer growth was slowing and the firm had to put more money into infrastructure so that it could improve offerings for products like HDTV.
An influential cable analyst, Benjamin Swinburne of Morgan Stanley, says the slide in Comcast shares is over. According toBarron's the analyst"notes that the stock's multiples have been compressed to historic lows." He also thinks EPS and free cash flow could grow as much as 20% a year, if Comcast can keep adding voice and HDTV customers.
The logic for Comcast making a comeback may be a little thin. Verizon's FiOS is taking customers from Comcast and it is only in a small fraction of the 18 million homes that will eventually have access to the service.That means that the head-to-head competition for the cable company will actually increase. And satellite TV companies continue to ramp up their programming and HDTV offering.
The worst is probably not over for Comcast.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Six months ago I got all excited about "My pal Warren's" little company and decided it was due for another run when I posted Chasing Value: Berkshire Hathaway -- the time is now . Every investor who is in the market for a while gets to know some companies better than others and this is one I own and have been following for some time. This stock is a Triple-A, large cap that has trounced most everything else for quite some time. However, what suprises me and allows me to make money on it is the frequency with which Wall Street under-appreciates Mr. Buffett and under-values his company. The following is an excerpt from the June post.
Ooooh yes, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) is a value, and it will be all the more so if this market takes a summer swoon, or global markets shift, or big caps take the lead. If you are just starting out and want to have a diversified solid foundation, this is a good stock to start with. You will also be a part of a special club receiving the golden words of Buffett in the annual report, although they are on the BRK website for all to see already.
In August when things were becoming a little more dicey I posted Serious Money: Safe havens -- T-Bills or Warren Buffett? stimulated by the notion that T-Bills had very limited value. Shareholders and long time Berkshire watchers are well aware of the stock pattern for BRK.A / B, it trades in a very tight range for several years while all the while it's earnings are growing, P/E shrinking, and shareholder equity and book value build-up becoming more tempting until the cork pops off the bottle. On June 11, 2007 when I started ranting about the opportunity you could have bought "B" shares for $3,612. Yesterday it closed at $4,905 for a six month gain of 35.8%, or you could have accepted about 2.4% on the T-Bill over the same period -- "guaranteed".
The Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY), which is the largest U.S. candy maker, is getting a new Chief Executive, David West, who is moving over from the COO suite. Shareholders will be anxious to see if this suite move really translates into a sweet move for the stock, which is down for the year about 25% from $56.75, closing near its 52-week low today at $44.50.
I have been watching this stock for a few weeks now as I search out what will be valuable in the coming year -- and then going forward for a lifetime. As "my pal Warren" likes to say, the proper holding period for a stock is "forever." Chocolate is a candidate for sure, and Buffett certainly would have to support this notion since Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) owns a premier American Brand in See's Candies.
Chocolate may be as recession-proof as beer and lipstick, so this company is worth looking at as an investment opportunity. When I review the numbers I see both good and bad. To the good, it is paying a 2.56% dividend yield, which does sweeten the pot (OK, I'll stop that). To the bad, it is facing increased prices for sugar, now competing I suppose with the energy sector (ethanol), ironic since chocolate bars are promoted as energy food. Oil seems to have dipped in the past few days but I'm not sure the demand for sugar will.
A piece in today's Wall Street Journal looks at the decline of so many home building stocks and the metric that sent so many value investors chasing a falling knife: Book Value. Book value is a defined as a company's assets minus its liabilities, and can give a quick indicator of whether a stock is really cheap.
But what got investors who chased home builders into trouble was that the companies ending up having to take write-downs because of declining land values, and they ended up in a classic value trap: The stock just wouldn't stop becoming a better deal!
Investors will continue to argue about the future of the home builders. But the issue that has some value investors scratching their heads is this: When companies write-down their book values as their businesses decline, how helpful can book value really be?
Adding to this, a decline in stock price can actually lead to a write-down of intangible assets, as recently happened at companies including PlanetOut (NASDAQ: LGBT) and Lenox Group (NYSE: LNX). So what good is book value?
It's very good. It's so good in fact that super-investors like Carl Icahn and Warren Buffett used it to screen for cheap stocks early on in their careers. Buffett's best returns came with his investment partnership based on the principles of Benjamin Graham, which are all about book value and liquidation value.
I frequently use book value to screen for very cheap stocks. But most of them turn out to be junk, and they deserve to be cheap. Book value is a great way to find potentially interesting stocks, but strong bottom-up research must follow.
A recent piece on MarketWatch outlines ways to differentiate a value stock from a value trap. First, some definitions: A value stock is a stock that is being undervalued by the market, due to some sort of inaccurate perception about the company or industry. Eventually, according to experts like Benjamin Graham, the share-price will move to reflect the value of the underlying business: "In the short-run the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it's a weighing machine."
Value traps look like value stocks, but they don't go up. Often this is because the fundamentals of the business decline along with the share-price: the shares get cheaper as the business declines in value. The article talks about ways to avoid these stocks, and how find real value stocks.
There's a different kind of value stock: Companies that are tightly held, have no volume, and have share prices that don't seem to budge. Generally these are companies that are so tightly-controlled that they are almost private companies. Oftentimes, they can be run for the benefit of management rather than the stockholders and, with such a huge portion of the stock held by insiders, there's little that any activist investor or hedge fund can do.
Those of us who look for really cheap stocks, like micro-cap net-nets, have to be especially careful of this. When looking at really cheap stocks, make sure that there are incentives and options in place for value to be unlocked. If there aren't, keep looking.
The market declines continue and I think the worst is yet to come. Opportunity is pounding at your door and some prudent money shuffling might reward you with some real value buys out there. I've done some stock tip searching to find companies that are being pointed out at as considerably undervalued. I'm providing you the names and links, but you need to do the homework. As always, be certain of the tax ramifications before you move that money around.
Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) has been identified by more than one analyst as being undervalued. Similar to General Electric (NYSE: GE), it's a matter of perceived value more than a balance sheet issue.
In the energy sector, Harvest Natural Resources (NYSE: HNR) is being pointed at as undervalued. Activity is picking up slightly on that name today. It might be a nice time to jump in. Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) is also being mentioned as currently undervalued, although I can't imagine why.
When I look for value, I generally look for deep value, such as stocks trading near or below their liquidation value, or companies with assets that are understated on the balance sheet. But a piece in today's New York Times talks about the more common kind of value stock: companies with above-market dividend yields and low price/earnings ratios. Standard & Poor's investment strategist Sam Stoval says there is great value to be had in some of America's best-known blue chips, such as Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE).
Oppenheimer's chief investment strategist, Michael Metz, has an interesting explanation for the value some see in blue chips: The recent run-up has been driven by hedge funds and buyouts, neither of which have much interest in companies of that size. With the market soaring to new highs, it seems that blue chips are a little bit boring for many investors, and value investors may be moving in to seize the opportunity.
Investors are feeling good right now because everything's going well. When people are optimistic, they tend to shy away from defensive investments. But if the market takes a turn for the worse, scared investors may seek refuge in companies like Citigroup and General Electric. If they do, investors buying those stocks now could look pretty smart.
Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) is really a United Kingdom based company with no American history, although a long history it has. We are continuing our search for value stocks as we very methodically place new money in the market. Our first purchase was an old favorite: Washington Mutual, Inc. (NYSE:WM). We recently acquired it at $40 per share after following it down from $47. Yesterday, Georges Yared posted Washington Mutual: A ridiculously cheap pick in sub-prime panic and we agree with him totally....take a look at the depressed price, the 5.3% yield and more.
We like the Anglo American company and the stock for numerous reasons. It came to our attention initially because it has a 1.17 price-to-sales ratio (P/S), a price-to-book ratio of 1.29 (P/B), and a yield over 2%. To go along with those metrics it has been growing at 15% to 20% over the last few years as the world demand for gold and platinum has increased. You can check out the fundamentals at AOL Money & Finance as a starting point for your own research if you are interested.
Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.
IMAXCorp. (NASDAQ: IMAX), which specializes in the development of high-end theater projection and sound systems, is the favorite speculative idea for 2007 from says Nathan Slaughter.
The editor of Half-Priced Stocks notes, "IMAX has been slammed by a 'perfect storm.' Within the span of a few months this year, the company has been battered by investor backlash due to a failed buyout, an informal SEC probe, a class-action lawsuit and, in November, sub-par quarterly results.
"While there is always a danger associated with 'trying to catch a falling knife,' the rewards significantly outweigh the risks at this point. Until fairly recently, IMAX movies were primarily a novelty found at museums, planetariums, and marine centers. But two major technological breakthroughs are bringing the IMAX experience to mainstream America.
"The first is its MPX technology, which allows commercial multiplex owners a cost-effective way to retrofit traditional 35-mm screens and convert them into IMAX theaters. Through the first nine months of 2006, IMAX inked 25 new deals. Further, its digital re-mastering technology that converts traditional 35-mm films into rich 70-mm IMAX format has led to a series of partnerships with major Hollywood studios like Disney and Time Warner, which are increasingly choosing to release blockbuster hits in IMAX theaters.
For those of you trying to think of the perfect gift that has value, will last a long time, and teach your kids a lesson, consider a few shares of The Black & Decker Corp. (NYSE:BDK) or Harley Davidson Inc. (NYSE:HOG).
Normally, I would recommend stocks be purchased as value plays and, at current prices, these two are fairly-valued stocks. I believe that they have room to go up, but I do not expect you to get rich from these levels. However, both companies are well managed, have strong brands and sell products that your kids might be interested in (motorcycles and power tools) ... even big kids. Getting the annual reports and introducing children to investing at an early age will be rewarding later on. Both companies also pay dividends, and I expect over the long haul, the growth rates will beat the overall market.
Black & Decker closed yesterday at $78.10. When I wrote about it last in August, it was about $70 per share. It was approaching a value play for me. It went as low as $66 a few days later and to my regret I did not buy in. I was greedy and looking for a $64 price. Had you invested then, on an annualized basis, you would be up about 25% from $70.
Harley Davidson closed yesterday at $70.11. I last wrote about HOG in August as well, when it was about $56 per share: I have been a shareholder since 1998. Had you bought in at the August price, you would now have achieved a gain of over 50% on an annualized basis.
You've heard about the gift that keeps on giving? BDK and HOG are both great picks and would make unique and valuable gifts for your children, now and going forward.
Happy Holidays!
Interested in reading more? Check out my other posts for Blogging Stocks here.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an architecture & planning firm.
Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) is up about 20% in the last six weeks, closing Wednesday at $467.50, which is wonderful for the faithful believers who seem to be in the majority. It has gone beyond any projection I could support having passed my top side 12-month value target of $440.00 after only four months. Seems it has gotten ahead of itself again by my reckoning, so I will have to let this one go.
All the excitement created by Google's very positive earnings report followed by numerous upgrades including James Cramer projecting a 12-month target of $560.00 per share still seems too volatile. This is not the next big thing, it is THE CURRENT THING.
While this GOOG euphoria has captured the imaginations and headlines, it is not the only success story. My last stock buy has also gone up just as much without all the fanfare over the same six week period.