What does Vanity Fair have to do with the stock market? Plenty, according to a tongue-in-cheek item published in Brandweek.
It turns out that when things go well for the glossy magazine, whose cover this month features "Sopranos" star James Gandolfini with a naked woman on his lap, investors should be worried.
"Consider: VF's March 2007 Hollywood edition ("Our Biggest Issue Ever!") clocked in at 500 pages," BrandWeek says. "During the week of Feb 26, 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average collapsed, from 12,647 to 12,114. (Remember that the magazine hits the streets the month before its pub date). "
Brandweek senior editor Jim Edwards also found similar connections with record issues in 2001 and 2000.
"The correlation is a good one," Edwards told me in an interview. "It holds."
Though I thought this was almost as stupid as the "Super Bowl" stock market theory, the thinking behind the joke was interesting.
When an economy gets overheated, companies start plowing some of their excess profits into advertising. This is particularly true with high-profile media outlets like "Vanity Fair."
"It makes a lot of sense that advertising would increase at the top of the market," Edwards said.
Remember that Edwards used the term "correlation." As our friends at Wikipedia point out, correlation does not imply causation. In other words what he found was an interesting coincidence.