Under the radar: Some trends are obvious enough and visible to all investors. Others are more-subtle, but are just as potent, and these often slip 'under the radar.'

Case in point: Saudi Arabia's oil exports to the United States have fallen to a 22-year low, at 745,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, the latest month for which data is available, from 1.14 million bpd in July, according to data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Agency. August's 745,000 bpd total is the lowest since December 1987. On a year-over-year basis (August 2008-August 2009), those exports are down about 50%.

The landslide victory of current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the announcement of same, only hours after the voting polls closed, even though paper ballots had to be hand counted, has cast serious doubts about the election results.

Last week I wrote of Iran's great potential but today much of that potential has evaporated for the time being, and perhaps for another four years. The rulers of Iran have decided that the devil they know is better than the one they don't. Unfortunately, as far as politicians go, they may have gotten exactly that.

It's bad enough that Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) killed its C2 brand a few years ago -- I still have one memorial (empty) can I keep in my china cabinet for posterity. Now Coke Zero, the soft-drink behemoth's alternative for those of us that don't quite dig the Diet Coke taste, poses a "danger to health" in South America? What the what?

Yesterday, the Venezuelan government ordered Coca-Cola to pull the Coke Zero brand from the country's shelves, claiming unspecified health risks. The nation's health minister simply said that the zero-calorie fizzy drink "should be withdrawn from circulation to preserve the health of Venezuelans."

What goes around comes around... and Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan "socialist" president who keeps promoting perpetual referendums to stay in power, has turned his recent attention back to those capitalist dogs he despises so much to bail him out of a tight jam.

After nationalizing agriculture, mining, power and building materials companies over the past few years, which pushed capital flight, Venezuela was reliant on oil for about 93 percent of its export revenue in 2008, up from 69 percent in 1998 when Mr. Chávez was first elected, according to a story in the NY Times.

While the socialist (authoritarian) in him is unhappy as oil is now trading around $35 a barrel today, dealing a severe blow to his misguided notions of economics, the pragmatic side of the former military man is biting his tongue and reaching out to all the major international oil companies he chased off only a short while ago. He is asking them to return and invest to expand exploration, maintain and modernize current facilities and improve over all productivity.

The question is: On what basis would a foreign enterprise dedicate its financial and technical resources to an agreement with a partner that has already ignored previous agreements?

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and CEMEX S. A. B. (NYSE: CX) are currently in litigation with the Chavez government. The Chinese and their nationally integrated oil companies have not done well either and remain apprehensive.

How can any deal get done? If it was being done on a smaller scale, you might use third party escrow accounts and ask for money to be set aside in advance, but Venezuela is cash strapped and would find this difficult to do.

One metaphor begets another, so from "what goes around comes around" I end with: Mr. Chavez, we would be happy to come back, but first we will have to see "cash on the barrel-head!"

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I own shares of CX but not XOM .

Oil prices, the source of so much inflation and consternation in the developed and developing world, are expected to continue to slide toward $60, economists and traders say, even as OPEC prepares to cut production at a special meeting this week.

Oil has fallen about 50% since hitting a record high of $147.27 per barrel in July, amid a financial crisis that's slowed growth in every region of the globe. Further, OPEC, which produces about 40% of the world and will hold a special meeting October 24, will only able to slow oil's descent to the $60-range, with anticipated production cuts, so says economist Peter Dawson.

"The report that China's economy grew at a 9% annual rate in the third quarter is the last piece of the oil demand puzzle, as far as the slowdown is concerned," Dawson said. "China was growing at better than 10% in the same quarter a year ago, so that will further reduce the growth in global oil demand, which is bearish for oil prices. Prices will most likely slide toward the $60-range by mid-2009." Oil rose $1.35 to $73.20 per barrel in Monday morning trading.

OPEC again cut its forecast for 2009 global oil demand, the cartel announced Wednesday in its monthly report, raising the specter that hawkish cartel members will push for production cuts at a special meeting next month.

OPEC now believes (pdf) that 2009 global oil demand will increase by 800,000 barrels per day to 87.21 million barrels, compared to the previous forecast of a 900,000 barrel per day rise.

OPEC said its production in September averaged 32.16 million barrels per day, down about 310,000 from August.

Energy prices continue to fall

Energy prices retreated Wednesday on the news. Oil fell $3.44 to $75.21 per barrel. The other major energy commodities also fell in early trading Wednesday, continuing their nearly month-long downtrend. Heating oil fell about 5 cents to $2.20 per gallon, unleaded gasoline declined about 8 cents to $1.80 per gallon, and natural gas fell 7 cents to $6.66 per million BTUs.

In its report, OPEC said that even if governments are successful in unfreezing credit markets, the fallout in the real economy is expected to be considerable. The credit drag, combined with decelerating growth in both developed and developing world economies, will weigh on oil demand throughout 2009. OPEC has called a special meeting for November 18 to address what it argues is an oversupplied global oil market.

As national policy makers strive to unfreeze credit markets and end a global financial crisis that threatens to severely damage economies worldwide, Saudi Arabia will not defend an $80 oil price, and instead will let the price of oil fall, to reduce a critical cost stress on the global economy, economists and energy traders say.

Further, despite today's more-diverse oil market characterized by dozens of suppliers, any Saudi decision to not cut production will lower oil prices, Energy Trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Friday.

Saudi Arabia possesses the largest, proven oil reserves in the world. The kingdom also has the biggest, quickly-marketable spare production capacity in the world, estimated to be 1.5-5.0 million barrels of oil per day, depending on the analysis.

'Saudis will let oil price fall, a lot'

"The Saudis are fully aware of the grave situation facing global financial markets and economies. The Saudis are going to let the price of oil fall, a lot. Other OPEC members like Iran or Venezuela may call for a production cut and try to protect their interest, but it's a non-starter, an after thought," Dietz said. "The Saudis know that every stimulative tactic must be used to keep commerce moving and eliminate stress and a lower oil price is part of that solution." (Dietz added that he had no open energy trading positions, his normal stance for a Friday.)

Oil fell $6.94 to $79.65 per barrel Friday at mid-day, as a near-panic atmosphere permeated markets as stocks plunged worldwide and U.S. stock markets declined for an eighth consecutive day. At 12:05 p.m. EDT, the Dow was down 313 points to 8,265 and the S&P 500 was down 38 points to 871.

"An $80 oil price is too high for this economy. It probably was too high for any economy, but that is a debate for another time. Right now, the oil market senses that the Saudis know the price of oil must go lower to reduce financial system stress," Dietz said. "And as the Saudis go, so goes the price of oil."

U.S. consumers have another reason to worry about gas prices. Two of the largest oil-producing nations in the world are forming a military alliance, and neither nation likes the U.S.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez signed new energy agreements with Russia on Friday, shortly after obtaining a $1 billion loan to buy more Russian arms."

Chavez has kicked a number of U.S. and EU oil companies out of his country as he has nationalized the industry. It would not be beyond imagination that Russia and the South American nation would use a combination of oil and guns to try to weaken U.S. influence in its own hemisphere and force America into more military spending to patrol the regions to its south.

Chavez has already begun spreading money around to his neighbors in the hope of being viewed favorably. Having a stronger military presence should help him make the case that he can keep the U.S. from using its power to push him out of his role as the most powerful political figure north of Brazil and south of Mexico.

One wouldn't call it the best week in the world for OPEC.

Once again, the world's best-known cartel has demonstrated that the coalition is not as cohesive or harmonious as a symphony orchestra.

Saudi Arabia, in confidential communications, let it be known that the kingdom would ignore the stated intent of other cartel members and continue to pump plenty of oil, The New York Times reported.

On Wednesday, OPEC announced that members would redouble effort to adhere to production quotas -- not exceed them as some members typically do -- an effort that, if effective, would be tantamount to a roughly 500,000-barrel per day cut in production, The Times reported.

OPEC's hawkish members said lower production is needed to eliminate what it believes is an oversupply in the market, and they cited this as the reason oil's price has fallen about 30% in two months to the $100-range, Bloomberg News reported. Oil closed Friday up 31 cents to $101.18 per barrel.

In the margins of Barron's this week there was a smallish note about the government of Venezuela nationalizing Cemex's (NYSE: CX) operations in that country. For some reason the government of Hugo Chavez thinks that stealing all of the private companies in 'his' country will lead to greater prosperity for 'his' people.

While it is a long journey from Venezuela to Zimbabwe, with its exponential inflation rate and a near-total economic breakdown, every journey begins with a first step. Mr. Chavez will move much closer to this inevitable outcome if he continues on his chosen path.

Motley Fool has a good write-up on the subject in which they detail the sour relations between Chavez and foreign businesses. Chavez recently offered to re-open negotiations with Cemex, but since he has already decided to take the company, that offer is suspect -- you can't negotiate with a gun pointing at you. To date, Chavez has nationalized the telecommunications industry, electricity, and oil. How many steps down the road is that? Why would anyone want to invest in Venezuela?

At this juncture, investors/readers thinking about speculating a little in oil via shares in the United States Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) or via an integrated oil company should think again.

With the U.S. stock market meandering and the nation's economic doldrums continuing, the urge can build in investors, particularly those less-experienced, to try something daring.

However, the oil market is currently in a tug-of-war between the geopolitical concern-oriented bulls and the global economy slowdown-oriented bears.

In other words, the oil market is about as balanced -- or as divided -- as it has been in about two years, so says energy trader Jim Dietz. Oil closed Friday up $1.02 to $125.10 per barrel. Oil is down about 15% from its all-time high of $147.27 registered on July 11, 2008, but is still up about 100% over the past year and about 400% since 2000.

OPEC has repeated what it has said before, but with a little twist. It will not raise supply before its September meeting. That means that relief from $130 plus crude prices may not be coming.

But, the small addition to the group's comments is that "OPEC has no plans to meet to discuss oil's surge to a fresh record, and would need to see a real supply threat to gather before the next scheduled meeting," according to Reuters.

While it is not entirely clear what that means, it probably includes disruptions of oil production in areas that have little political stability, especially Nigeria and Venezuela.

In general, OPEC says that speculation and a weak dollar are driving oil up. That is a convenient excuse for a cartel that is making hundreds of billions of dollars while gasoline prices move toward $5.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

When oil was at $65 a barrel, almost no one believed it would double. There were a few nuts making the case, but they were ignored like Galileo was when he said the Earth moved around the sun.

Now, it is hard to find analysts who do not believe oil is going to move over $140 a barrel, and, perhaps above $200. Their reasoning is sound enough. Demand in emerging nations like China and India is still increasing. While crude use in the U.S. may be off slightly, it's not off enough to matter. Supplies may be drying up as fields in the Middle East, Mexico, and Russia age. A political catastrophe in Nigeria or Venezuela could cut production.

Against all that, a case for a sharp drop in oil prices is quietly forming and its logic is powerful but poorly understood.

The first argument that oil is too high is that it has been pushed up in part by speculators rushing to cover bets that crude will fall. It is a bit like a "short squeeze" in stocks. Once the "covering" is done, oil prices will face less pressure on the upside.

American motorists, already stung by an 80% increase in gasoline prices in the past year, sense that $5 per gallon is ahead, and they may be (regrettably) right.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that 94% of respondents expect to pay $4 per gallon this year, and 78% expect to pay as much as $5, CNNMoney reported Tuesday.

The national average currently is $3.62 per gallon as tracked by the Lundberg Survey, Bloomberg News reported. Many higher-cost areas of the United States -- including New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Boston -- are already experiencing prices over $4 per gallon.

Further, traders and analysts say seasonal, structural, and geopolitical factors are likely to push gasoline considerably higher in the weeks ahead -- with gasoline's upward arc lasting months, if the price of oil continues to rise.

Primary culprit: Rising oil prices

The biggest factor in gasoline's rise is the price of oil, which Tuesday topped $122 per barrel in NYMEX trading for the first time in its history. Oil is up more than 100% since 2006. In November 2001, oil traded at about $17 per barrel. Moreover, because the crude component accounts for more than 60% of the price of a gallon of gasoline, refiners have passed that added cost onto consumers.

Venezuela has started collecting its new foreign oil companies windfall profits tax, as part of President Hugo Chavez' plan to gain a larger share of oil company profits, The Associated Press reported.

The tax is based on the monthly average price of benchmark Brent crude oil. The tax kicks in when the price of benchmark Brent crude sits above $70 per barrel, The Wall Street Journal(subscription required) reported. If oil prices remain above that threshold for one month, the state will take 50% of the difference between this average and the final sale price of every barrel. When Brent crude exceeds the $100-a-barrel average, the rate will rises to 60%.

'21st-century socialism'

President Chavez, a Socialist, has said the tax is necessary to fund key social programs as part of his effort to implement an economic and social system he calls "21st-century socialism." Critics say the tax will slow investment and development in the oil sector, and also discourage other foreign direct investment in Venezuela.