While Asian stock markets like Vietnam were the darlings of investors during 2006-07, market action and economic fundamentals may be a precursor to another Asian financial crisis like we had 11 years ago. The Vietnam market has lost more than 55% during '08, and with surging inflation, the currency is showing cracks of weakness as well.

May's inflation rate surged by 25.2%. Reading a recent Reuters report, one gets the feeling that there is a big problem on the horizon: "All readings from the economy are not healthy," a Vietnamese dealer with a foreign bank said. "The economy is not performing as well as expected by investors so they are pulling out and this trend is not short-term because we see nobody arriving. It is now an approach to a crisis."

Vietnam's dong is trading a multi-month lows, and more importantly the offshore forwards market has priced in a 30% depreciation in the currency. Countries including the Philippines, China, India, Thailand and even Hong Kong are all experiencing rapid inflation with no end in sight. This sounds all eerily familiar to what happened 11 years ago.

Investors should pay close attention to what's happening in South East Asia, as it could potentially have unpleasant ramifications for the rest of the globe.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any other mentioned, as of 6/3/08.

Is Asia heading for another crisis like 1997? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 03 Jun 2008 13:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Even a global company like Toyota (NYSE:TM) cannot escape the slowdown in the US market. The Japanese auto company reported it Q4 profits dropped 27%, more than expected.

Bloomberg reports, "The slowdown in the U.S. really hit Toyota,'' said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo, which oversees $28 billion in assets. "The market has yet to hit bottom.'' Indeed, for most car companies, US sales fell by double digits in April. Toyota did somewhat better, but "somewhat" is not enough.

The news reflects how difficult it is for multinationals to do well when the world's largest consumer market is doing poorly. It raises the question about what the financial results from large companies in Europe and Asia will look like as the year goes on.

The Toyota earnings are a sign that the US slowdown could move to export companies in places such as China and Vietnam, which rely heavily on selling goods into the American market. The bad news from America is starting to send waves to foreign shores.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

US market hurts Toyota (TM) results originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 08 May 2008 04:06:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

As the current Oval Office occupant puts another 21,500 troops into harm's way in Iraq, it's worth comparing the Vietnam and Iraq wars. The Christian Science Monitor proudly reports that Congress has appropriated a mere $507 billion for Iraq. This is 15.5% less than the $600 billion spent (on an inflation-adjusted basis) on Vietnam.

But when you look at the cost of the two wars as a percent of GDP, Iraq is a really thrifty quagmire. That's because Vietnam cost roughly 9% of GDP, whereas with a $13 trillion economy, Iraq costs us less than 1% of GDP.

But that's not all. Since the Iraq war began on March 20, 2003, the S&P 500 has risen 63% -- an impressive 16.8% per year! The Vietnam war can't even come close. Between May 31, 1961 when John F. Kennedy ordered 100 troops to South Vietnam and April 29, 1975 when the last American soldier was killed there, the S&P 500 rose 33% -- a mere 2% per year.

In case my sarcasm was not obvious enough, I believe that America should not wait two years to put an end to the Iraq madness. One way to end the wait would be to impeach Bush and Cheney. E-mailing this to your Congressional representatives in Washington could open a debate on the issue.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm, a Professor of Management at Babson College, and editor of The Cohan Letter.

Quagmire faceoff: Vietnam vs. Iraq originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 17 Jan 2007 12:19:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.