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Oliver Stone's 'W.' didn't preside over the box office

I thought Oliver Stone's cinematic treatment of George W. Bush, simply titled W., was going to be the number-one film over the weekend at domestic theaters. According to Boxofficemojo, it wasn't. The movie, distributed by Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF), came in fourth place with an estimated $10.5 million take. Truth be told, I forgot that Mark Wahlberg's Max Payne came out this weekend as well. I guess that would give Stone some tough competition, to be sure. That project, which came to the market courtesy of News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), took the top spot with $18 million. Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Beverly Hills Chihuahua and News Corp.'s The Secret Life of Bees came in second and third, respectively. Actually, those two films, plus W., had close box-office estimates at the time of this writing, so it is conceivable the ranking order could change slightly depending on what final stats reveal.

Even though Stone didn't succeed this weekend in terms of the multiplex rankings, shareholders of Lions Gate can appreciate one internal metric related to this box-office story. W.'s per-theater average in terms of dollars was similar to Max Payne's. The former's average was calculated to be roughly $5,200 per theater, while the latter's was about $5,330 per location (again, this is as of the estimates available to me at the time of this writing). Also, W.'s average beat Chihuahua's. So, you have to wonder what the rankings would have been like had the movie opened in more theaters. Coming in fifth place, by the way, is Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Eagle Eye. That's grossed a decent $80 million so far. I don't think it will hit $100 million, but it should get close.

I'll tell you, Lions Gate's stock is pretty cheap. Have you been following the price action? It's been volatile, as you obviously would have guessed, and it closed at $6.95 per share on Friday, having risen 7% during that session, perhaps in anticipation of the W. opening. I've been keeping my eye on the stock and have said in the past that it's an interesting trading idea below $9 per share. Obviously, that thesis has changed since current market sentiment seems to be as rational as the mind of The Joker, but if Lions Gate breaks its 52-week low of $5.59, then I'll definitely have to strongly consider it ahead of Saw V, which is set to open next weekend. Of course, I'll be very, very careful about pulling the trigger, and will consider many things before buying. Like the strong possibility that sentiment will drop even further and take Lions Gate down to low single-digit levels. Don't think it can't happen. That would be even scarier than surviving a jigsaw trap (well, not really, but you know what I mean).

Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change at any time.

Is Bush giving the country away without knowing it?

President George W. BushAfter reviewing Wednesday's post, Bush administration pushing dollar down or allowing it to fall? IMF chief sounds alarm, I thought of one more point that is of paramount importance. Either many people are ignoring or do not understand how a devalued dollar facilitates our giving away the country wholesale, even if in the short term it appears to help with our trade deficit.

This concept does not seem to have resonated in Washington and, along with his advisers, our president is either ignorant or avoiding the issue altogether because he does not want to discuss the remedy: everyone tightening their belt financially and taking some economic pain.

Warren Buffett has sounded the alarm many times about this subject, and I will, too. When the dollar falls in value, say 30% (each currency varies), that gives foreign investors 30% more buying power here. Yes, it is true they buy more when our goods and services are "on sale" (and we buy less of theirs). However, what if instead of buying perishables, they buy income-producing property and companies. As long as this trend continues, they would be wise to buy more and more.

A simple example: They buy a company that makes widgets in the United States. They are able to sell (export) more widgets along with their American counterparts because of the devalued dollar. Who makes a higher return on invested capital? The foreign investor, of course, because they paid 30% less for the widget company!

Continue reading Is Bush giving the country away without knowing it?

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 07:40 PM

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