Analyst Upgrades

• Philip Morris (PM) to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• Peet's Coffee (PEET) to neutral from sell at Janney Capital.
• Cephalon (CEPH) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• StoneMor Partners (STON) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Tibco (TIBX) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Apollo Group (APOL) to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.

Analyst Upgrades

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) and BB&T (BBT) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• D.R. Horton (DHI) upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Meritage Homes (MTH), Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) and Heartland Payment (HPY) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Toll Brothers (TOL) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Hershey (HSY) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• UnitedHealth (UNH), Cigna (CI) and Allscripts (MDRX) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Nationwide Health (NHP) to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• Reynolds American (RAI) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Adtran (ADTN), PG&E (PCG) and Wisconsin Energy (WEC) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.

Analyst Upgrades

• BMO Capital upgraded Procter & Gamble (PG) to outperform from market perform as it views P&G's valuation as attractive and expects growth to pick up in the March quarter. The firm has a $74 price target for shares.
• Goldman upgraded Tupperware (TUP) to buy from neutral and raised its target for shares to $60 from $48.
• Stifel Nicolaus upgraded Scansource (SCSC) to buy from hold. The firm believes that the company's growth is poised to accelerate, allowing the stock's multiple to expand or even rise slightly. The firm has a $43 target for shares.
• CA Technologies (CA) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Brady (BRC) was upgraded to market perform from underperform at BMO Capital.
• Lukoil (LUKOY) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.

Analyst Upgrades

• Piper Jaffray upgraded UPS (UPS) to overweight from neutral with a $79 price target following the company's better-than-expected Q1 results.
• SunTrust believs Zions Bancorp's (ZION) tangible book value is around $20/share, making any future capital raise not as dilutive as the firm previously expected. The firm upgraded shares to buy from neutral and has a $26 target on the stock.
• FBR Capital upgraded J.B. Hunt (JBHT) to outperform from market perform following the company's better-than-expected Q1 results. The firm raised its target price for shares to $43 from $40.
• American Superconductor (AMSC) was upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• BP (BP) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Global Payments (GPN) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.

Analyst Upgrades

• Deutsche Bank upgraded PNC Financial (PNC) to buy from hold on valuation as it believes the recent pullback in shares provides a buying opportunity. The firm raised its target on shares to $57 from $45.
• Kaufman Bros. upgraded Expedia (EXPE) to buy from hold on valuation as it finds the risk/reward on shares attractive following the company's Q4 results and believes revenue margin concerns are overblown. The firm has a $27 price target on the stock.
• Jesup & Lamont upgraded Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) to hold from sell following the company's Q4 results to reflect its improving traffic trends. The firm raised its target on shares to $96 from $81. Shares were also upgraded at BofA/Merrill to buy from neutral.
• Rio Tinto (RTP) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• FirstEnergy (FE) was upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies.
• Marriott (MAR) was upgraded to perform from underperform at Oppenheimer.

Whether you are a trader or an investor, you were probably as happy as Tom Cruise's "Joel" character in Risky Business to hear the closing bell today. Things were looking so promising this week that the media was pondering whether the bottom of the market had come and gone. That part remains unknown that feeling of bear market rallies has returned. The good news is that the auto snag did not bring about the massive down day as a recovery came in. The retail sales data came in slightly "less-bad" than expected.

General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) were the two bogeys today. Their fate lies in the chances of NOT going bankrupt, and the cancellation of the bailout from the Senate was only greeted by less selling than one would expected when you saw 20% drops and worse in early trading. The good news is that this did not destroy most stocks as much as many feared earlier today, with GM even managing some gains by the end of the day.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 8,629.68 +64.59 (0.75%)
S&P 500 879.74 +6.15 (0.70%)
Nasdaq 1,540.72 +32.84 (2.18%)

Top Analyst Downgrades
Top Analyst Upgrades

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded IberiaBank (NASDAQ: IBKC) to Market Perform from Underperform following the company's capital raise, which the firm believes strengthens IberiaBank's balance sheet. Baird upgraded IberiaBank to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation following weakness related to the $100M capital raise.
  
• Pali upgraded shares of Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) to Neutral from Sell on valuation as they believe the company's comp slowdown is largely priced in at current levels.
  
• Morgan Keegan upgraded Casey's General Store (NASDAQ: CASY) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation, healthy SSS, and easing comps.
• Cabot OIl & Gas (NYSE: COG) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) were added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
  
• American Capital (NASDAQ: ACAS) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Friedman Billings.
  
• CIBC lifted Manulife (NYSE: MFC) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer.

Analyst downgrades:

• Goldman downgraded Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) to Sell from Neutral based on expectations for reduced capex spending by mining and oil & gas companies and the impact from the credit crunch.
  
• Deutsche Bank downgraded auto companies and suppliers as they believe the failed government bailout increases risks. Ford (NYSE: F), American Axle (NYSE: AXL), Magna International (NYSE: MGA) and Lear (NYSE: LEA) were downgraded to Sell from Hold.
  
• SAP (NYSE: SAP) was cut to Hold from Buy at Jefferies to reflect the "deteriorating" corporate IT spend environment.
• Waters (NYSE: WAT) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.
  
• Agilent (NYSE: A) was lowered to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; the firm also downgraded Varian (NASDAQ: VARI) to Underweight from Equal Weight.

Analyst initiations:

• Jefferies believes Core Laboratories (NYSE: CLB) is well positioned to benefit from the increasing need for reservoir optimization services. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $70 target.
  
• Deutsche Bank initiated Capital One (NYSE: COF) with a Sell rating and $24 target, citing the difficult economic environment and the potential for higher credit losses.
  
• Soleil started Hexcel (NYSE: HXL) with a Buy rating and $10 target and expects the company's military business to remain strong through 2010.
• On Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ONNN) was assumed with a Neutral rating and $3.80 target at UBS.
  
• Cbeyond (NASDAQ: CBEY) was initiated at Oppenheimer with a Perform rating.
• Brocade (NASDAQ: BRCD) was started with a Neutral rating at Piper Jaffray.

Wall Street's optimism in last week's preview about the earnings of tech stocks wasn't misplaced, as there were many more positive surprises than negative ones among the stocks we looked at. This week will bring plenty more data for investors in and watchers of the sector to mull over. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), for example, are expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to post modest earnings gains from a year ago, to $1.11 per share (on $8.1 billion in sales), $0.72 per share (on $31.3 billion in sales), and $0.47 per share (on $14.8 billion in sales) respectively. All three of these companies ended the week closer to their 52-week lows than highs, and analysts on average consider them each a buy.

Here's a look at some of the week's biggest expected earnings gainers and decliners in the sector:

• Baidu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU): $1.25 per share (+44.0%) on revenues of $134.7 million (+103.2%)
• Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM): $0.44 per share (+38.6%) on revenues of $1.3 billion (+33.8%)
• QLogic Corp. (NASDAQ: QLGC): $0.31 per share (+29.0%) on revenues of $170.0 million (+21.2%)
• FLIR Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: FLIR): $0.32 per share (+28.1%) on revenues of $275.2 million (+44.0%)
• Juniper Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR): $0.30 per share (+26.7%) on revenues of $927.4 million (+26.2%)
• Waters Corp. (NYSE: WAT): $0.75 per share (+17.3%) on revenues of $391.6 million (+11.1%)
• Flextronics International Ltd. (NASDAQ: FLEX): $0.29 per share (+17.2%) on revenues of $8.7 billion (+57.3%)
• EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC): $0.19 per share (+10.5%) on revenues of $3.7 billion (+12.9%)

JP Morgan downgraded Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL) from "overweight" to "underweight," according to Briefing.com. The news service also writes that Moody's will not change its ratings on JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) after its buy-out of Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC).

Journal Communications (NYSE: JRN) has been started as "outperform" at Bear Stearns, according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial website also reports that Waters (NYSE: WAT) was raised to "overweight" from "neutral" at JPMorgan.

Jim Stack is well known for his "safety-first" approach to money management, focusing on a balance between risk and reward. In his InvesTech market Analyst, he notes, "We now see a window of opportunity in Waters (NYSE: WAT).

Here, Bruce Morison, consultant for Stack Financial Management, explains, "In a market overreaction to a weaker-than-expected fourth quarter, an opportunity has been created to invest in this high-quality company at an attractive valuation level.

"The stock dropped 20% when the company reported earnings that were $0.08 shy of the $1.06 estimate that Wall Street was forecasting. The shortfall was primarily a result of a higher-than-expected tax rate for 2007 and weaker sales in Japan.

"The Japan results reflected a change in government regulations for water testing. Our concern over this event is limited given that Japan accounts for less than 10% of the Waters' sales and is not a key growth market for the firm.

"A quick recap of the company ... Waters Corporation is a medium sized company based in Milford, Massachusetts which designs, manufactures, and services high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and mass spectrometry (MS) instrument systems.

Once generally restricted to university research laboratories, big-ticket instruments like mass spectrometers are now commonly found in a variety of business-oriented environments. One of the leading manufacturers of higher-end instrumentation is headquartered in Milford, Massachusetts.

Waters Corporation (NYSE: WAT) manufacturers scientific instruments used to chemically and physically characterize chemical substances. Its liquid chromatography devices and mass spectrometers separate and identify chemical species. Its thermal analyzers and rheometry instruments determine the physical characteristics of polymers and viscous liquids. Researchers use these systems to develop new drugs, identify the nutritional content of foods, and test the quality of air and water samples. Agilent Technologies (NYSE: A) is a major competitor.

Waters pleased investors last week, when it reported Q3 EPS of 62 cents and revenues of $353 million. Analysts had been expecting 60 cents and $344.5 million. The CEO attributed the solid results to "the ongoing success of our major programs and a generally favorable spending environment." The share price popped on the news and then moved into a bullish pennant consolidation pattern. Stocks frequently exit pennants moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Wet Seal (WTSLA), Brocade Communications Systems(BRCD), IAC/InteractiveCorp (IACI), CME Group (CME) and Rogers Communications (RCI) were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Merriman believes the turnaround at Arden B is well underway and both it and the Wet Seal chains have tremendous opportunities for long-term growth, initiating The Wet Seal (NASDAQ: WTSLA) with a Buy rating.

• Pacific Growth is positive on Brocade's (NASDAQ: BRCD) diversification into new products and services, starting shares with a Buy rating.

• Banc of America initiated shares of InterActiveCorp (NASDAQ: IACI) with a Neutral rating.

• William Blair believes the newly-formed CME Group (NYSE: CME) has an even more dominant competitive position within the growing futures exchange industry, reinstating shares with an Outperform rating.

• JP Morgan said Canada is an attractive wireless market and that Rogers Communications (NYSE: RCI) is well positioned, starting shares with an Overweight rating...

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Deutsche Bank initiated Waters Corp (NYSE: WAT) with a Hold rating.

• Goldman started Infinera Corp (NASDAQ: INFN) with an Equal Weight.

• Kaufman reinstated Savvis (NASDAQ: SVVS) with a Hold.

• Pacific Growth initiated Network Appliance (NASDAQ: NTAP) with a Buy.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Pharmion Corp (PHRM), Genesis Microchip (GNSS) and SanDisk Corp (SNDK) were some of today's most notable downgrades:

• Pharmion Corp (NASDAQ: PHRM) was downgraded to Sell from Source of Funds at ThinkEquity, citing valuation.

• Matrix USA downgraded Genesis Microchip Inc (NASDAQ: GNSS) to Strong Sell from Hold to reflect a share decline in revenues; they also believe shares are overvalued relative to the sector.

• SanDisk Corp (NASDAQ: SNDK) was cut to Hold from Buy at WR Hambrecht. The firm said it has learned that a crack in the IP story has occurred, as Samsung has found a way to significantly reduce its royalty payments to SanDisk on its finished SD cards that it is currently shipping. The firm said this step by Samsung puts at risk ~15% of SanDisk royalty revenues as early as Q2:07, as Samsung is no longer willing to pay the 8% royalty rate to SanDisk on NAND MLC SD cards.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Stephens downgraded Group 1 Automotive Inc (NYSE: GPI) to Equal Weight from Overweight following disappointing Q1 results.

• JMP Securities downgraded Flanders Corp (NASDAQ: FLDR) to Market Perform from Outperform.

• Oppenheimer cut ValueClick Inc (NASDAQ: VCLK) to Neutral from Buy on valuation.

• Matrix USA downgraded L-1 Identity Solutions (NYSE: ID) to Sell from Buy on valuation.

• Goldman took Medco Health Solutions Inc (NYSE: MHS) off its Conviction Buy List, citing valuation.

• Raymond James lowered Hiland Holdings (NASDAQ: HPGP) rating to Outperform from Strong Buy.

• JP Morgan cut Waters Corp (NYSE: WAT) to Neutral from Overweight based on valuation.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).