Analyst upgrades:

• Credit Suisse upgraded Motorola (NYSE: MOT) to Outperform from Neutral after the close Monday. The firm believes Motorola's devices segment will approach breakeven in 2010 while operating margins in nonhandset segments will expand, and that a break-up story will reemerge. Credit Suisse raised its target on shares to $9.50 from $7.
• UBS upgraded BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) to Buy from Neutral. The firm cites BHP's leverage to iron ore, coking coal, copper, and oil for its upgrade after raising its commodity price forecasts.
• Merriman upgraded Walter Energy (NYSE: WLT) to Buy from Neutral to reflect higher met coal price forecasts. The firm believes Chinese demand is strong and has a target range of $66-$72 on the stock.
• Intersil (NASDAQ: ISIL) was upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer.
• Coach (NYSE: COH) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Phillips-Van Heusen (NYSE: PVH) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q1 results as it believes management is executing well in the current environment and that the company could meet the high end of guidance. The firm raised its price target to $24 from $19.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded Cliffs Natural (NYSE: CLF) to Outperform from Market Perform as it believes capacity utilization has stabilized and CLF's valuation is attractive at current levels. The firm raised its price target to $27 from $23.
  
• Thomas Weisel believes demand at Microchip's industrial (NASDAQ: MCHP) customers has troughed and that market share loss concerns are unwarranted. The firm upgraded shares to Overweight from Market Weight and raised its target to $27 from $19.
• CBS Corp (NYSE: CBS) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
  
• U-Store It Trust (NYSE: YSI) was raised to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
  
• Ener1 (NASDAQ: HEV) was lifted at Banc of America/Merrill to Buy from Neutral.

Among all the negative economic data that came out last week was a positive surprise: retail sales were higher in January. A fluke or a glimmer at the end of the tunnel? That may depend on whether we see any positive surprises arising from items on this week's economic calendar:

• Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference: Monday through Friday
• NY Empire Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 8:30 AM
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Fed's Bullard speaks before National Association of Business Economists: Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Housing starts (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 8:30 AM
• Fed's Pianalto speaks before Commercial Developers Power Breakfast: Wednesday, 9:00 AM
• Industrial production (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 9:15 AM
• Fed's Bernanke speaks before National Press Club Luncheon: Wednesday, 12:30 PM

So you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for a sign that the markets are safe for reasonable speculation. What are you looking for? Do you want to see a bull market return before committing capital? Are you waiting for signs that the economy is turning the corner? How about corporate earnings improvement?

In the near term I expect to see more and more of the proverbial corporate buybacks. As such, I suggest investors use that event as a signal on individual equity securities. The power of these validations of value can be stunning.

After the market closed on Wednesday, basic materials company, Walter Industries (NYSE: WLT), announced that it would be expanding its stock buyback program by $50 million. On the surface, such amount is a small fraction of the more than $1 billion of market value outstanding, but the move is more than symbolic.

Essentially, management is taking advantage of ridiculously low levels in its stock price. For those looking to establish a position, such a move is a great endorsement of the company and its future.

Analyst upgrades:

• Friedman Billings upgraded Synovus (NYSE: SNV) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation following the recent weakness. BASF (OTC: BASFY) and Akzo Nobel (OTC: AKZOY) were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS on valuation and believes cash flows can cover the company's dividend.
• JP Morgan upgraded H.B. Fuller (NYSE: FUL) to Overweight from Neutral citing benefits from lower raw material costs.
• CA, Inc (NASDAQ: CA) was added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
• Goldman removed Boeing (NYSE: BA) from the Conviction Sell List.
• WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc.

Analyst downgrades:

• Oppenheimer downgraded Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA) to Perform from Outperform following the company's Q3 results as they believe a recovery of revenue from ZT Online will take longer than expected.
• Friedman Billings cut Walter Industries (NYSE: WLT) to Market Perform from Outperform as they believe the decline in steel demand will pressure met coal prices. The company's target was lowered to $30 from $53.
• Citigroup downgraded shares of Atlas Pipeline (NYSE: AHD) Holdings to Sell from Hold as they believe the company could potentially be in violation of its debt covenants as early as Q1. The company's target was lowered to $4 from $31.
• Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) was removed from Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
• Dover (NYSE: DOV) and Emerson Electric (NYSE: EMR) were downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.

Analyst initiations:

While other earnings may have disappointed last week, the news was good for oil giant ConocoPhilips (NYSE: COP). In what some took as a good sign for big oil, the Houston-based company reported that third quarter net income surged 41% year over year to $3.39 per share, and that revenue also surged 52% to $70 billion. We'll see whether the good news extends to other petroleum giants scheduled to report quarterly results this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are looking for BP (NYSE: BP) profits to have grown 43.2% in the most recent quarter to $2.34 per share on revenue of $109.7 billion, and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) to post earnings up 39.4% to $3.25 per share on revenue of $86.8 billion. Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) likewise are expected to report higher net income of $2.33 per share (sales of $23.4 billion), $2.40 per share (sales of $131.4 billion), and $2.65 per share, respectively. Even Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is expected to post earnings slightly higher to $1.46 per share (sales of $36.4 billion), despite the effects of Hurricane Ike. Among these companies, only BP and Valero beat earnings expectations in the previous quarter. Not surprisingly, analysts on average recommend buying all except Valero, and shares of all of these companies have recently hit 52-week lows.

The S&P 500 is down 12% this year. But some stocks are doing spectacularly well.

My newsletter, which has been picking three stocks a month for the last five and a half years, has found several of them. This year, it's up 29% so far. That increase is the rise in the average stock mentioned in the newsletter since its initial mention through the end of June. And it uses a 2% stop loss rule which automatically sells any stock that has declined by 2% and charges that decline against the returns.

Here are the three biggest winners:

• Walter Industry (NYSE: WLT) +156%
• Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN) +44%
• Chart Industries (NYSE: GTLS) +43%

With oil prices on the rise, these three are likely to benefit. But at some point, their valuations will exceed their earnings growth. So keep a close eye on them.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

I don't normally toot my own horn, but stock picks I made earlier this year through my investment newsletter have done far better than the S&P which has fallen 6% since the beginning of the year.

Each month my newsletter mentions three stocks. I average the percentage changes in the stocks I mention at the end of each month. I also have a stop loss rule in which stocks that decline by 2% are sold from the theoretical portfolio and the -2% return is included in the average for the month.

The top three performing stocks through April are:

• Walter Industries (NYSE: WLT) rose 66% from $41.71 to $69.36
• Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN) rose 30% from $32.62 to $42.31
• Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL) rose 21% from $68.80 to $83.07

The Associated Press reports that Asian markets are down between 3% and 4% today and European markets have opened down about 1%. Already this year, the S&P 500 is down 10%. Yet I am convinced investors can make money in this down market.

I have not been that surprised about how bad the economic and stock market news has been this year. I believed that it was coming – in fact I was way too early about it. I remember back in 2005 being quoted about how a housing bubble was building and that it would eventually pop.

I did not know back then about subprime mortgages or how they had been packaged into securities with odd names like Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs). It appears to me that this housing bubble burst is different from the one in the early 1990s thanks to those CDOs.