"One of the best inflationary hedges of the 20th century is often forgotten -- timber," suggests Larry Spears.

The contributing editor to Money Morning explains, "In the modern era, inflation has never been a match for timber. On average, the price of harvested lumber itself has risen more than 5% annually over the past 100 years.

"Since 1910, the value of timberland as an investment has risen faster - and with less volatility - than stocks as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Here's a trio of stocks to benefit from this trend.

Analyst Upgrades

• Aetna (AET) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Kellogg (K) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• PetSmart (PETM) to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• NetApp (NTAP) and Scripps Networks (SNI) to buy from hold at Wunderlich.
• Thoratec (THOR) to buy from hold at Auriga.
• ArcelorMittal (MT) to overweight from neutral at HSBC.
• Bristol-Myers (BMY) to outperform from neutral at Cowen.
• Eaton Vance (EV) to neutral from sell at Ticonderoga.
• Adtran (ADTN) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.

Analyst Upgrades

• Red Hat (RHT) and American Public (APEI) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• KBR (KBR) and Foster Wheeler (FWLT) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Bio-Rad (BIO) to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• Oceaneering (OII) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• ASM International (ASMI) and Avid Technology (AVID) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Dominion Resources (D) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• Nationwide Health Properties (NHP) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Vivus (VVUS) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Intersil (ISIL) to buy from hold at Canaccord.

Analyst Upgrades

• Argus upgraded Weyerhaeuser (WY) to buy from hold, citing the better-than-expected Q1 report and expectations that the company is about to be profitable. The firm has a $59 target on the stock.
• Weeden upgraded Cameron (CAM) to buy from hold as it views the recent sell-off as overdone.
• Oppenheimer upgraded Mobile Mini (MINI) to outperform from perform based on valuation and what the firm sees as the company's attractive risk/reward ratio. The firm set a $25 target.
• Johnson Controls (JCI) was upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• EnerNOC (ENOC) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Janney Montgomery.
• Checkpoint (CKP) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Baird.

Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY - option chain) stock is falling today after the company cut its quarterly dividend to 5 cents from 25 cents. In addition, Weyerhaeuser will defer timber harvest and close some facilities in order to contain costs. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on WY.

This morning, WY opened at $28.64. So far today the stock has hit a low of $28.51 and a high of $29.42. As of 10:40, WY is trading at $28.96, down $1.03 (-3.4%). The chart for WY looks neutral and S&P gives WY a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

• Bernstein upgraded Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation as it believes threats to the core business are priced in at current levels and upside catalysts may come from pipeline news. The firm raised its target on shares to $65 from $57.
• Stephens upgraded CyberSource (NASDAQ: CYBS) to Overweight from Equal Weight on valuation as it believes the recent pullback creates a buying opportunity. The firm raised its target on shares to $16 from $14.
• JPMorgan upgraded Magna (NYSE: MGA) and Tenneco (NYSE: TEN) to Overweight from Neutral on expectations global auto production has sequentially bottomed with European light vehicle production rebounding in Q2. The firm also sees a short-term trading opportunity in TRW Automotive (NYSE: TRW), but keeps a Neutral rating on the stock.
• SINA Corp. (NASDAQ: SINA) was upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman.
• Cogent Communications (NASDAQ: CCOI) was raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.

The Associated Press reports that jobless claims -- at 455,000 -- hit a six-year high in July. Analysts underestimated the total by 25,000, as they forecast 430,000 such claims. When combined with this morning's disappointing July retail sales results, the economy appears to be doing worse than experts expected.

AP reports that many companies announced layoffs recently. These include General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM), Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY), Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) and Bennigan's restaurants. More such layoffs are likely to be announced as the economy prepares a recessionary banquet of woes for the presidential candidates.

The lesson for those interested in economics is pretty clear. You can create the illusion of prosperity by borrowing lots of money. If someone lends me $100 million and I buy a big estate on Long Island, people will think I am rich. But if I can't pay back the loan, the bank will kick me out of the house and suddenly I won't look so well off.

That's what the banks are doing now across wide swaths of the economy. And it will be years before the mess is cleaned up.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

With a turn of the calendar page, we drift into the middle portion of the current quarter, but the earnings season rolls on. Among the many companies scheduled to report quarterly results this coming week are Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Whole Foods Market International (NASDAQ: WFMI). Let's take a look at which companies Wall Street analysts are expecting to be among the top earnings gainers and decliners this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.

• DRS Technologies Inc. (NYSE: DRS): $0.85 EPS (+95.3%) on revenue of $823.8 million (+12.0%)
• Integrys Energy Group Inc. (NYSE: TEG): $0.40 EPS (+70.0%) on revenue of $2.6 billion (+9.7%)
• Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC): $2.53 EPS (+64.4%) on revenue of $599.9 million (+75.4%)
• Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST): $1.51 EPS (+55.6%) on revenue of $456.1 million (+79.1%)
• Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN): $3.28 EPS (+48.5%) on revenue of $4.1 billion (+38.5%)
• CMS Energy Corp. (NYSE: CMS): $0.13 EPS (+46.2%) on revenue of $1.4 billion (+6.7%)
• Transocean Inc. (NYSE: RIG): $3.23 EPS (+43.0%) on revenue of $3.1 billion (+112.9%)
• Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE: SLE): $0.26 EPS (+38.5%) on revenue of $3.5 billion (+8.9%)
• Williams Companies Inc. (NYSE: WMB): $0.69 EPS (+37.7%) on revenue of $3.4 billion (+20.0%)
• Harris Corp. (NYSE: HRS): $0.99 EPS (+28.3%) on revenue of $1.4 billion (+18.0%)

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this is a crucial moment for the dividend-payers, which should be getting support here.

You can't even find protection in yields these days. It just went away. Perhaps we will get it if Sen. Obama gets elected. Perhaps with higher rates. Perhaps with the downfall of the high-yielding American financials. (Nice discussion of the lack of dividend safety courtesy of the man who knows more about dividends than anyone, Dave Peltier, in the Columnist Conversation last week.)

For ages, it seemed you could get to a magic number, typically 4% yield, where stocks would bounce, or at least be given a parachute that opened for a gentle landing.

Last week that parachute failed. You have stocks like Con Ed (NYSE: ED) (Cramer's Take) just getting trashed here, pushing the yield to 6%. You have stocks like Weyerhauser (NYSE: WY) (Cramer's Take), Carnival Cruise (NYSE: CCL) (Cramer's Take), Gannett (NYSE: GCI) (Cramer's Take), just slicing through the protection. The former's got cyclicality, the middle's got consumer and fuel worries, and the latter is in secular. But they all have no trouble paying the dividend.

Or consider Verizon (NYSE: VZ) (Cramer's Take) and AT&T (NYSE: T) (Cramer's Take). The first is at a 5% yield, the other is almost there. No one questions their ability to support that dividend.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• UBS downgraded Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) to Neutral from Buy citing the InBev unsolicited bid.
  
• JP Morgan cut Brasil Telecom (NYSE: BRP) to Underweight from Neutral on concerns over the merger with Telemar.
  
• Piper downgraded Finisar (NASDAQ: FNSR) to Neutral from Buy following strong Q4 results, as they believe the company's acquisition of Optium creates substantial integration risk.

• Merrill cut Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• PDL BioPharma (NASDAQ: PDLI) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  
• Wachovia downgraded McClatchy News (NYSE: MNI) to Underperform from Market Perform.
  
• Archer Daniels (NYSE: ADM) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) to Hold from Buy following the company's investor day, as they were disappointed that no REIT conversion will occur before 2010. Deutsche lowered their target price to $65 from $95.
  
• Citigroup assumed coverage of IFX (NYSE: IFX) and downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy on valuation following the recent rally.
  
• Merrill Lynch cut Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) to Underperform from Neutral. The rating changes reflect Merrill's new rating system based on relative recommendations within the sector.

• Morgan Stanley lowered ReneSola (NYSE: SOL) to Underweight from Equal Weight.
  
• RBC Capital downgraded Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) to Sector Perform from Outperform.
  
• Praxair (NYSE: PX) was downgraded at HSBC to Neutral from Overweight.

RBC downgraded Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) to "sector perform" from "outperform," according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports Morgan Stanley downgraded LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) to "equal weight" from "overweight."

Novartis (NYSE: NVS) was started as "overweight" at JPMorgan, according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial site also reports that Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) was cut to "hold " at Deutsche Bank.