When the CEO of Walmart says that inflation is coming, we best be on the lookout. As head of America's largest retailer, Bill Simon is in a unique place to see inflation traveling all the way through the supply chain.

Walmart's (WMT) advanced computer systems are the some of the largest and most advanced computer systems in the world -- on par with computers the U.S. military uses. Every product and purchase is tracked to get stores resupplied as quickly as possible, usually just in time. As a retailer, Walmart is going to be keeping track of costs and profit margins very closely. Managers all across the company are carefully watching the reports.

Analyst Upgrades

• Red Hat (RHT) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Cogdell Spencer (CSA) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Micron (MU) to neutral from reduce at Nomura.
• El Paso Electric (EE) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• MICROS Systems (MCRS) and Harmony Gold (HMY) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Meridian Bioscience (VIVO) to buy from hold at Canaccord.
• Verso Paper (VRS) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Sony (SNE) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Noble Corp. (NE) and Baker Hughes (BHI) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Tyson Foods (TSN) and Smithfield Foods (SFD) to buy from hold at BB&T.

Shares of retail giant Best Buy (BBY) traded higher Thursday morning after the company posted better-than-expected earnings for its fourth quarter.

Going into the earnings report, analysts had been expecting to see Best Buy report earnings of $1.84 per share for the quarter. Best Buy topped estimates by posting earnings of $1.98 per share.

Target (TGT) has not been a good stock at all since the turn of the year. Take a look at the twelve-month chart. Find where the shares were on Jan. 3. Got it? Now, do you see what happened since then? I don't think you can miss such a big drop.

The 52-week low for the retailer is $48.23; the 52-week high is $60.97. The equity finished down 0.7% to $51.30 on Monday. Volume, thankfully, was below average. That lack of conviction could be a saving grace.

Walmart (WMT) made an announcement yesterday after the bell that presumably would have excited Wall Street. The company's quarterly dividend was raised by 21%. Very nice. So why are the shares off today?

To be fair, they were in positive territory earlier in the morning. Unfortunately, as I write this, with roughly three hours to go before the conclusion of the session, they are down 0.5% to $51.74. Perhaps they will be in the green by the end of the day. When you think about it, though, a 21% jump in a metric that is supposed to be friendly to investors should have received a lot more respect, correct?

What a difference a few months can make. Back in December, I was a bit bearish on Big Lots (BIG). That was at $29.50. Know what the stock closed at yesterday? Its final price was $41.33. And that's rather close to the 52-week high of $42.27.

To fully appreciate how dramatic the rise in the stock has been requires a look at the one-year chart. Impressive, isn't it? I guess I should have been a stronger believer in the retailer. So, what should I be thinking now?

Walmart (WMT) is the world's largest retailer, competing with companies like Target (TGT), Costco (COST), Amazon.com (AMZN) and Best Buy (BBY). The company recently released its earnings for last quarter and we have updated our price estimate to $70.75, which implies a 30% premium to the market price.

One of the outcomes in the earnings was continued improvements in Sam's Club's results. Sam's Club is a warehouse club that charges a membership fee to its customers and gives them an opportunity to buy goods at lowest prices in the market. It offers bulk displays of brand name merchandise, including hard goods, some soft goods, commercial-sized grocery items, and selected private-label items under the "Member' Mark", "Bakers & Chefs" and "Sam's Club" brands in a warehouse club format.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) is certainly the biggest icon in the retail industry. It doesn't seem like such a big name today, though. With a few minutes left until the closing bell sounds, I see a quote of $53.64 for the stock, a price that represents a decline of over 3%. And the volume backing this move is very high, my friends.

The major indexes were volatile today, so that obviously played into the sell-off. However, the fourth-quarter report also gave investors some cause for concern. According to the press release, adjusted income from continuing businesses came in at $1.34 per share. This compares to an adjusted $1.21 per share in the year-ago period.

Barnes & Noble, the Gap, RadioShack, and Sears -- that may sound like the lineup at the local mall, but in fact they are just a few of the retailers scheduled to step into the earnings spotlight this week. Following last week's disappointing January retail sales numbers from the Commerce Department but strong fourth-quarter reports from Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and Nordstrom (JWN), the coming week will offer plenty more data on the sector for investors to mull over.

Walmart

Bentonville-based Walmart (WMT) offered free holiday shipping, closed its Moscow office and named a chief merchandising officer during its fourth quarter. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters forecast earnings for that period to come to $1.31 per share, up from $1.17 in the same quarter of last year. The world's largest retailer also is expected to post revenues of $117.7 billion for the three months that ended in January. That's 3.5% more than a year earlier.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc (WMT) is the world's largest retailer, competing with companies like Target (TGT), Costco (COST), Amazon (AMZN) and Best Buy (BBY). Our price estimate for Wal-Mart stands at $65.42, which implies a premium to market price.

Analyst Upgrades

• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Trinity Industries (TRN) to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Cameron (CAM) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Expedia (EXPE) to positive from neutral at Susquehanna.
• Micron (MU) to buy from hold at Lazard Capital.

Analyst Upgrades

• Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• Petrobras (PBR) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Silvercorp Metals (SVM) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• PROS (PRO) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Power Integrations (POWI) and Monolithic Power (MPWR) to buy from neutral at Roth Capital.
• Diodes (DIOD) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Whole Foods (WFMI) to hold from sell at Hapoalim.
• Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Sappi (SPP) to outperform from neutral at Macquarie.
• Alpha Natural (ANR) to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Watts Water (WTS) to buy from hold at Brean Murray.

Analyst Upgrades

• Athenahealth (ATHN), Ensco (ESV), Pride International (PDE) and Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• CIRCOR (CIR) to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Shaw Group (SHAW) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• MGM Resorts (MGM) and Boyd Gaming (BYD) to buy from neutral, as well as Intrepid Potash (IPI) to neutral from underperform, at BofA/Merrill.
• Carlisle (CSL) to buy from neutral at SunTrust.

Barron's is forecasting a 10% rise in stock prices in 2011 led by big cap stocks. They argue that the big caps have lagged the market for the past decade and are now poised to take the lead, as reported by CNBC.com.

Here are their top ten picks for this year: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Walmart (WMT), Pfizer (PFE), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), General Motors (GM), Cisco Systems (CSCO), United Continental Holdings (UAL), Barrack Gold (ABX), Entergy (ETR), and PepsiCo (PEP).

Perhaps it is the cynic in me, but I was not surprised to read this story about Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) from Bloomberg. The news outlet obtained an e-mail that was sent to Walmart managers instructing them to raise prices on an average of 1,800 types of toys per store. The managers were instructed to perform the price markups "as soon as possible" and were told that the price changes were "to better enable your store and the company to have a successful financial month."

Walmart stated that these price increases went into effect because temporary discounts on products (including toys) ended on November 30. Spokesman Ravi Jariwala, spokesman for Walmart, said in an e-mail, "Once a rollback ends, the item returns to its original everyday low price." That said, Eric Johnson director of the Center for Digital Strategies at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth noted that "In previous years Wal-Mart has come out and hammered everyone with unbelievably low toy prices ... They stepped away from that this year and after Thanksgiving their prices have crept back up."