General Electric (NYSE: GE) didn't see a huge reaction to its earnings on Friday. I think the stock closed up by only a couple pennies. But at least its NBC Universal asset scored a hit with Hellboy II: The Golden Army. According to Boxofficemojo, it topped this weekend's domestic box office with a gross of more than $35 million. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Hancock, however, is close. That film was in second place with a haul of $33 million. By the time final figures are out, Hancock could find itself in first place, but I doubt that's going to happen. This really seemed to be Hellboy's weekend. I have to say, though, that Hancock did much better than I thought it would for its second weekend at bat. The film will easily pull in over $200 million, maybe $250 million, before all is said and done.
Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D was number three with over $20 million. Not a particularly great debut, I don't expect too much action in the coming weeks from this one. Now, Wall-E is an important project for Disney (NYSE: DIS) shareholders since it is another effort from Pixar. Investors are still trying to figure out if the price paid for Pixar will be ultimately worth it. Wall-E is doing pretty well; it came in fourth over the weekend, and its total box-office take so far is about $162 million. Incidentally, Eddie Murphy failed horribly with his film Meet Dave. The movie, from News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), came in seventh with a little over $5 million. I didn't even know it was in the marketplace.
GE and Universal scored again at the multiplex with Wanted, which came in fifth. Its cumulative gross is now more $110 million. See that? GE can leverage quality content to bring in the revenues. If NBC Universal can synergize better with hits like these, then perhaps there won't be such pressure in terms of dumping the asset. For now, though, NBC Universal is a show-me division, and it better keep the hits coming to placate the board.
Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.
"Companies dependent on consumer spending have been under a cloud on Wall Street," cautions Chuck Carlson, the industry's leading expert on dividend reinvestment plans.
"However, Disney (NYSE: DIS) is one of those consumer-dependent stocks where conventional wisdom may not be correct," he adds in his The DRIP Investor.
"With $4-per-gallon gasoline, one would think that the high cost of travel would take some steam out of the firm's theme park attendance. However, recent results on this front were decent, and the firm's other businesses have held up, too.
"To be sure, a prolonged recession would impact business. Still, Disney has done a nice job of positioning its theme parks as an affordable vacation for families, and that should help it continue to weather economic weakness.
"Disney surprised Wall Street with the resiliency of its theme-park and resort business in the fiscal second quarter. Revenue for the unit jumped 11% in the quarter. Results were aided by a boost in international visitors taking advantage of the weak dollar.
Well, I was wrong about Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Hancock. Sure, I knew it was going to be the number-one movie over the Fourth of July holiday period, but come on, who didn't know that? As of this writing, Boxofficemojo estimates that the Will Smith picture took in $66 million over the three-day timeframe. However, Hancock had opened earlier in the week, and I thought that, by the time all was said and done, the film's cumulative gross by now would have been well over $100 million. Well, the cume now stands at around $107 million. I was thinking more along the lines of $125 million and above for a total tally by this point. Hancock came in a little weaker than expected, considering what seemed to be a very awesome cinematic experience as communicated by the marketing campaign.
Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Wall-E came in second over the weekend with around $33 million. The Pixar cartoon now has about $128 million to its credit. Wanted, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, was third with over $20 million. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Get Smart and DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda were fourth and fifth, respectively. Here's an interesting note on Get Smart. Even after the holiday weekend, and after having been out in the marketplace for a few weekends, it still has yet to reach a total gross of $100 million. As of now, it has a little over $98 million in the bank. That number may change a bit when final figures are in, but in this day and age, when a summer movie with such star power (it stars Steve Carell) doesn't reach $100 million by the second weekend or sooner, it can't be considered super blockbuster material.
Well, it wasn't a terribly exciting box-office weekend. Frankly, I thought there would be more fireworks for the Fourth from these films. And as for all the stocks mentioned here, the bear market will probably keep them weak. The most direct play on the movie business is obviously DreamWorks Animation, and I would wait for that one to come in more before thinking about buying.
Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.
It's the Fourth of July weekend, and movie studios want to capture as much money for their films as possible, even if they've already been in the theaters for several weeks. No matter what, though, Sony (NYSE: SNE)'s Hancock, starring the always excellent Will Smith, is set to be the financial superhero of the weekend. Already, as of this writing, the film has taken in about $24 million through Wednesday, according to Boxofficemojo. The movie had some showings on Tuesday before its official debut in the middle of the week. It was number one on Wednesday, followed by Disney (NYSE: DIS)'s Wall-E. The robot flick so far has a total tally of around $86 million.
Poor Marvel (NYSE: MVL) and its The Incredible Hulk project. Will anybody be interested in seeing the big green guy now that Hancock is in the marketplace? Indeed, Hulk took in less than a million bucks on Wednesday, and it ranked number seven for that day. Looks like the Hulk fever is winding down at the multiplex, and it looks like Marvel's stock has had its run for the time being. The stock closed on Thursday at $31.20, well away from the 52-week high of $37.41. I still hold Marvel shares, and although there are no big catalysts on the immediate horizon, I have a long-term outlook on the company. Still, the trader in me wishes that I had lightened up on the position back at the $37 level to book some gains.
Hancock should do well north of $100 million once the Fourth of July holiday period has passed. The marketing, in my opinion, is very compelling, and from what I know about the story, it's a smart idea that provides a nice balance to the frivolous plots of Iron Man and Hulk (I'm using the term "frivolous" here with affection). Sony's scored a hit, maybe even a new franchise (I haven't seen the film, so I can't say if a sequel is feasible or not within the confines of the concept), but it won't do much to move the company's stock. Those looking to play the Hollywood game might want to wait for Marvel to pull back further from current levels.
Disclosure: I own Disney and Marvel; positions can change at any time.
I didn't think Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Wall-E movie would do as well as it did over the weekend. I thought $60 million was too much to hope for (see my previous piece on the subject). I was wrong. According to Boxofficemojo, the Pixar picture pulled in more than $62 million at domestic theaters and came out on top.
Assuming the film continues to do well in upcoming weekends, Wall-E should provide a nice counterbalance to the relative disappointment of Disney's Prince Caspian project that was released in May. While Wall-E won't move Disney's stock all by itself, the movie and its characters should help drive the studio segment in future quarters, as well as provide some opportunities for promotions and initiatives in other parts of the company, such as the theme parks.
Wanted, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, debuted in second place with a haul of more than $50 million. The movie, starring Angelina Jolie, had some snazzy, Matrix-like commercials powering its appeal. I can see why the numbers were big on this one. Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) and Get Smart didn't stand a chance against Wanted. It dropped two spots to third place with a tally of $20 million. And, no, I still don't find Steve Carell funny.
Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) has an interesting weekend coming up. The new Pixar film, Wall-E, opened today. While everyone expects it to be a hit, no one knows yet how big a hit it will ultimately be.
Pixar, of course, is a major brand in computer-generated cartoons. Its major competition is DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA). The latter's most recent hit, Kung Fu Panda, opened earlier this summer box-office season with a $60.2 million first-weekend take, according to Boxofficemojo. Last year, Ratatouilledebuted with a first-weekend take of $47 million. In my mind, for Wall-E to please shareholders and show Disney that its Pixar brand is a reliable money machine, the animated feature needs to do at least $60 million. It can't do anywhere near the Ratatouille flick since that was an example of weak opening performance, in my opinion.
I read a great review on Wall-E at the Hollywood Reporter. The author heaps praises on the film and says that Pixar's streak of success is intact. That's pretty pleasing. Yet, the review also worries me to some extent (I'm a Disney shareholder). The author says that there isn't a lot of dialogue in the picture (I guess the robot characters don't speak) and that it might be such a smart project that some moviegoers might not fully appreciate it. In this competitive timeframe, that doesn't make me feel good. I'd rather the film be simple blockbuster material for the popcorn crowd. I don't want the young kids in the audience to feel their attention spans being strained in the least. I'm not looking for art in this case. I just want my company to make as much money as possible.
Since last year's summer movie preview featured mostly sequels and adaptations, this year's preview has been expanded to include more than just potential "blockbusters." The following is a chronological list of not only the most hyped film fare of the summer, but other noteworthy smaller entries, and a short commentary on each.
5/2 - Iron Man, Viacom (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount Pictures The first of two big Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) adaptations of the summer, the Robert Downey Jr. led Iron Man has been getting a ton of hype and critical acclaim. This is the second year that a comic book adaptation has kicked off the summer, following last year's Spider-Man 3, which grossed over $150M over its opening weekend.
5/9 - Speed Racer, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)'s Warner Bros. Another big-budget adaptation of a generations-old cartoon. Last year's Transformers was, to my surprise, a huge success, so maybe Speed Racer, in the capable directing hands of the Wachowskis, can be as well.
Look out, DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) -- your arch enemy, Disney (NYSE: DIS), wants to be king of animation at the cinema over the next few years. Actually, I suppose other companies who produce animation, such as Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Viacom (NYSE: VIA), should watch out as well.
According to a Disney press release, ten cartoons will be released through 2012. The lineup sounds pretty impressive. We'll be seeing the third Toy Story movie in the summer of 2010, and two years later, audiences will be revving up for a Cars sequel. During the holiday season of 2011, a Pixar fairy tale called "The Bear and the Bow" will be weaving its magic (hopefully) in the multiplexes, which is interesting, because during the summer of that same year, Pixar will be releasing something called "newt", so fans will get two Pixar properties three years from now. Other animated projects include Bolt, which will use the voice talents of John Travolta and Miley Cyrus, and The Princess and the Frog.
Whew, there was a lot of cool intellectual properties in that press release, and as a Disney shareholder, I am excited at the prospects. But this isn't just about a bunch of cartoons, my friends -- not at all. This is a huge test for Bob Iger. Was he correct in spending billions to acquire Pixar and its talent trust, specifically John Lasseter? Mr. Lasseter, the chief creative officer for both Walt Disney Animation and Pixar Animation Studios, has a lot of pressure weighing down upon his shoulders. Not sure if he would actually admit that, but he does. He's the man who's supposed to see Disney's animation assets into the future, to bring Disney's animation brand back to prominence. Many people thought that Disney was losing its way in terms of traditional animation; to add insult to injury, some were questioning whether Pixar, when it wasn't part of Disney proper, was what Disney used to be -- innovative in its creativity, obsessed with quality, and driven to provide a moving experience for animation fans whenever they sat before the silver screen.
So, we'll see whether those billions invested in the Pixar acquisition truly will reap stellar returns on invested capital. It will be the performance of the non-Pixar films that will tell the tale.
Disclosure: I own shares of Disney; positions can change at any time.
Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Paramount studios had a pretty kickin' year at the multiplex in 2007. According to Boxofficemojo.com, Paramount came out on top in terms of market share at 15.5%. It distributed some great hits -- Transformers, the DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) films Shrek the Third and Bee Movie, Will Ferrel's Blades of Glory comedy, and Eddie Murphy's Norbit. Viacom's movie business seems to be doing better. According to the latest 10Q for the reporting period ending September 30, 2007, operating income for the filmed-entertainment segment was $71.7 million versus a loss of nearly $8 million in the previous year's comparable quarter (the nine-month period still showed a loss). So, Paramount needs to keep the momentum going this year. How will it top the power of last summer's blockbuster Transformers? With a little swashbuckling help from Indiana Jones, of course!
To get things started, the media company sent out a press release alerting fans of fast-paced adventure that the first teaser trailer for Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skullwill be released on February 14 during ABC's Good Morning America program and in theaters across the globe. For those of us who've been waiting with a will of patience that was oftentimes as excruciating and as taxing as sitting through yet another news item about Britney Spears' latest mental breakdown, this is one heck of a Valentine, although I do hate teaser trailers (they are, after all, such a tease!).
Will the new Indy flick be a big hit this summer? I think it will be, although it isn't an absolute given, since a lot of the younger demos probably find the Raiders aesthetic a bit antiquated these days; plus, there will be stiff competition from Disney's (NYSE: DIS) new Pixar cartoon Wall-E, Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Dark Knight, and Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Incredible Hulk project. Still, we're talking about George Lucas and Steven Spielberg here, and they still retain a lot of cultural pull with all demographics. Viacom and Paramount will probably be happy with the results from Crystal Skull come the summer , although I think it's safe to assume that Lucas and Spielberg will be taking a large portion of the grosses. Nevertheless, Viacom is in on the action, and I'm sure it wouldn't want it any other way.
Man, I remember loving THQ (NASDAQ: THQI). For a while, the company and stock were doing well; I recall watching it go from $20 a stub to $36 in recent times. But you know the old adage -- what goes up, must -- or, may, at least, when it comes to stocks -- come down. And down THQ came. Its recent quarter shows just how low things have gotten.
In the video game publisher's latest quarter, net revenue increased 7% to about $510 million. Kind of disappointing for a video game concern to post a top-line increase in the single digits for a holiday quarter that is supposed to be in the thick of the new console cycle. After all, Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3, and the juggernaut known as the Nintendo Wii are all stoking the flames of gamer interest. But the real disappointment can be found in the horrible bottom-line performance. Yes, even though THQ is the home to SpongeBob SquarePants, not even that wily, sweet, pineapple-dwelling creature could offset increased costs and charges related to canceled games (say good-bye to the Juiced and Stuntman franchises) to save THQ from posting a whopping 76% drop in diluted income from continuing operations: 21 cents per share versus 88 cents a year earlier.
This summer was a very profitable one for box offices nationwide, with four movies grossing over $300M, and at least another nine grossing over $100M -- signaling in a big way the resurgence of the movie industry, which had been struggling for the last few years.
The four big $300M+ winners of the summer were Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) 'sSpider-Man 3, which grossed $336M in the U.S., Viacom, Inc (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount's Shrek the Third, which grossed $320M, Transformers, also from Paramount, which grossed $311M, and The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS)'s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, which grossed $308M.
Three of the four were third installments of well established big-budget franchises, so their success is hardly shocking, but the Transformers success clearly marks the start of a new blockbuster franchise (the release date of the sequel has been announced -- June 26, 2009). The robot-action extravaganza, which was directed by Michael Bay, was definitely a surprise, as I remarked in my summer movie preview that Transformers "has flop written all over it... there cannot possibly be enough substance in a story about alien robots that transform into vehicles to make this a hit with the general public." I was wrong -- very wrong. The movie killed at the box office, grossing over $330M on a $150M budget, and prompting a re-release on IMAX, which opened last week.
Companies start to believe their own PR hype. Investors push a stock past logical limits. A company seems about to break down or break out. These are just a few things that can signal a stock with attitude. And... That attitude can be good or bad for the stock price since attitude always catches up with reality. At least on Wall Street that is.
Disney (NYSE:DIS) was up $0.60 (+1.70%) Thursday to $35.85 on news about a robot named Wall-E starting to appear in promotions for one of their computer animated movies scheduled for release in June 2008 . Or could it have been the announcement that Moody's may raise the company's debt rating because of of improving profits from operations? I'll bet it was the second one that got investors excited enough to give this stock a hefty boost in trading yesterday. Disney already has the highest possible S&P 5 STAR rating, and out of the 17 other analysts who cover the stock 4 give it a strong buy, 3 a moderate buy, 9 a hold, and one lone party pooper gives it a sell.
What other company has an end-to-end entertainment production, promotion, and delivery system like Disney? None that I know. Who else can promote that June 2008 animated feature release for months on several cable TV channels and on the ABC Network during Desperate Housewives and Lost? Then, after you've seen the movie, catch the ride at one of the Disney theme parks.
Other entertainment companies like General Electric (NYSE:GE), News Corp (NYSE:NWS), Tribune (NYSE: TRB), and even Time-Warner (NYSE:TWX) just can't put together the kind of grand-scale media leverage that Disney seems to have down to a paint-by-numbers science. If you're looking for a bullish hedged play on Disney, consider an April covered call around the 35 level. You might even catch a bit of this stock's small dividend and wait until you see what kind of perks they have for shareholders.
DISCLOSURE NOTE: Mr. Schiller owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.