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Disney (DIS): Entertainment turnaround

"Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) is arguably the most prominent entertainment operation in the world today, with one of the world's most recognized brands across all of its major business segments" says George Putnam.

In The Turnaround Letter, he observes, "We believe that the current market volatility and economic weakness provide an opportunity to buy into a preeminent global brand at a temporarily depressed price."

"Disney controls theme parks, such as Disneyland and Disney World; television networks, including ABC and ESPN; movie studios, and character-themed consumer products.

"While the company's financial results have been hurt temporarily by the global economic weakness, we believe it is well positioned to prosper again when economic conditions improve.

Continue reading Disney (DIS): Entertainment turnaround

Option Update: Disney volatility elevated; shares near 30-month low

Disney (NYSE: DIS) closed at $28.26 Monday. DIS is expected to report Q4 EPS in early November. DIS November option implied volatility of 54 is above it 26-week average of 31 according to Track Data, suggesting larger movement.

Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR) closed at $70.10 Monday. WHR is scheduled to report Q3 EPS in late October. WHR overall option implied volatility of 83 is above its 26-week average of 44 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) closed at $34.20 Monday. Crude oil futures are recently up 3.89% to $91.23 according to Bloomberg. PBR October option implied volatility is at 167; November is at 127; above its 26-week average of 48 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Serious Money: Good news in crushing market - CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA & XEL

The Dow Jones is down around 300 points again (Update: closed down 450) so it's time to revisit my stable stock picks to see how they are holding up. Each of my five picks is beating the market and all of them are up despite crushing news in the financial sector every day since my last report.

The prediction business is highly speculative, but I gave it a try anyway, searching for stocks that would hold their value. This update is a spot-check of my earlier post, Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times. The closing prices are from yesterday but these companies are doing well in today's down market too as the government steps in again and bails out AIG with $85 billion.

The standard for comparison is the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The S&P closed yesterday at 1,213.59, down 5.47%. The percentage gains for the stable stocks do not include dividends. They are up 4% for a 9.47% advantage. The volatility in the market today may alter some of the data points so expect an after market update. Update: the following five stocks remain ahead of the market but they did turn down in the last hour.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $64.34 and paid a 2.89% dividend yield. It finished at $69.80 -- up 8.48% -- and is trading up this morning. JNJ was featured in Barron's this week as the most respected from the top 100 companies in the world. Final Update: down $-0.29 to $69.51

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $45.80 and paid a 1% dividend yield. It finished at $45.96 -- no change -- and is trading slightly down this morning. Teva is the largest generic drug company in the world and just got bigger throught the acquisition of Barr Pharmaceuticals. Final Update: down $-1.25 to $44.11

Continue reading Serious Money: Good news in crushing market - CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA & XEL

Serious Money: How 'Stable' after 345 DJIA drop? -- CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA & XEL

I was out all morning and returned to my desk to find employment and retail numbers sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling down 345 points today. That made me think it was important to check out how stable my stable stocks -- stocks with the ability to ride out this bearish run -- were doing in bad times.

This update is a spot-check of my earlier post Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, to see how my picks are holding up so far. Closing prices are for today.

The standard for comparison is the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The S&P closed today at 1,236.82, down 3.37%. The percentage gains do not include dividends. Four out of five of my picks beat all the indices; CB was close.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- when recommended the stock closed at $64.34 and paid a 2.89% dividend yield. It finished at $70.45 -- up 9.5%

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) -- when recommended the stock closed at $45.80 and paid a 1% dividend yield. It finished at $47.92 -- up 4.63%.

Continue reading Serious Money: How 'Stable' after 345 DJIA drop? -- CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA & XEL

Serious Money: 'Stable stocks' update - CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA & XEL

Well, the market was in the dumps yesterday and is even worse today. So this may be a good time to check on my list of stocks for those looking for equities that are stable enough to ride out this bearish storm.

This update is a spot-check of my earlier post Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, to see how my picks are holding up so far. Closing prices are for August 12, 2008.

The standard for comparison will be the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The following are the five stocks with closing prices from July 1.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- when recommended the stock closed at $64.34 and paid a 2.89% dividend yield. It finished at $71.70 -- up 11.44%

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) -- when recommended the stock closed at $45.80 and paid a 1% dividend yield. It finished at $46.41-- up 1.3%.

3) Chubb Corp. (NYSE: CB) -- when recommended the stock closed at $49.01 and paid a 2.64% dividend yield. It finished at $48.39 -- down 1.26%.

Continue reading Serious Money: 'Stable stocks' update - CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA & XEL

Serious Money: Spot-checking 'stable stocks'

Updating the story with the final numbers heading into the week end. The market looked sad again today, so I thought I would spot-check Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, to see if my picks, (suggested watchlist considerations) were holding up...so far so good, sort of...

The standard for comparison will be the Standard & Poors 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The following are the five stocks with closing prices from July 1.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) closed at $64.34 and pays a 2.89% dividend yield. (NOW $66.53 -- up 3.4%) finished at $66.26 -- up 2.98%.

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) closed at $45.80 and pays a 1% dividend yield.( NOW 42.58 -- down 7%) finished at $41.78 -- down 8.78%.

3) Chubb Corp (NYSE: CB) closed at $49.01 and pays a 2.64% dividend yield. (NOW $47.51 -- down 3%) finished at $47.56 -- down 2.96%.

Continue reading Serious Money: Spot-checking 'stable stocks'

Serious Money: Tracking five stable stocks

After seeing the interest in yesterday's Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, I decided to track the stocks on a quarterly basis to see how they hold up over time (otherwise, what would be the purpose of discussing them in the first place?).

I said that all five have shrewd, conservative management teams and have been in the right place, at the right time -- and prepared. The standard for comparison will be the Standard & Poors 500 Index which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. Although my original story was published yesterday, I will be using the second quarter end point for my five stocks as well.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) closed at $64.34 and pays a 2.89% dividend yield.

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) closed at $45.80 and pays a 1% dividend yield.

3) Chubb Corp (NYSE: CB) closed at $49.01 and pays a 2.64% dividend yield.

Continue reading Serious Money: Tracking five stable stocks

Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times

Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees.

Many of them were the stocks we might have looked to in the past for stability, so you can be sure I put forward my five candidates with a little trepidation, but forward I go anyway. First a little review is in order.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) dropped from around $53 per share last year to around $30 in January and we can buy it today for around $17. Even at that price Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has downgraded it to a sell and thinks there is more bad news to come. Citigroup was the largest bank in the world. Not any more.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) was the largest car maker in the world. That was before the stock tumbled from $43 to its current $11 range. A crushing blow to long time investors hoping that someone in the company could stop the ship from sinking.

Continue reading Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times

Kobe makes 'Final Four' with BUD, ETFC, GM & MCD - NBA still in business

Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher with refereeYesterday could have been the end of the NBA season, but the Los Angeles Lakers forced a game six in Boston -- not so much by winning; more by having a "refuse to lose" finish that they could not muster before. I am quite sure David Stern is fine with that outcome. ESPN, and ABC television owned by Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) must be ecstatic. The NBA officials will earn another paycheck, and the sponsors? They are praying for a game seven for sure!

Yesterday, prior to the game, I posted Sunday Funnies: Lakers/Celtics -- NBA business success, and dedicated much of the word flow to all the clamoring about NBA officiating and reasons why the game had issues. Today is all the about the cash.

While the Super Bowl is the hugest of events, an NBA Finals is a saga with twists and turns, and this one so far has had many. The Lakers face insurmountable odds of winning two games in Boston so they have been as much as counted out already.

Laker star and NBA Most Valuable Player Kobe Bryant has posed the most interesting perspective on the challenge his team faces that I can ever remember. He said, prior to the game, that since he did not go to college he viewed his situation like making the Elite Eight referring to Division I college basketball March Madness. He said, you just have to feel grateful you are there and know that you have to win three games to win the tournament.

Continue reading Kobe makes 'Final Four' with BUD, ETFC, GM & MCD - NBA still in business

Is Miley Cyrus's billion dollar money train screeching to a halt?

The Daily News reports that ratings for Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) Hannah Montana program are down 24% since Mileygate broke last week. Last Sunday's new episode's ratings fell 24% from the previous fresh episode, which aired just under two months earlier. And ratings are down 33% since the first episode in January.

Disney thinks everything's fine with Miley. The Daily News quotes CEO Bob Iger as saying: "With a new season of shows coming up, a new record in July and a theatrical film next year, the 'Hannah Montana'/Miley Cyrus franchise is incredibly robust." But kid franchises such as "Hannah" that peak at very high levels are good for roughly 18 months, then start to fade.

Will this have any effect on the $1 billion business that is Miley Cyrus? It depends on whether she can find a new -- older -- audience and deliver what it wants as effectively as she did for the 10 to 14 set. If Mileygate helps her do that then her business will be fine.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Disney securities.

Disney (DIS) second quarter earnings preview

Tomorrow afternoon Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) will be answering Wall Street's questions about the strength of its US amusement parks when it reports its second quarter earnings.

The last time that Disney reported earnings was February 5, when the company topped analysts' estimates of 52 cents per share by a whopping 11 cents.

This time, analysts expect earnings of 51 cents a share on sales of $8.51 billion, compared with 43 cents and revenue of $8.07 billion a year earlier. Sales are expected to decline year-over-year as a result of the weak market conditions hurting Disney's theme parks, particularly its Walt Disney World in Florida.

Continue reading Disney (DIS) second quarter earnings preview

Disney, no! Don't remake "The Lone Ranger!"


I may turn out wrong about this, but I think Disney (NYSE: DIS) is making a mistake by working on a contemporary version of The Lone Ranger. According to The Hollywood Reporter, this is an upcoming project for producer Jerry Bruckheimer and the screenwriters Ted Elliott and Terry Rossio. Recognize the names? Yeah, they're from the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise.

Oh, man, as soon as I saw this headline, I immediately screamed inside my head -- I mean, what the heck are execs at Disney thinking?! I am so glad that even the Reporter article seemed to subtly question the worthiness of this idea, calling some of the elements of The Lone Ranger character possibly "musty to today's audiences." That's exactly what I was thinking! Look -- I know Bruckheimer and the gang are going to make sure this is all action-oriented and that it will have quick cuts and be fast and all of that great cinematic stuff, but, seriously -- The Lone Ranger? You're remaking The Old -- sorry -- Lone Ranger? No, as a Disney shareholder, this doesn't work for me. But here's a big suggestion -- make the storyline supernatural! Have the Lone Ranger chase a group of undead bandits or something. And by the way, please -- I didn't see any mention in the article of who will portray The Lone Ranger, so I'm assuming he hasn't been cast yet, so let me just say that you shouldn't give in to temptation and cast Johnny Depp in the role. That guy will be way too expensive.

This just isn't a strong concept to me. The Lone Ranger is a very ancient brand -- no offense intended, of course, it's just that, again, as a shareholder, I want the studio division to have the best possible chance of making a lot of money. This does not represent the best possible chance, and I don't think this remake will be as successful as Pirates. Disney should leave this one to the competition -- let Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), Sony (NYSE: SNE), or News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) roll this particular pair of dice.

Continue reading Disney, no! Don't remake "The Lone Ranger!"

Should Disney salvage its retail chain?

I just read something that kind of shocked me as a Disney (NYSE: DIS) shareholder. In a sense, I almost don't believe the news. It looks like Disney might be re-exposing itself to the retail business in North America.

Remember, it wasn't so long ago that the Mouse decided to exit retail because of difficulties in that part of its consumer-products business -- it had given up its Disney Store operations to Children's Place (Nasdaq: PLCE).

Now, however, Children's Place is having difficulties of its own, and it has decided to enter into negotiations to hand the Disney Stores back to its original owner. According to this article from yesterday, Disney could theoretically take back two-thirds of the current Disney Store portfolio. Children's Place, as one might expect, was up significantly on the news.

Without a doubt, I don't want to see Disney back in this retail business. I have too many memories in terms of challenges at the chain. There was a time when stores such as these were strong -- remember Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) popular-but-now-just-a-memory retail brand? -- but those times seem to have passed for now, at least.

I think Disney should concentrate on higher-margin licensing operations and leave the game of sales-per-square foot to others. Of course, I do understand that Disney might be thinking that it is in its interest not to let the chain just disappear. That might be a bit of a black eye on the corporate face of the Mouse, but I just don't believe that salvaging the retail chain should be part of Disney's long-term strategic goals at the moment.

With the recession upon us, consumers' wallets are already distracted enough. Disney is doing well right now with its various business segments, but diverting any focus to even two-thirds of the Disney Store locations is two-thirds too many.

Disclosure: I own shares of Disney; positions can change at any time.

Disney's virtual pixie dust

Anyone who follows Disney (NYSE: DIS) knows that the media conglomerate is serious about videogames -- it should be, considering that consoles from Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) are currently cooking in the industry's new cycle. The company has been increasing its investments in this area, and it will continue to do so; making games for Nintendo's DS hand-held system, as well as other platforms, has become a priority. But Disney is also serious about the synthesis of virtual worlds -- you know, the kind of online gaming platforms that can suck a person's life away due to their addictive, immersive scope.

Well, the powers that be at the Mouse have decided that a dedicated team of professionals is needed to ensure a proper presence in the virtual-world space. According to a press release, Disney has created Disney Online Studios for the express purpose of programming new online entertainment platforms. It seems that the company wants to leverage the promise of social networking -- hope you're not too sick of that buzz phrase -- by creating worlds that allow gamers to interact with each other via community tools in addition to playing around in he worlds themselves. Right now, Disney operates Toontown, and it plans on developing immersive online environments for the company's Fairies and Cars franchises. Pirates of the Caribbean has also been given the online treatment; and let's not forget the acquisition of the popular Club Penguin destination.

Continue reading Disney's virtual pixie dust

Newspaper wrap-up: PDVSA cuts Exxon Mobil off

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that analysts are looking to assess the significance of a new accounting problem at American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) which includes "material weakness" the company's auditor found that relates to subprime exposure.
  • China Mobile Limited (NYSE: CHL) is expected to announce its support today for Long Term Evolution, a wireless broadband standard gaining strong momentum as the next-generation wireless technology for providing super-fast web surfing on cellular phones, the Financial Times reported.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • According to the Associated Press, Petroleos de Venezuela SA said it has stopped selling crude oil to Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM). The decision, made "as an act of reciprocity" for Exxon's "judicial-economic harassment," will also include the suspension of commercial relations with the U.S. company.
WEB SITES:
  • Reuters reported that The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) signed a deal to buy 20% of Net TV, a digital television company controlled by Spanish media company Vocento.

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Last updated: November 06, 2009: 06:02 AM

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